On March 19th, the moon will be closer--and thus bigger--than it's been in two decades

Apogee/Perigee Anthony Ayiomamitis

On March 19th, the moon will be closer to Earth than it's been since 1992. The full moon that night will appear about 14 percent larger and significantly brighter than usual, but despite the brightness, the supermoon has a dark side. Supermoons have been linked to massive natural disasters in the past, from earthquakes to floods--but that connection is typically touted by astrologists. Astronomers and scientists, with typical drollness, say a catastrophe is unlikely.

March 19th marks this year's lunar perigee, the point in the moon's orbit at which it is closest to Earth. It's the moon's elliptical orbit that's responsible for the differences in distance between the moon and Earth (the opposite, the point at which the moon is farthest from the Earth, is called the lunar apogee). This month's perigee will leave the moon, says Steve Owens at Dark Sky Diary, about 8 percent closer to Earth than usual, and about 2 percent closer to Earth than the average lunar perigee. In fact, it'll be the closest positioning since 1992.

Past supermoons have coincided with natural disasters--the Indonesian earthquake in 2005, Australian flooding in 1954--but scientists note that those are unrelated, more likely than not. Says John Bellini, a geophysicist at the U.S. Geological Survey: "A lot of studies have been done on this kind of thing by USGS scientists and others. They haven't found anything significant at all." The tides will pull a bit higher, but earthquakes are almost completely unaffected and volcanoes are not likely to show unusual behavior. John Vidale, a seismologist at the University of Washington in Seattle, said "Practically speaking, you'll never see any effect of lunar perigee. It's somewhere between 'It has no effect' and 'It's so small you don't see any effect.'"

Besides, it's still 2011. Everyone knows there won't be any world-ending catastrophes until next year, right?

[Life's Little Mysteries, Dark Sky Diary]

50 Comments

Gasoline is too expensive to just pour on the fire, Dan.

We're doomed, I tell ya! Oh, I meant "mooned".

Thanks for posting this! That will be a nice night, I hope the sky is clear.

This is sensationalism pretending to be responsible writing. You say that "supermoons have a dark side" and that "supermoons have been linked to massive natural disasters" but then write that there is no evidence that this is true. Sloppy? Confused? Intentionally misleading?

The BIG ONE will hit Los Angeles at Perigree on or near March 19th! Take my word for it!

" Astronomers and scientists, with typical drollness, say a catastrophe is unlikely."

WOW

8.9 Earth quake just hit the coast of Japan with the largest Tsunami warning.

My Prayers to the Japanese people.

What a shame that "Popular Science" hasn't bothered to check out the facts. Science - even in its popular form - should still be factual rather than merely sensational.

Astrologers (not astrologists) have very little to say about the Moon at perigee. Astrologically, it's simply Moon opposite Sun, just like any Full Moon. I suppose some astrologers may incorporate "Black Moon Lilith", which is just a fancy name for one of the focal points of the Earth/Moon elliptical orbit, from which apogee or perigee could be calculated, but it's hardly a mainstay of astrology.

And yet here we are, yet again. 2005 last supermoon: Indonesia. 2011: we're looking at Japan. Perhaps scientists haven't exhausted all connections with these kind of moon phases and the earth. Maybe some sort of tidal displacement or the other. I don't know and I don't think the scientists should say they do

oh i get it now... the aztecs knew the moon would crash into the earth. the moon slowly progressing its way to earth has been causing the natural disasters...lol
just jokeing... people just deny that the calander would just reset or if the aztecs were still around would build onto it.

If the world was going to end on 2012 i would kick a grizzly bear in the face, just for the hell of it.

Natural disaster struck Japan!
Did the moon cause it or was it H.A.A.R.P.?

WIKIPEDIA High_Frequency_Active_Auroral_Research_Program

Sorry, but one natural distaster does not auto-magically make it 100% positive proof that the moon is the cause.

Maybe if more and more natural distasters happen up to Mar 19th (and a little afterwards)...then perhaps a correlation could be made.

Today is March 11. the Perigree is on the 19th.

Shut your stupid mouths.

Keep your eyes peeled to the news.

at thor - the exact date doesnt matter as the tidal forces are still present and stronger than usual

tectonic as well as tidal

Well, it seems the full moon hasn't even come and it's already caused a 8.9 earthquake in Japan! No proof whatsoever that the two are linked of course, but it is a little unsettling.

