Supercomputer Reads the News to Successfully Forecast World Events

I hope technology will keep taking jobs so eventually we don't have to work. Imagine that - enjoying our lives instead of working for the man.

So as I understand this article they computerized, software created and put a Nostradamus in a electronic box and attaché a printer forcing him to write stories.

It’s also interesting to note that they have create other software to predict the outcome of the stock market and make good guess of future stocks. This software is actively being used today. For this software to function best, its computer servers need to be as close as possible to Wall Street. There was a story done on it "60 minutes" about these programs. On a few occasions this software guess wrong of what the stock market was doing and dumped its own stock. This in turn causes a lot of other stocks to dump that day. One day stock market did crash because of this program. They have since put in safety programs, “emergency breaks if you will", if it happens again.

Add to this the amazing new IBM computer Watson. Makes a person wonder what the future will bring. With newer faster computers and better software we all can be simulated.

@boka,

I completely agree.

We need to seriously rethink capitalism and property rights, however, before we can actually achieve a society where robots/technology/computers do much/most of our work.

I think probably the easiest way to do so in the current climate is to encourage workers to become worker-owners of their own companies.

This would provide them an incentive to increase profits while working less.

---

"Do not offer sympathy to the mentally ill.
Tell them firmly:
I am not paid to listen to this drivel.
You are a terminal boob." - William S. Burroughs

I believe there is something no algorithm could ever replicate and that is true randomeness. I don't know if any of you have programming experience but I do and true randomeness is at this moment impossible to replicate. Only a human's mind and nature can be random. Yes we can analyze trends, and forecast based on trends however we end up with the likes of our current weather forecast systems...hit and miss.

Its advancement but your computerized randomness is predictable

@Midoman:
The only real "True Randomness" lies only within the quantum-mechanical sense; however, when entire systems of randomness are looked at in differing orders of magnitude (for example, rolling a ball down a ramp or simulating nuclear bombs) the entire system becomes more or less ordered. The problem is, a simple system like rolling a ball down a ramp (freshman physics for the win) can be easily simulated, while an immensely complex system such as the human brain, weather, or the universe cannot be. This computer is simply a step towards the day when we will be able to simulate (in all of its 'randomness') the most complex systems in the universe.

@Midoman The law of large numbers all but eliminates randomness as a factor. This thing is looking at a ridiculous amount of information... and if you ask me there is no randomness. Just because you picked a "random" number doesn't mean you won't pick the same random number if time was reverted.

The reason weather forecasting isn't 100% accurate has nothing to do with randomness, I'd say that none of the factors involved are random at all. But we're still only tracking a small fraction of the factors that influence weather patterns overall.

This isn't computerized randomness and that's why it's predictable... but I doubt any human would be able to compete.

Well i love the idea but am I the only one who dosent want a computer to tell me wether I want my bread in the morning toasted or not.

Live through Wisdom and Faith

@Youngbleezy117
yes you are the only one ^^ but its a good thing... imagin when skynet will rise and evryone (me including ^^") will be trapped... YOU LL BE OUR SAVIOR ! ^^

bored? lets go mine the stars... ^^

@B.V. & boka

A life where machines perform our essential tasks effectively eliminates our usefulness. No one would do anything useful other than exist. No more TV sitcoms or reality shows, no more media, no more music, no sporting events worthy of our attention.

Maybe video games could be made by robots, but that'd also means they'd control how they're distributed. Humanity could be easily sucked into a self-defeating slothlike lifestyle where the only source of neurological stimulus would come from machine generated simulations. With our usefulness effectively ended, we could be re-purposed for anything or eliminated.

We work and think for a reason; purpose. Whether self defined or appointed, we all have purpose of some sort. The idea of machines doing all of our work for us is a dream born of rich business owners looking for the cheapest labor there is (free), or a working class 'Joe' with a dead end job and no hope for a very bleak future. For the former, machines for labor (which already exists) maximizes efficiency in production quantity and quality. For the latter, machines for labor is an escape from a lifestyle of tiresome labor and a soul crushing reality that is without joy, meaning, or purpose.

What must be understood is that all goods and services provided between people (not machines) will always come with a price. These goods and services are provided so that everyone doesn't have to do things by themselves, harboring the spirit of teamwork and cooperation on at least some level.

It should also be understood that working and thinking on our own provides relevance to our existence that may not be universally quantifiable, but justified through the quality in which we live our lives. In order for that quality to continue, people must continue to provide the goods and services that we enjoy because no machine will ever be able to completely replace everything (think about that last one for a sec in relation to the second paragraph; you might get it without me having to be too explicit).

@ pheonix1012 life without work will be more amazing than you can possible imagine. Some of us will mediate in an existence of pure, radiant bliss.

However people will be able to pursue whatever they wish. I don't have to run but I do it because I enjoy it. Running makes me feel good. Sure I could drive or take a bus but transportation is not the point of running. Same with every other activity for enjoyment.

One major problem with retsrospective analysis for creating rules, is the tendency to shift towards confirmation bias.

In ordinary terms, this means that people do have a tendency for trying to find facts to fit the events. Not the other way around. Supercomputing does not change this fact to a significant degree. Indeed, it can make the situation worse.

Essentially, what this boils down to, is how do we recognise the significant keywords marking an upcoming event? We don't. We can show a correlation, after the fact. But can we do it beforehand? Maybe. Can we do it with over 75% confidence? I strongly doubt that.

