The Main Man courtesy of the Singularity Institute

Welcome to the main event.

At the end of a day filled with many interesting, thought provoking talks (and a few that gave me some much needed sleep), the audience at the Singularity Summit 2009 sat content but exhausted. After all, contemplating the future of humanity really takes it out of you.

Then came Kurzweil. He's the man everyone came to see, and they greeted him appropriately. After the standing ovation died down, the auditorium reached its quietest point yet, as the collected skeptics, crazies and disciples waited to hear from the first prophet of Singularity.

Kurzweil's demeanor did nothing to betray his position in that auditorium. This was his yearly Sinatra at Caesar's, state of the Singularity moment, but rather than fill up the room with his presence, he mumbled, looked at his shoes, and carried on in a polite, if tired, manner.

Before he started in on his talk, he produced a sheet from a yellow legal pad that he had periodically scribbled on all day. It was his own reflections on the summit's previous talks. Kurzweil then proceeded to comment on them all, admitting some theories into the canon of Singularity, and relegating others to the apocrypha.

I don't think Kurzweil thought he was personally ruling on the validity of theories, but that's how many in the audience took it. After all, his final talk wasn't about introducing new theories or dissecting his previous mistakes. It was about shoring up the faithful, calming any doubts they had about the sheer ambition of his claims, and presenting even stronger evidence that the Singularity is inevitable and impending.

The blatant clarity and simplicity of his argument and evidence left no doubts about Kurzweil's profound intellect. He could have simply shown one slide, pointed to it, and walked away with everyone in the audience convinced the Singularity was on its way.

The slide showed computing power, starting with the first punch card machine designed for the 1890 US Census, and ending with today's most powerful chip. Since 1890, computing power has become a trillion times more powerful, and a billion times more powerful in the last 25 years. The computer I used at the beginning of college had 10 times less power and half the storage space of the one I used as a senior. With the human brain able to hold only about 2 petabytes of information,a single computer will equal the storage capacity and speed of the human brain by around 2029.

And once a computer can map out every single neuron, connection, and firing of a brain, someone will make a digital version. Looking at Kurzweil's graph, all the data lined up so elegantly, I became convinced that a computer will simulate a human brain in my lifetime.

However, once that happens, all bets are off. For all Kurzweil did to convince me that a digital brain will arrive sooner rather than later, he didn't convince me that a digital brain will spontaneously assume human-like consciousness and self-awareness. In fact, he didn't convince me that anyone had even the slightest clue as to what will really happen once we cross that threshold.

I was reminded of the Human Genome Project, which assumed that once every gene got mapped out, it would be easy to put a person together from scratch. As we've since learned about the impact of gene/protein interaction in development, the many previously unimagined roles played RNA, and the various chemical feedback loops that regulate every living cell, the simple theory of DNA codes, RNA prints, protein acts seems increasingly simplistic and naive.

I left with the feeling that neuroscience will soon start revealing similar complexities in the brain. And as the process of conscious proves more and more intricate, the computing power needed to reproduce it will rise and rise, pushing back the date of the Singularity.

Kurzweil's presentation left me with no doubt that he was on to something. But he, and everyone else who spoke at the conference, also left me with a strong belief that no knows what that something is, or when it will really be here.

All I know is that when it does get here, I hope it doesn't run on Windows.

Tomorrow, I'll wrap up with my final thoughts on the conference, and let some of the conference attendees tell you what they think about the Singularity.

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13 Comments

"All I know is that when it does get here, I hope it doesn't run on Windows. "

haha nice

The grammatical errors in almost every article on this website are becoming harder and harder to bear. Is it so hard to proofread work that is about to be accessible to almost anyone?

Some examples:
1. "Before started in on his talk, he produced..."
2. "...neuroscience will soon start reveling similar complexities..."
3. "...let some of the conference attendees tell you what they think the Singularity."

An AI program running in Windows would be nice actually.