Hey Moquah-Hunter, just FYI... the hole "end of the world in 2012" theory is based on the Mayan calendar... not Aztecs... =)

Everyone knows the moon has nothing to do with conditions on earth! The tides come in, the tides go out, NEVER A MISCOMMUNICATION - YOU CAN'T EXPLAIN THAT!

The largest quakes do occur near the full moon (or to a lesser degree the new moon)

The source data:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Largest_earthquakes#Largest_earthquakes_by_magnitude
http://www.timeanddate.com/calendar/moonphases.html

My results show of the largest 24 quakes, all but 6 occurred near a full or new moon:
http://www.flickr.com/photos/83092173@N00/5518198459/

Oddly, this current Japanese quake is an outlier!

Do any of these 'scientists' use data?

I don't think the people in Japan will believe the author of this article!

Moon AND solar flares have cause the quake

It is disgusting and shameful for Popular Science to exhibit such disregard for COPYRIGHT on intellectual property.

I am the copyright owner of the above photo depicting apogee and perigee and which PopSci lifted from NASA APOD and, more specifically, from http://apod.nasa.gov/apod/ap071025.html where the photo is accompanied "Credit & Copyright: Anthony Ayiomamitis".

Not only was I not approached for permission of this photo BUT PopSci lifted the photo from the NASA APOD website, did not have the courtesy to credit my work properly and just tagged as a "NASA".

If the editors fail to contact me in relation to licensing this work, there will be follow-up action on my part. E-mails have already been sent to PopSci!

Anthony Ayiomamitis
http://www.perseus.gr

the moon only controls the tides on earth because of the gravity pull. it doesn't control earthquakes or volcanoes. that is plate tectonics.
the moon is in fact, moving AWAY from us about 4 cm every year. even with the eliptical orbit, it does not just get closer out of character, it will be on the same orbit but getting farther.
when the moon looks bigger in the sky, it's just how the atmosphere & what's in the air is magnifying it (in a way). it's an optical illusion. it's not actually closer.

one last point to make, 2012 has already happened. the mayan's didn't have leap year. so...considering it started about 3000bc, it has been skipping 1 day every 4 years for about 5000 years. causing that Dec. 21st to actually come early on our calendar, by 3.5 years. it really 'happened' in the summer of 2009.

First off, the earthquake in japan has absolutely NOTHING to do with the moon being closer in the upcoming full moon. The moon is currently further away from earth than it is during any normal perigee.

Perigee and Apogee also have NOTHING to do with full or new moons and can occur at any point in the lunar cycle.

As for you fiendofdemise, they are not talking apparent size, they are talking in terms of absolute distance. The moon is going to be closer to earth on the upcoming full moon than it has been at any point since 1992. The moon has an elliptical orbit, which does not mean rock solid stable. It does indeed move 4 cm further away from earth every year, but that is in average distance. Apogee and Perigee can change.

Well if its going to be its closest on the 19th then doesnt it have to descend this direcion in the meantime?

P34 BR3W3R

The Moon (with a contribution from the Sun) causes tides on Earth. The Earth's crust is floating on liquid magma. Liquid magma is affected by the same gravitational forces that cause tides in the ocean. The article mentions that the Moon will be 8% closer to the Earth than "usual". What it doesn't mention, is that the gravitational tug of the Moon on the Earth (and vice versa) will be 25% greater, than when the Moon is at apogee.

While we haven't "proved" that the Moon caused the recent earthquake in Japan; it is at least a reasonable hypothesis, until disproven.

OTOH, the article itself is nonsense -- there is no evidence presented in the article to back up the headline.

hey fiendofdemise, pretty sure that the Mayans and their calendar conclusion is suppose to correlate with the aligning of the celestial bodies in our solar system, not a specific date thousands of years in their future. We calculated this alignment to fall on this date in 2012, not the Mayans.

We may as well blame the Large Hadron Collider just because whenever they turn it on there's a major earthquake.

HAARP. HAARP. HAARP. Thats the answer! Mass media is mass censorship! They are lying to us! The mass extinction is coming sure enough, but it will be man made! Another responder mentioned HAARP but it seems it fell upon deaf ears. Try to keep an open mind...HAARP is a versatile new weapon of the NWO that has a multitude of uses, but is capable of emitting a billion watts of radio waves into the ionisphere, actually expanding it temporarily, and where those waves are amplified exponentially before rebounding back to earth where they wreak havoc on earth's fault lines. Its true purpose is just being realized....aggressive foreign policy and population control. Yes its true folks, our planet is morbidly overpopulated! Check out HAARP on youtube...what about all the recent reports of dead fish and birds...in 17 different countries?....check out the recent STATS on big quakes...and the aurora lights that are usually reported just prior to quake time! Check out "HAARP persian gulf". There are hundreds of clues if one is so inclined to start connection the dots. I assure you, mass media won't connect them for you! In fact, media already priming us for the next one! They will blame natural and astrological phenomenon every time, and since the stage is already set for Dec 21st 2012, they will probably use this date to create a larger scale extinction event! Meanwhile the chosen ones will be safely bunkered up underground or in space. FEMA CAMPS? Its also possible I'm a fruitcake but you'd better check it out anyway....

