If storms as strong as the biggest recorded in the last few two centuries, our electronics-dependent world of today could be in trouble

Plasma of the Sun I'm looking at you, Earth Hinode JAXA/NASA

No electricity, no running water, and no phone service for millions of people. That scenario could easily become reality if a solar storm as intense as those found throughout the history of our planet were to strike Earth today. NPR reported on FEMA's recent simulation of such a storm, and the grim conditions it uncovered.

Solar storms take place when the sun's surface erupts and spews radiation or electrically charged particles toward Earth. The more frequent minor storms may cause some radio interference and create the Northern Lights spectacle known as the aurora borealis. But every few decades can see a huge solar storm that releases the energy of 1 billion hydrogen bombs.

Events of that magnitude took place in both 1921 and 1859, before the world had become reliant upon satellites and electronic devices in everyday life. A recent exercise held in Boulder, Colorado simulated a worst-case scenario based on that storm, and involved both space weather experts and officials from the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA).

In the simulation, the solar storm first disabled most commercial satellites that transmit everything from phone conversations to TV, not to mention credit card transactions at the gas station pump. The next day, the storm created electric currents in power lines that destroyed most transformers around the world, and cut out electricity for much of the northern latitudes.

Individuals or families should simply prepare for the event like any other natural disaster by having emergency supplies always ready, experts say. But the disruption would reach a grand scale that people have only glimpsed before during major blackouts.

There's no good defense against such an event. All that scientists can do is hope to build a better warning system by monitoring the sun's activity with new solar observatories.

[via NPR]

22 Comments

With more and more cars moving towards electrical components, imagine the devastation from powerful enough EMPs that would occur on major highways throughout the world.

It might be bad for cars, but when the computer shuts down, most cars just stall and that is easy enough...more problematic for airplanes I would imagine.

Interesting (scary) article, but I wonder why a solar flare would have any impact on running water. Maybe I am low tech, but my plumbing has no circuitry. And at the water company, wouldn't frying the system only mean that they couldn't remotely control the mains and they would be left in the on position.

@NikitaJ Most running water would be impacted because electric pumps are used to move the water. You might be lucky enough to live in a place served by a large storage tank, but with no pumps to add water to the tank you would soon run out of water. Water doesn't flow without pressure and pressure is provided by pumps. In fact most large multi-story buildings require pump jacks to get water up from the first floor to the upper floors. Without electric power to move the water we're screwed.

I'm just wondering: would the damage be permanent? Would all the affected systems have to be replaced or would it just be a matter of time to repair them. Also what about the ISS? with no atmospheric pratection and everything relying on electricity would the astronauts be toast or could they shut everything of and then turn it back on after it's over?

I expect the first line of defence would be disconnecting *ALL* powers circuits and sources.

Unless satellites have a mechanical disconnect/timer/reconnect device, we'll have more space junk than we ever imagined. Once the dead satellites start colliding and creating shrapnel clouds, that debris will cascade exponentially, eventually assuring a high speed shell-of-death surrounds the planet for thousands of years to come.

We could encase all of our electronics in lead cases.

@.45

haha

@ .45

It would be cheaper to just build Faraday cage around all our important electronics...of course you really need to know what wavelengths you are shielding against for one to be effective.

Besides, my laptop is already heavy enough...I don't need a lead case for it. If a big CME hits the planet and wipes out all our power and electronics, I'm going on vacation :)

If this happens I'm going to the island in Lost, lol.

IF that happens, I'm walking to the meat market near by, offering him 400$ for all the meat he has, chopping down a tree for firewood, and having one long, bad-ass, block-sized, old fashioned BBQ. I'm also raiding the local grocery store for all the water they have.

powq33, I don't think smaller things like cars are affected by this because the magnetic fluctuations are low frequency, and aren't really an EMP, certainly not like the type produced by upper-atmosphere nuclear detonations, which are designed to do that kind of damage.

Remember too, not only does water need pumping, so does oil, gasoline, natural gas (heating etc.). So emergency generators only last a little while. Remember where your food comes from: no electricity, no more food supply. No radio, TV, Cell phones or other phones, just whatever runs on batteries, which isn't anything important.

