Those arguments are wrong, but the idea that gluten exposure has some effect on your risk of getting celiac isn't. After all, you have to have exposure if you're going to develop a nasty reaction. The Swedish epidemic was associated with a shift toward eating more gluten-containing foods in early childhood, but subsequent clinical trials haven't found any effect of high gluten consumption on risk of developing celiac. But the idea that more gluten equals more risk has stuck around. A recent study in the Journal of the American Medical Association found that one gram of gluten eaten above baseline elevated a child's risk of celiac disease from 20.7 to 27.9 percent. Eating as little as one slice of bread per day (that's about two grams of gluten) elevated the risk. That's going on what kids ate from age zero to five, where the risk of developing celiac peaked around age three. And, most importantly, it was only in kids who were genetically predisposed to it.