Roscosmos says only a few small pieces will survive the reentry, as the Progress is designed to mostly incinerate during its descent. However, since the space agency has no communication with the spacecraft, it's hard to know exactly where those pieces will fall. An update from the European Space Agency says the likelihood of reentry over North America or Europe is very small, and chances are good any surviving pieces will fall over the ocean, the desert, or an area without people. So there's no need to head for shelter. "It's a complete waste of time to worry about this. There are daily risks that are much higher," Holger Krag, head of the ESA's space debris office in Darmstadt, told the Guardian. "...Your chance of being struck by lightning is higher."