The reality is that we would be almost instantly plunged into the middle ages - without the advantages of even horses or outhouses. People would figure all this out within minutes or hours of the initial catastrophe(s), and you can forget cooperation from that point forward. It would will be everyman, woman and child for him/herself. Hardly anyone knows how to grow food anymore, and where would they grow it? No one knows how to hunt. What would they hunt, cows? What if you don't even have a rifle or shotgun, or much ammo? Just whip up a bow and arrow? Easier to look for other people with food and kill them for it, my friend.

As for prevention, even that isn't necessarily completely possible, I don't think. The problem is large DC currents being induced in power transmission lines by fluctuations in the geo-magnetic field that cover large geographical areas. These currents then saturate the transformers found at the end of ALL long-distance transmission lines and cause them to overload and melt down, more or less explosively, meaning they are beyond repair. S oin other words, the entire grid fails form both primary and secondary (cascading) failures of sub-grids.

Those transformers cannot all be replaced in juust a few weeks, or even months; we are talking hundreds of thousands or millions of them being needed - immediately.

The only solution, if it would work well enough, is shutting down the grid, WITH NO WARNING WHATSOEVER, because we only get a short warning of such a major coronal mass ejection from the lone satellite that is actually watching for them (it is about to die of old age anyway and last I heard, no replacement was planned). Thousands and thousands would die in the first hour of that, better than the tens or hundreds of millions that die if the grid is destroyed.

But I don't really think the grid CAN be shut down, warning or not. Anyone else know?

The grid could be shut down, but to do so in an instant or short period of time would be near impossible.

"Katrina-Scale Devastation"

You mean future solar storms will have the ability to corrupt the New Orleans government into misappropriating funds that should be put towards levee maintinance leading to the submergance an entire section of the city whose residence chose to live under sea level most without insurance?

That is one hell of a solar storm!

Just think of the beautiful northern light show.

With that much EMF, some of Tesla's radiant collectors would actually work. The electrical power would be free and all you would have to do is put up an antenna array (along with a good shielded / grounded mechanical inverter). The electrical energy would be "to cheap to meter."

This would not do anything to hurt small electronics, cars and other such small objects.

This corresponds to the slow E3 pulse of a nuclear EMP attack; it induces currents in very long conductors and that means things like gas pipelines, phonelines, power lines, water pipes and _anything connected to them_. Of particular note are the large grid transformers which can have lead times of years at the best of times.

What this means is that if you have sufficient advance knowledge you can shut down the entire electric grid for the duration of the event and disconnect everything you want to protect. But in order to do this people have to have at least a few days of food and water without access to the stove(preferably some extra to help out short-sighted neighbours), some candles, maybe a firearm to protect themselves against the inevitable rise in looting if they're in a high-risk area, a radio and some batteries to get information.

"It would be cheaper to just build Faraday cage around all our important electronics...of course you really need to know what wavelengths you are shielding against for one to be effective."

A faraday cage wouldn't help at all. The problem is large currents induced in conductors of any kind that are several kilometers long or longer. Anything attached to such a conductor is at risk.

It is not at all like the E1 pulse of a nuclear EMP.

When looking at the bigger picture, solar flares effect more than just electronic devices. I wonder what else that has recently happened is a result of such adverse changes...i wonder, i wonder.

The thing about these kind of storms are that a lot of people do not know about this. That is what it makes it devastating. It is like a earthquake, we won't know when it is going to hit and when we do find out, it's too late. I think the whole world should know about this. The more people know, the better ideas we could come up with to prevent it. They say it is not preventable, but it can be with the technology today.

New solar observatories will give an great opportunity to examine solar storms properly to predict some consequences for the Earth and population.
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This scenario makes survivalist training seem appropriate. I can't imagine all transportation being crippled and not being able to buy water because the banking system was down. What about home and personal security? Are the cops going to ride around on bicycles?

IF that happens, I'm walking to the meat market near by, offering him 400$ for all the meat he has, chopping down a tree for firewood, and having one long, bad-ass, block-sized, old fashioned BBQ. I'm also raiding the local grocery store for all the water they have.
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