Scientists who research natural hazards walk a precarious line when it comes to predicting disasters. They're often criticized for over-hyping the situation and disrupting residents' lives. But if they fail to predict a catastrophic event, they're accused of failing to give the public adequate warning. It's a classic case of "damned if you do, damned if you don't."
"Damned if you don't" is the situation that seven of Italy's top seismologists now find themselves in -- the scientists face manslaughter charges for failing to predict the April 2009 earthquake that struck the town of L'Aquila in central Italy.
In late March 2009, tremors were recorded in the surrounding region, resulting in a magnitude-4.0 earthquake on March 30. The following day, the seven seismologists were in L'Aquila attending a meeting of the Major Risks Committee, a group that advises Italy's Civil Protection Agency on natural hazards risks. At a press conference following the quake, committee member Bernardo di Bernardinis told reporters, "the scientific community tells us there is no danger, because there is an ongoing discharge of energy. The situation looks favorable." But on April 6, a magnitude-6.3 quake struck, killing more than 300 people and leaving about 65,000 homeless.Local citizens claimed they had been planning to leave their homes after the smaller quake, but had changed their minds after the committee's comments. In August 2009, the citizens filed a formal request for investigation, and earlier this month the chief prosecutor stated that his office had enough information to indict the individuals named in the case.
Nearly 4,000 researchers around the world have come to the seismologists' defense, signing a letter to Italy's president, Giorgio Napolitano, urging him to compel decision makers to focus on hazards mitigation and earthquake preparedness rather than holding scientists responsible for doing something that is not yet possible. Despite extensive research efforts by seismologists in recent decades, earthquakes cannot yet be accurately predicted to occur on a specific day, or even in a specific month.
Five amazing, clean technologies that will set us free, in this month's energy-focused issue. Also: how to build a better bomb detector, the robotic toys that are raising your children, a human catapult, the world's smallest arcade, and much more.


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Scientists are responsible for earthquakes now? That's like saying the weatherman is responsible for the hail damage to my car.
As an addition, a scientist actually predicted the earthquake but got highly criticized and accused of creating panic!
http://news.sciencemag.org/scienceinsider/2009/04/more-on-quake-r.html
I agree with the first and second commenters.
"Local citizens claimed they had been planning to leave their homes after the smaller quake,"
The larger quake was 6 days later. Thos peoplewere really going to take off for a 'vacation' for atleast six days with virtually no notice? What if the second quake was two weeks later? How long would they have stayed away 'waiting' for a big earthquake to hit???
And how will they punish these evil doers? Burn them at the stake or stretch them apart on the rack?
This only proves what we all know, politicians are nuts.
It's crazy that people always look for some human to blame when a natural disaster strikes. Clearly someone forgot to perform the proper sacrifices to Poseidon! (or is it Neptune since they are Italian)
It's official. The world really has been taken over by lunatic progressives. The world must at all times be seen as under control, a natural disaster happens, someone gets fired everyone is safe, the government has it under control. It's always someone's fault. Some might look to God to help or protect them, but that is ideologically anathema to progressives where the state is the all powerful being over both man and nature.
Progressives mantra for 2 centuries get rid of God, king and property. You can see all around you the war still rages against these things. God to the state. King to them/state. Property where they are the controllers of everything you have, everything you will have all in the public "good". No dissent again if you control all media and property.
Power absolute in the hands of progressive madmen formed by the many wars created by and against progressives over the centuries. An interference in the natural hardy/wienburg equilibrium between the strong, smart, brave and the weak, conniving, political, but still smart, emotionally/logically stunted but smart.
French revolution (rise of progressivism/ socialism), reign of terror against catholicism, the crown and the wars that followed. 4 million dead.
WW1 progressives on both sides. 40 million dead.
Communist idealogies, in soviet union and china alone about 120 million dead not even in wars.
WW2 progressives on both sides 70 million dead.
Vietnam 5 million, korea 3.5 million. naziism, fascism, communism, socialism all varying names for one social idealogy. When will they finally stop? When is enough enough?
as stalin said the death of one man is a tragedy, the death of millions a statistic. It's just a fundamental part of their idealogy, it's just the way the progressive leadership/ trendsetters think. And it will kill us all if we allow it.
Sorry about the rant. It's just the way I see the world being orchestrated toward another well choreographed disaster of the unnatural kind to clean out the "detritus" humanity (another progressives quote I forget who).
It sounds to me to be somewhat related to the Italian push to declare Google executives as guilty over a youtube video.
www.thedomains.com/2010/02/24/italy-finds-3-google-execs-guilty-criminally-for-online-video-posted-on-google-video/
It looks dangerous to be in Italy if you are 'in charge'.
All this will do is lose them the Scientists they need to track these things.
No matter what happens they will all quit and use their talents elsewhere.
So why haven't they evacuated southern Italy after the scientist stated the underwater volcano wall could collapse at any moment and a tidal wave will destroy southern Italy?
I don't see them packing up for that warning.
Idiots!!!
The post is misinformed. The Italian "Great Risks Commission" is charged for having EXCLUDED any risks, NOT for not having predicted tue earthquake. In fact they did a prediction: "there will be no riks for the population, everything will be fine", and it was the wrong one.
Italy is on a roll with their bs court cases...
Lock them up with Amanda Knox! Damn these mad scientists and their science. LOL
According to my knowledge of language, "The situation looks favorable" does not mean the same thing as "There will be no risks for the population - everything will be fine." Maybe it's different in Italian?
It's always better to include the entire quote: "the scientific community tells us there is no danger, because there is an ongoing discharge of energy. The situation looks favorable." Their conclusion/prediction was that there won't be any danger.
It's also always better to shut up in this kind of situation since we still do not know all the factors leading up to an earthquake.
If these scientists are to be prosecuted for the wrong predictions, then they should be rewarded for the right predictions. I would suggest burning them when wrong, but making them kings when they are right. Fair is fair.
So the lesson here is that if there is even the slightest chance of an earth quake scientists need to scream "RUN, RUN FOR YOUR LIVES!" or face lengthy prison sentences.