After suggesting in a tweet on Sunday that Dorian posed a serious threat to Alabama, a statement at odds with National Hurricane Center (NHC) predictions at the time, the president has since doubled (and tripled) down on his claim with a trio of charts. One highlighted an array of old, raw data. Another featured a bespoke hurricane cone apparently hand-drawn in sharpie. And the third showed a low possibility of elevated wind speeds. While Trump’s assertions about Dorian’s Alabama-bound trajectory weren’t impossible (little is completely off the table when it comes to beasts as intricate as hurricanes), they appear to reveal a flawed understanding of NHC data products, whose subtle blend of historical records, physical forecasts, and human intuition represent the best the field has to offer.