Flying Car [cont.]
John B. Carnett
"It's more of a financial issue,” said Calkins, “it takes a lot of capital to get a personal air vehicle to market, and the mood is that people want a faster return on their investment than a personal aircraft can offer.”
When Can I Get One: Calkins thinks that public lack of interest is abating. In crowded mega-cities like Mumbai and Mexico City, people have begun refusing to put up with traffic anymore. In fact, in Sao Paulo, Brazil, the traffic has gotten so bad, a number of helicopter taxi companies have sprung up, allowing the wealthier citizens to dodge the gridlock.
Prediction: According to Calkins, within 25 years flying cars will be common in traffic-clogged metropolises like Los Angeles and Beijing, but it will be 50 years until you can hail a flying taxi to get across town in a less congested city like Chicago or New York.
[At right: In Terrafugia’s Transition driving airplane, the canard wing doubles as the front bumper.]
I earned a degree in Computer Science in 1968, motivated in large part by an interest in artificial intelligence. I have been a close observer of the field ever since and can not let these comments in PopSci.com go unchallenged. To say that our failure to create human-level AI is due to inadequate funding by DARPA indicates a total lack of understanding of the problem. Rather, what the last fifty years of effort has demonstrated is that the goal will not be achieved by writing code and continually pining for another X-fold increase in computer power. We have followed that path for decades and achieved little if anything. Yes, a desktop computer can beat the human World Chess Champion, but that computer understands chess no better than a handheld calculator understands mathematics. It possesses no "consciousness" or ability to generalize to any other problem. Attempting to program our way to an AI was a reasonable thing to try and many valiant efforts were made. However, we must now recognize that that path will not succeed. Our best hope is to learn how the human brain and cortex process inputs and apply those lessons to the problem. Fortunately, a growing number of researchers are moving in that direction, and after these many years I am still optimistic that the goal will be achieved.