Beware the ides of March!

But anyways...

Japan was not caused by the moon. There is little evidence to support lunar caused earthquakes. If there was to be an earthquake from the moon it would be closer to the 17th when the moon is actually closer.

Speculation is always fun until some ends up paying $5 a gallon for gas. ...ignorance, it's contagious.

Excuse me...19th.

@everyone who wasn't making a joke above:

W...T...F...???

Nothing like an article about the moon to attract the nutjobs...

I am surprised that everyone overlooked the most obvious contradiction involving the (perigee) moon and earthquakes! Please remember that the moon's orbit around earth is elliptical and stable.

As a result, if the PERIGEE moon is able to cause earthquakes, it would be doing so EVERY month during its elliptical orbit about earth when reaching the perigee point.

Furthermore, the moon's distance from earth varies from approximately 356,500 km at perigee to 406,500 km at apogee with the average distance being 380,000 km. To this end, a perigee moon is ONLY about 5% closer than its average distance. This deviation of 5% from its average distance is NOT sufficient to cause earthquakes.

Now, to add insult to injury, the moon was at apogee (and not perigee!) when the quake hit Japan.

Finally, the moon's phase (crescent, first quarter, full etc) is simply a reflection of lighting from the Sun and as viewed by an earth-based observer. As a result, a PERIGEE FULL MOON is simply an instance where the moon is at its closest point in its orbit around earth AND it happens to be behind the earth (imagine Sun -> Earth -> Moon) and, as such, the complete lunar disk is being illuminated (hence for a full moon). We do not have a lunar eclipse being the moon's orbit around earth varies by +/-5 degrees and, as a result, is not collinear or, otherwise, we would be having a total lunar eclipse each and every month.

Anthony Ayiomamitis

PS. Clarification: "We do not have a lunar eclipse since the moon's orbit around earth varies by +/-5 degrees IN ALTITUDE RELATIVE TO ITS ORBITAL PLANE and, as a result, is not always collinear IN THREE-DIMENSIONAL SPACE with the Sun and Earth or, otherwise, we would be having a total lunar eclipse each and every month."

Thanks, Anthony A; both for the awesome photos(if yours) and for your reasonable inference that a 5% deviation in distance, while significant, will probably only affect our tides. I was going to suggest that we could probably figure out the gravity gradient from the Lagrange formula, coupled with known tide data from other known distances...but then I started thinking about all the other causalities for our tides. When I started thinking about storms, average water temperatures, and yes, ocean-based earthquakes in the last year or so, as well as pack ice loss etc..., I realized your 5% was probably much simpler considering that even if we figured in every known cause, we'd still be left with a mean estimate at the end. Still, I don't think it wise to say as an absolute that our moon has no effect on our planet other than tidal. Our core is also a liquid, and so is all the oil under our feet. To say that there is no fluid dynamic worth considering; and that earthquakes Cannot Be Caused by lunar proximity is to LIE. It is possible.

Given the known effects of a regular full moon at a societal level, I'd imagine police all over the nation are saying 'aw, HELL NO!' as they hear about this.

One must, to be accurate consider Earth and the Moon together as two children of very different weights on a see-saw. In fact, Earth is so much larger and more massive that the center of swivel between the two orbiting bodies happens to be 1/4th the way from the surface. No, not a distance into space, but rather down towards the center of the Earth. The actual mean "pivot point" between the Earth-Moon binary system is in fact 1,067 miles under Earth's surface. While the Moon may stir things up in Earth's core as the center of pivot actually moves around at that dept in a ring under Earth over the time of Earth's rotation almost 28 times faster than the Moon's revolution around Earth, what must be pointed out which is the summary of my point is that a closer "moon" does not in any significant way move the center-point ring where Earth's and the Moon's mass are gravitationally centered to where it is when the Moon is further out. So in short, it's like eclipses - the phenomena seems important because we humans perceive something new or different in the Moon, but it's all about nothing scientifically.

