The program generates hypotheses from available intel to finger IED weapons caches within a half a mile of actual locations
Posted 12.11.2009 at 3:00 pm
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Cutting Down IED Attacks IED attacks such as these can provide basic intel for SCARE to predict weapons cache locations
U.S. Army
Improvised explosives used by insurgents represent the top killer for warfighters in Iraq and Afghanistan, but now soldiers have a new tool for hunting down IED weapons caches. A new software package, called SCARE, can whip up a best hypothesis for possible locations, based on locations of past improvised explosive device (IED) attacks and, somewhat surprisingly, the Shiite vs. Sunni makeup of neighborhoods.
During a test run, SCARE managed to make predictions that typically ended up within half a mile of actual weapons caches discovered by coalition forces. A prediction or "explanation" of caches usually consisted of 14 cache locations, over half of which were less than 500 meters from an actual site, or less than a third of a mile.
That success rate might not even give enough credit to the software algorithms, according to Paulo Shakarian, a U.S. Army Captain enrolled in the Army's Advanced Civil Schooling program and a computer science Ph.D. student at the University of Maryland.
"Keep in mind, we can only compare with known caches that were found -- it is possible that SCARE could have actually predicted cache sites that were not found," Shakarian told PopSci in an e-mail.
SCARE Sample Predictions: A demonstration of how SCARE might display its predictions or likeliest "explanations," whether for the locations of IED weapons caches or church burglars. SCARE/University of Maryland
SCARE needs three pieces of information to make its predictions. First, it looks at IED attack sites -- a trial run examined a historical series of attacks in Baghdad that took place during a 21-month period sometime between 2006 and 2008.
Second, it puts a range constraint on the distance from an attack site to a weapons cache. Insurgents don't want to attack too close to their cache, but moving explosives over greater distances increases the risk of discovery by coalition forces, said V.S. Subrahmanian, a computer scientist at the University of Maryland.
Third, SCARE can factor in cultural constraints that would limit where insurgents could have stored their explosives. Most attacks during the 21-month period came from Shiite groups with suspected ties to Iran, and so the researchers configured SCARE to rule out largely Sunni neighborhoods as possible weapons cache locations (the program can also run vice versa).
"A Shiite has to be able to hide his ethnic identity in a Sunni neighborhood in order to carry out these attacks, and he's not going to be able to do that for very long," Subrahmanian explained to PopSci. "If he doesn't, he's not going to be able to survive for very long."
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Technology, Jeremy Hsu, abductive reasoning, computer programs, hypotheses, ied, ied attacks, ied caches, improvised explosive devices, SCARE, simulations, weapons cachesThe U.S. military has tested a number of technologies for helping soldiers identify planted explosives, including an adorable unmanned helicopter and training simulations that even allow soldiers to feel the sting of getting shot. But SCARE could seriously boost the success of raids on weapons caches, and help nip the IED threat in the bud.
SCARE can currently run on a laptop and produce results in about 200 milliseconds. Its logic-driven approach is similar to how scientists create hypotheses for explaining seemingly unconnected observations, and could prove incredibly helpful for soldiers who usually rely upon human intelligence based on tips.
"The good news for soldiers is that both approaches can be used together," Shakarian said. He would know -- his current educational pursuit comes after having spent two years deployed in Iraq.
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This is fascinating. It mirrors to some extent software used to track down crime here in the states where we follow a rash of burglaries and then back track into possible locations. The challenge though is the idea that we are targeting neighborhoods.
"Most attacks during the 21-month period came from Shiite groups with suspected ties to Iran" And that's according to whom - the Sunni advisers? What happens next - a computer program gives us a 90% chance that there's a weapons cache but that it could be too dangerous for humans to pursue - so what do we do - launch a predator and then destroy that building?
We need more...this is good but this is the same thought process that led so many attacks during the Viet Nam war where we attacked villages in the name of perceived intelligence based on that one very loose element..."suspected ties to _______".
Do terrorists read Popular Science? If so, i imagine it will take very little time for them to start detonating IED's as bait to draw Coalition troops into finding boobytrapped "caches". Who writes the program that can smell a trap?
Engineers and EOD techs don't go wading into caches casually. Booby traps are a known quantity. You assume they are there.
Experience writes the program that can smell a trap. Unfortunately for Service Members, that experience comes at a high cost.
We ought never to have been in Iraq. That would have freed us up to finish the job in Afghanistan years ago when there was still some expectation of achieving the mission of rooting out bin Laden. But, someone contracted the coup-de-grace to local warlords and his handlers led him by the nose into Iraq.
Great technology! Although I do wonder if it is wise to give details of what the program analyzes.
As for Iraq, no one seems to consider the fact that going full force into Afghanistan with Saddam Hussein in power and not on the run would have been suicide. Do you think he would have just sat by and done nothing?
Saddam could not and would not have done a thing.
You were convinced by the rhetoric that he was a bogeyman.
Just like you were told.
We went into Afghanistan before we went into Iraq. After two years, what had Saddam done?
Nothing. Absolutely nothing.
this program isn't that great at all, it using statistics from events that already happened, it doesn't take a program to realized that, just another fricking contractor profiteering.
@SAM_38 shit like iraq happens because of people like you, they believe avery thing they are told. read history and educate your self about our involvement with iraq as far back as the Iran Contra war.
at no time were we in any danger from iraq, that moron bush and his family was and is owned by the saudis and the bin ladden family, so he wouldn't go after his master's kid.
Gargamel wants the software to finally find those pesky smurfs!
Unleash a swarm of drones and nano-bots that can smell/sense explosives.