A senior official at the International Energy Agency turned whistleblower just prior to the release of a major IEA report, and claimed that the international organization has downplayed a looming oil shortage to appease the U.S. and prevent panic buying.
The anonymous whistleblower apparently told his story to The Guardian on the eve of the new World Energy Outlook report that went public Tuesday. He alleged that the international watchdog has bowed to U.S. pressure to underplay the decline of existing oil fields and overplay the possibility of tapping new fields.
Outside economists and energy experts have already criticized a figure within the new report that states oil production can grow from 83 million barrels per day to 105 million barrels per day by 2030.
The whistleblower added that the IEA had already dropped its 2030 estimates from 120 million barrels a day to 116 million, and then 105 million. He also said that many IEA members believe maintaining oil supplies at just 90 million or 95 million barrels per day seems impossible.
These claims seem backed by a second IEA source who has already left the watchdog agency, but similarly wished to remain anonymous. He told The Guardian that the IEA had a rule of not angering the U.S., and affirmed that the world has already entered the peak oil zone.
Whatever the case with the actual oil production figures, the IEA report seems sobering enough in its predictions. The IEA predicts that the world needs to invest $26 trillion through 2030 for new energy projects to meet growing demand, and another $10.5 trillion toward mitigating greenhouse gas emissions. To the guys and gals meeting at Copenhagen in December and hoping to tackle the issue of climate change, we say "No pressure."
But seriously, almost everyone not hiding in a cave recognizes that our cars and homes won't run on fossil fuel energy sources forever. That's why we created PopSci's realist roadmap to 2050 for energy. It's also why the U.S. Department of Energy's new mad science lab has begun spraying funding in all directions for breakthrough technologies that could boost energy efficiency and improve renewable sources.
This doesn't follow. If the report is accurate, it would help to make an even better case for researching alternative and green enegry / tech today... Why would the Obama Administration wish to keep it secret? It is far enough in the future not to create panic, but near enough to engender support for alternative energy funding...
We still have lots of coal and uranium to burn, not to mention growing use of wind and solar. Nothing to worry about here.
IEA's suppressing of the urgency of an imminent peak oil disaster is a strategy designed by Big Oil to lull us into a peak oil crisis with silly renewable schemes, suppressing the easy peasy nuclear power option and making a monstrous profit for IEA's Big Oil sponsors when the crisis hits.
Contrary to the IEA's recent and other similar “renewable” biased studies, it is actually economically feasible to within ten years end all world fossil fuel use with nuclear power putting Big Oil out of business. Since these studies are generally done under Big Oil's sponsorship it is a requirement for funding that nuclear power be excluded from consideration. The problem is Big Oil uses campaign donations to corrupt our politicians who work for them not us.
Compare some “renewable” favorites to a nuclear option.
The Hyperion hot tub sized $30 million nuke (122 sales, 2013 delivery). Sealed up, they run for 7 to 10 years then spews a softball sized bit of waste that can be burned in a Gen IV reactor.
Compare the unit to a proposed wind farm in Texas - 240 massive Chinese built multimegawatt wind turbines on 56 sq miles of concrete, roads and steel, Chinese financed for $1.5 billion. 600 megawatts peak, 125 megawatts average, $12000 kilowatt baseload eqv excluding storage, transmission, and millions annually for load balancing natural gas. Same energy as two Hyperion units or electric power as five located in nearby substations for 4% and 10% wind cost.
How about Arcadia Fl, where we have covering 180 acres America's largest solar photovoltaic plant, 5 megawatts baseload equivalent, 180 acres of arsenic,steel and concrete, cost $150 million. 7% the thermal or 20% electric energy of that Hyperion hot tub buried in a substation nearby.
In East Toba, BC, Plutonic Power produces 745 GWh of small hydro annually, 80 megawatts baseload equiv, $660 M. Same energy as a Hyperion unit or electric power as three for between 7 and 20 times the cost. Hyperion units buried under the nearest substation - river run 38 sq miles of forest, concrete, roads, transmission lines and steel.
The Hyperion on energy equivalents is 1% of solar, 2% of small hydro, and 4% of wind cost, a tiny percentage of the civil resources, and provides 24/7 power.
A Hyperion unit weighs in at about 15 tons about the size of 10 vehicles and a lot less complex. 50000 of them would be needed to convert America from fossils to nuclear about the equivalent of a half million vehicles - 5% of America's annual vehicle production.