@quasi: Please remember that the moon's orbit about earth is stable. As a result, ANY influence by the moon on earth would have to be by definition regular and, in fact, monthly. This is the flaw in people's logic and where they associate full moons (at perigee or otherwise) with earthquakes. If their logic were correct, we should be experiencing such quakes every month. Similarly, if the moon is full or not for earthquakes to happen is utter nonsense since the moon's phase is literally a reflection of solar light which is dependent on the moon's position relative to the earth and sun with a full moon being possible only when the earth is "behind" the earth (ie. collinear situation between Sun->Earth->Moon) and it is getting a full dose of solar light (at quarter phase, it is 90-deg to one side thus yielding first quarter; 90-deg to the other side and we have third-quarter).

@JohnS72: This is a very good approach to the two-body problem involving the earth and the moon and you have in full agreement!

Type ... "when the MOON is "behind" the earth".

I would like to present another similar example where we have a serious flaw in people's logic.

Similar to the eccentric orbit of earth's Moon around the Earth, we have a similar scenario involving Earth while it orbits around the Sun, for earth's orbit is eccentric (elliptical).

Now, one will often hear the comment that we summers because Earth is closer to the Sun and winters when the Earth is further way during its elliptical orbit.

However, the above suggestion is obviously flawed for people living in the southern hemisphere since when we in the northern hemisphere are enjoying summers and are supposedly closer to the Sun, they are experiencing winters and vice versa. Obviously one cannot have it both ways and this is where their suggestion starts to fall apart.

The earth spins an angle relative to its orbit which is inclined by 24.5 degrees. As a result, during summers, the tilted earth is pointed at the sun and the rays of light are hitting the surface directly and which means greater heat. Similarly, during winters, the tilted earth is now pointed away from the Sun and the rays of light are "glancing" off the surface, thus leading to less heat.

Further to my result above depicting apogee and perigee, here is a comparison of the Sun at aphelion and perihelion: http://www.perseus.gr/Astro-Solar-Scenes-Aph-Perihelion.htm ... our elliptical orbit yields a 3% difference in the apparent diameter of the Sun.

To close off my initial comment in this message, for residents of the northern hemisphere, we have summers when earth is FURTHEST away from the Sun, namely aphelion and which is a direct contradiction to the perception that summers are due to our closer proximity to the Sun.

To: Anthony-Ayiomamitis: Sir, I thank you. By the way I learned a lot from your pictures, and I regret your permission was not sought to use them. It is, as I look outside tonight, a beautiful Moon, from a scientific, poetic, and artistic standpoint. As Earth's diameter is 4x larger than Earth's, then this may be one of the last "close encounters" in history in which humans are not, at the perigee, gazing up to a beautiful close Earth. Thank you again. I really appreciate your expertise and your sanity, sir. Please forgive the American phrases as opposed to the more scientifically accurate Metric ones, but if Earth were an 8-foot ball, the ISS barely climbs over 3 inches off its surface. Geosynchronous satellites get about 23 feet away, and the Moon as of tonight in this scale, is a 2-foot wide satellite about 221 feet away - about 4 feet closer than its average.

a typo ... 29 feet closer than average but still not the end of the world ...

John,

The issue involving the use of my work has been amicably resolved with PopSci.

You mention the ISS in relation to earth. Allow me to illustrate the ISS against the solar disk and whose diameter (ie. the Sun's) is 109 times that of the Earth: www-dot-perseus-dot-gr/Astro-Sat-ISS-dot-htm . A typical ISS pass ranges from about 330 km to well over 1000 km overhead and is also dependent on whether we have a Shuttle mission in progress or not. During a Shuttle mission, the ISS is placed in a relatively lower orbit about 40-44 hrs after launch.

I have yet to catch the ISS and one of the shuttles transiting either the Sun and/or Moon simultaneously together but I am on the lookout for such an opportunity. Of course, time is of the essence with the shutting down of the Shuttle program.

Something you may wish to look into is the observation of the ISS during the day. It is quite doable if the Sun is somewhat low.

Two other opportunities during the day involving Mercury and Venus were aborted due to clouds.

I also have had three opportunities to catch the Hubble Space Telescope transit the Sun but again the elements killed all three opportunities.

quote: "Astrologers (not astrologists) have very little to say about the Moon at perigee."

astrologer - someone who predicts the future by the positions of the planets and sun and Moon
astrologist - someone who predicts the future by the positions of the planets and sun and Moon
(www.thefreedictionary.com)

I'm as confused as a baby in a topless bar.

wow, who care what astrologers, astrologists, aztecs, not-very-bright harvard grads (my dentist is one) and all around nuts have to say about anything... seriously.

