Pendlebury's picks include physics, chemistry, physiology/medicine, and economics — the Nobels for science, whose impact can be measured. Peace and literature are somewhat more subjective. Pendlebury begins with academic citations, he explained in an interview. Thomson Reuters is the only group to predict Nobel winners based on data, not just a bookie's odds, and has been quite accurate so far, correctly picking 26 recipients in the past decade. Last year, every single winner was previously predicted, either in 2008 or 2010.