You could chat w/ it, make jokes to each other, watch movies together, and become best friends. :-)

When you need to buy a new laptop then you should let the AI choose it, to be fair. Because it maybe just another laptop to you, but to the AI, that is the home! :-)

@ tylereatsairplane: fixed! and thanks for the help.

>> An AI program running in Windows would be nice actually. <<

Hmm, do you remember the annoying paperclip?

You're so right Stuart. The truth is the human brain is a half-billion year old kludge, having been constantly built-on, rejigged and stretched by the co-evolutionary demands of its operating system.

The hardware of the human brain is quite frankly inferior, and its technology would not have passed muster when computers had to be built from scratch by pioneering engineers, even if we'd known what it was starting out.

The fact that we will only by 2030 be in a position to claim parity with this kludge from a hardware perspective is quite a staggering thought considering that in all other engineering disciplines man has long surpassed its creator.

Then, when we've patted ourselves on the back for this "singular" achievement, hopefully we'll have then begun to realise and humbled ourselves to the sheer awesomeness of what still needs to be achieved.

The thing about the Singularity is this - it's wholly focused on the hardware side. All the information about hardware being equal to what the human brain can store, or hold the number of interconnections ignores the way the brain is wired.

Just as you can't pour 10,000 bags of Spaghetti onto the ground and have an Eiffel Tower suddenly emerge, you are not going to get anything like human intelligence from simply having a vast amount of computing power and memory sitting there. And since the difficulty of making a working program increases with complexity, it's going to be a long time building toward that goal - if anyone indeed wants to put that much effort forth.

I think rather more interesting is the possibility of wiring the human brain into electronics directly to combine the strengths of both platforms, rather than simply trying to recreate something we already have working today in analog form.

as one approaches singularity, tidal forces in the event horizon must, and will utterly dis-integrate the traveler (social humanity/civilization/institutions) shortly after crossing the horizon.

This happened in a prior singularity involving the printing press (1455 - 1814) which caused among other things hyperinflation in spiritual currency (indulgences), vast increases in IQ and memory via fixity, cheap replication and deflation (death of guilds, scribes) through print. Thus arose capitalism and a new entirely new species/creature, the corporation and the demise of theocratic western govt resulting in an "asteroid belts'" worth of debris of sects, and the very idea of nations without kings.

In particular, when seen as a competing organism, corporations are doing their best to engineer the human out of the loop as the most expensive balance sheet item (labor). However, in a next stage, corporations themselves may be assigned to the slag heap. Point being, none of the actors in this play will go quietly into that good night.

Now as then, the prevailing paradigm *can never reach* the singularity intact. As Kurzweil correctly states, we have been approaching the event horizon for many decades and are already in it (note the explosion in printing of money as an effect), but can't see it *because* we are in it.

I believe it is correct to anticipate continued provolutive improvement in circuit densities and network efficiencies. It is perhaps less correct to think that society will inevitably survive the event horizon experience all the to the singularity point. Thus, at some point, progress may take a huge detour as the very meaning of money comes into question as in: "there is no spoon".

I realize that my comments may have sounded harsh, although I did not intend them to be harsh or derogatory towards the PopSci writers. I very much enjoy the articles, but have noticed some errors and typos. I just think that impeccable grammar lends to the writer's credibility, that's all :)

When you need to buy a new laptop then you should let the AI choose it, to be fair. Because it maybe just another laptop to you, but to the AI, that is the home! :-)

www.cirurgia-plastica.com

"The truth is the human brain is a half-billion year old kludge, having been constantly built-on, rejigged and stretched by the co-evolutionary demands of its operating system.

The hardware of the human brain is quite frankly inferior, and its technology would not have passed muster when computers had to be built from scratch by pioneering engineers, even if we'd known what it was starting out."

That may be true, but it's an ORGANIC COMPUTER. Come on, we haven't even gotten that far in making organic technologies as advanced as that - we've pretty much only gotten cloning.

And despite the fact that just about every scientist and skeptist worth their salt will tell you, the brain is able to work in alternate dimensions. Most of the time, we wouldn't even know it. Who says that things like dreaming can't take place in an alternate reality?

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