Posted 08.14.2009 at 4:12 pm
4 Comments
Cricket Match: Prescott Pym/Flickr
The English have been facing down the Australians for more than 100 years in the famous (to those who follow cricket, at least) Ashes series (which incidentally is being played this month). And apparently the weather influences who wins when it’s on Australian soil, according to a meteorology researcher who decided to crunch the numbers this summer. He found that the probability of the English winning in a La Nina year is more than 50 percent, but in an El Nino year is less than 25 percent.
Why? The ball gets bounced on the ground to a batter. Australian pitchers (“bowlers” in cricket-speak) have perfected their technique for drier Australian land that rewards fast bowling, but the English bowl slower and with a better swerve, which works well in soggy England. La Nina makes the Australian fields wetter like England, giving the English a boost. But in El Nino years, the Australian turf is drier, which favors the faster Australian pitchers.
The paper left its analysis there, but since climate change is likely to bring more El Nino to Australia, the prospects for the English team aren’t looking so hot.
[via Guardian]
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What's an Ozzie? Don't you mean Aussie?
that's all well and good, but here's the slight problem with your hypothesis, The Ashes are not being played in Australia, they are being played in England. The next series, played in 30 months hence(because its a summer game, the every two years time frame is adjusted for the trans hemisphere shift that takes place as the series moves) will be in Australia, or Oz if you like. The Aussies will probable stand a good chance of winning there as well because there is a great deal of emphasis within the Australian culture upon winning this series while England tends to be more focused on football (soccer).
This seems more like a subject for sports illustrated than popsci
Statistics, a little something for everyone :) Of the last 10 completed series, stretching back 20 years, Australia have won 9. 4/9 came on English soil. Of all the many variables, I think La Nina & El Nino patterns are meaningless.