History and climatology both say Florence should curve out to sea. A quick look at all previous tropical cyclones that passed within 200 nautical miles of Hurricane Florence’s current position shows that each save for one—an unnamed storm back in 1901—recurved out to sea and never posed a serious threat to the United States. However, history is a guide rather than a rule. The atmosphere is fluid, and it acts accordingly. There are several factors influencing Florence’s eventual track, all acting to push and pull the hurricane closer to land or farther out to sea, and it’s too soon to tell which will prevail.