Renewables make us feel warm and righteous dancing us down the road to the as little as ten years away climate/peak oil driven economic and even civilization collapse while $1.5 trillion in Hyperion nukes, paid for by ending the America's $1 trillion annual fossil fuel bill could with an extreme effort here and abroad save us.
You want to exchange Big Oil for Big Nuclear. but then again all the renewable supporters want Big Solar or Big Wind so ehh.
Yes, dependence on fossil fuels should be changed. However, let’s not forget about the millions of good paying jobs in this country that are associated directly or indirectly with "Big Oil". Big Oil as it has been wrongly named actually buys and services thousands of vehicles a year of all sizes and types made right here in the USA. They also buy tons of steel, chemicals, valves, fittings, hoses... and the list goes on from factories and business from all over this great nation. Big Oil also hires lots of college graduates in multiple fields and does internships for experience. Big Oil also employs or uses Lawyers, Doctors, Chemists, Environmentalists, Engineers, Surveyors, Construction Crews, Shipping Crews, Truck Drivers, Tug Boat Operators... and the list goes on again.
We are a country that believes or used to believe in capitalism! Everyone is down on Big Oil for their profits. It would be my guess that if Nuclear was making these profits, someone would be offended by the term Big Nuclear!
It is these very profits made by hard work all over the globe, as well as right here in the USA that keeps millions of us directly or indirectly employed. YES, your Prius still takes fossil fuels to operate and be manufactured, shipped and deliver it to the local dealer. Thank you Big Oil for helping manufacture, ship and deliver all goods needed to make Wind Farms, Solar Farms, Nuclear facilities, Wave Energy Farms and all the others. Even if you rode a bike to work today, Big Oil got you there!!!
Does it really matter after 2012?? There may be a huge decrease in demand in December of that year. Maybe God does have a plan after all. Maybe the Mayans were on to something.
Just a thought.
We need to get rid of fossile fuels, or stop using them at the rate we are. Finding alternative energy is the key though for long time survival. With Nuclear energy there are to many risk, ie. containment, storage, and depletion. With renewable energy you don't have risk, but you run into cost.
I will say I agree with Nuclear for the short term if we can come up with a plan to remove nuclear waste from the planet safely.
Since the sun will be shining on Earth for billions of years, it makes sense to use solar power. Finding a way to store the energy more efficiently, along with designing more efficient solar panels are just short-term issues that will probably be solved by 2030, probably a lot sooner.
I like solar, but I've been waiting for significant efficiency improvements for 30 years.
Here's my idea:
Nuclear fission plants, build plenty of Gen III/IV/V as they roll out, we can supply or energy needs for centuries, maybe millennia this way. Which will lead the way to...
With deuterium-deuterium reactors, we actually have enough deuterium in the oceans to meet our current energy needs for several billion years AFTER the sun stops producing energy. That should have us set, but to pacify EPA and what not, we'll build a solar plant. somewhere.
@EVERYONE WHO COOMMENTED ON THIS THREAD
If anyone read sethdayal's long breakdown of the energy types they would give up their idiotic notions of solar power etc.
for those who think nuclear will dirty the environment ill repeat what he said:
"spews a softball sized bit of waste that can be burned in a Gen IV reactor."
theres a reason there hasnt been a response to your comment yet....please, I dont want to offend you (even though softly put I think you are an ignorant idiot) but post that kind of thing of religious website, not on one for educated, solid thinking (for the most part) people...
Even if Big Oil got us where we are today, it is becoming increasingly clear that Big Oil will take us no further, and it will eventually (if it hasn't already) reach a point of diminishing returns if we continue to depend on it. We shouldn't continue to perpetuate the status quo just based on how many jobs it will provide - if we really are a nation of entrepreneurs, then what we should do is, when we move past the era of Big Oil (which we should do sooner rather than later), then we should be able to use that human capital in the new renewable industry, and if that doesn't provide enough jobs for everyone, then new entrepreneurs should use their intellect and innovation to develop new industries, and use the balance of that human capital to provide them jobs and advance those new technologies. It's the same thing with defense contractors - we only perpetuate a massive military-industrial complex so that congressmen can deliver jobs to their districts (watch "Why We Fight" for an explanation of this), but it's not necessary. We could certainly use those dollars, those manufacturing resources, and the human capital towards other means. Move forward, let old industries die, create new ones, and create new jobs!