Just shut-up and enjoy the view.

I agree with bob_spence's posting. I came to the same conclusion before reading his comments.

To dismiss the moon's gravitational effect on Earth is just plain arrogance from people with no imagination.
Although the Japan earthquake did not coincide with a full moon, most of the largest earthquakes throughout history have. Evidence - look at the list of the largest earthquakes by magnitude on en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lists_of_earthquakes. Then for each one go down the list and look at www.fourmilab.ch/earthview/pacalc.html for the earthquake year. You will find the following:-
1964 Alaska earthquake (2nd largest) - day before full moon
2004 Indian Ocean earthquake (3rd largest) - full moon
1952 Kamchatka earthquakes (4th largest) - 3 days after full moon
1833 Sumatra earthquake (6th largest) - 2 days before full moon
2010 Chile earthquake (8th largest) - day before full moon

A full moon occurs when the moon and sun are on opposite sides of the Earth and therefore it does not take a great stretch of the imagination to visualise the Earth being 'pulled apart' and perhaps allowing the tectonic plates to slide.

Ray,

The mass of the sun is 27,000,000 times that of the Moon. I think you can extrapolate from there the extent of the force exerted by the Sun and which represents 99.8% of the total mass of the solar system and the force exerted by the Moon. As a result, I fail to see your "it does not take a great stretch of the imagination to visualise the Earth being 'pulled apart' and perhaps allowing the tectonic plates to slide".

As I mentioned earlier, if a full moon were to be a significant factor for earthquakes, this would be the case for each and every month. The fact that it isn't confirms that it is a non-issue.

Anthony.

In india many astrologers believe that the japan tsunami was due to supermoon. I think it significantly has some effect japans cases. Who knows if there is anything worst to come, there are news about Alqaeda (terrorist group) who said they have there eyes on Cricket Worldcup 2011 which is being hosted in india.
I hope there is nothing more bad news for the world because of this supermoon.

http://www.brizzolari.com
Bharat

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bit late, a year on, a 8.6 quake from indo to arabian sea, moons close full on 7th april, irrelevant, perhaps, but we are not computers, cannot be certain only 1 thing certain from our vantage point (earth) 'unus mundus'

since the moon probably came volcanicly from the earth (heard somewhere) and has since the date of its creation brought life about the planet, (the atmosphere tides) etc weather patterns can be observed to those who can see.

solar flares preceded by buzzing in my head from the moon (only when in north hemisphere and visible or dark - ABOVE & close) I knew the quakes were coming everyone of them in the last few years, i can see the future sometimes and even have proof of my predictions not always relevant to the moon, intuition, syncronicity all madness to the untrained para -psychologist, but with faith you see the moon and earth have an intrinsic relationship , the moon doesnt apear to spin , it repels earth, so does it possess anti-gravity like a neg and pos magnet? if it did posses anti-gravity propertys which it does considering it hasnt already crashed into earth which newton tells us has "gravity" this was all before the realisation of G-force and centrifugal force, so isnt it time these relationships were studied properly from a down to earth perspective that the moon landing was faked etc, centrifugal forces and unknown metals in the core of the moon mean its all guess work, what you cant explain is how if its so STABLE and reliable, how does the moon get closer and closer and further and closer etc it does what it wants and makes a mockery of scientists who try and explain it, you dont know. all i know is when it gets a bit closer and further in the same month a force is felt in my head like electricity maybe because i'm left handed its in my left brain, since i'm the evolutional throwback - 7% population are wired like me- i'd say ive been around long enough to know the moon and earth work together maybe if humans did the same we would have a future beyond the eclipse 6/6/12 but since everyon'es so clever the solar flare in march proves that just because we perceive time as uni directional the only thing that has a clear direction in this tipsy turvy universe is electricty and magnets(they dont obey the laws of time and space because detection of force is impossible so is time but you have to anchor yourself to perceive this, which changes the test rendering your findings as false. you cannot re-create the solarsystem to test your theorys to that you would need a universe and a galaxy etc etc we already have one and it works fine , whoever designed it made sure of that, whoever controls earth the moon and the sun was real clever and has got us all inprisoned here in awe and ignorance, you cant explain it the moon does what it wants so does the planet and so do I. ApO



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