If Leetaru can, or has found an algorithm to create predictive patterns, good for him (sincerely). However, I do have my doubts...

I worry for a society that grows more dependent on computers, electronics and software what happens when the lights go off for an extended time, chaos?
If the electricity is off for a really extended time, could this be equal to a type of modern black plague and we all die, attacking each other for survival?

@phoenix1012,

"A life where machines perform our essential tasks effectively eliminates our usefulness. No one would do anything useful other than exist. No more TV sitcoms or reality shows, no more media, no more music, no sporting events worthy of our attention."

Why would a life where machines grow my food, clean my house, and extract/recycle natural resources result in the elimination of TV sitcoms, reality shows, media, music, or sporting events?

If anything, I would have (24-time spent sleeping) hours in a day to do with whatever I wanted. I could finish my sci-fi novel. I could finally have enough time to study music theory. I could have enough time to develop business ideas which are unfeasible given my current time requirements.

Even if I didn't do anything useful to other people whatsoever in my life, who cares? Even if I sat around smoking crack and beating off to porn ALL DAY EVERY DAY... s o what?

It's my life; who are you to say what I should be forced to do with it?

---

"Do not offer sympathy to the mentally ill.
Tell them firmly:
I am not paid to listen to this drivel.
You are a terminal boob." - William S. Burroughs

@becosmos

Some people would freak out like it's the end of the world. Most would just get to work on repairing the infrastructure of the society we created. That happens everytime a hurricane passes through a town.

@Quintus

That's how psychics legitimize their random meanderings. Facts are usually found to suit the situation for reason that people want to be right, and say 'I knew it all along,' or 'I told you so.' For that matter many undeniable facts can be twisted and used to support the meaning of someone else's truth.

@boka

On the contrary. Running is how we naturally transport ourselves. It's why we're designed to have legs. Our knowledge has just provided us with more useful and diverse means of transportation (riding, rolling, floating, flying).

Pure radiant bliss is not meant to be perpetuated. Eventually you have to eat, and survive. Survival dictates you provide for yourself. Means you'll have to do some kind of work in order to avoid succumbing to a natural illness, or getting devoured by other predatory creatures.

We evolved this way as a unique means of enduring. For this people work to continue elaborately surviving [Also if you think about it, mediation is a form of work. If no one wants to work, no one will want to do anything including mediate].

People who work are free to pursue whatever they wish. They don't let work inhibit them or use it as an excuse to not pursue such endeavors. People who do use work as an excuse are the types of individuals who are just too lazy to ever do anything they want to do in life. So they just find something to use to complain about it. Be it time or money, there are trade offs in everything, and what you do with your free time is entirely up to you.

I spend my free time in the pursuit of my endeavors because I can. I don't need slothlike bliss to accomplish these things. You can't live your life the way you want it unless you spend the time it takes to build your life that way. That end result of not having to work is called retirement.

@B.V.

You're right it is your life. The fact is it doesn't take a life void of labor (meaning, purpose; whatever you want to call it) to do what you want.

You can have machines to do all these things for you, but you still have to generate an income that will allow you to pay for such things. This means you have to have an occupation for which you can earn an income. To have an occupation you have to have a skill set.

If machines did everything, no one would be left to do anything. Society would be self-defeating. You can't earn money if you can't find work.

The only kind of people who would benefit from such a lifestyle would be the rich who already have invested capital and resources in cybernetics, robotics, and computer programing. You and many others would be continously replaced in many industries by a more reliable and cheap form of labor. Then you'd have nothing but free time and no viable means to spend it productively for yourself.

You can't do blow, get blown, and blow up if you don't have the money to. You might be able to do the latter two if you have a real good friend and/or a highly sufficient active imagination. Without those luxuries you'd care a whole lot.

To say we all have to work 40 hour weeks is just something that is going to have to die with the times, we will never fix unemployment problems with this mindset because as tech evolves, we will have much much less work to do as a collective. There will be a point in our lifetime, where there will be more accurate and effecient robot surgeons, there will be robots farming, there will be construction robots and military robots, you will be able to see a robot doctor to diagnose everything you could imagine, often times with just a quick drop of blood.

I am very convinced that robots can and will take over up to 90% of what was once a human work force. To say we will all degrade and have no purchasing power in this case isn't valid, because if we are producing the same amount of product or more, there will be a large surplus we didn't experience before. If anything you could shorten everyones work week to just a single day shift or two, and still pay them the same because the same resources or more are there, the just aren't human produced. It isn't like they are just going to throw away all the extra food/houses/healthcare because no one can buy them. The Venus Project does a great job of tackling some issues like these, and I highly recommend people here check out what they are trying to do. Imagine a life were instead of paying someone to watch my children, I could free myself up enough to spend my time with them playing and educating, or volunteering somewhere local. I hate that I work to pay someone else to watch my children, who is also working and not putting in the time and love I would.

I think you would be amazed at the art, volunteers, scientific development, family time, and activities ourdoors people would be able to accomplish if work didn't tie them down so much.

We do not see things as they are, we see them as we are. ~Anais Nin~

I adore gizmos and gadgets and anything that readies my toast cooked and buttered for me in the morning. But I also worry as we grow in technology we also remove ourselves from being independent of the earth.

Often in life, it is the most poor, who have learned to live off the land that survives a gigantic disaster. They were doing the survival thing all along in the first place.

And since living off the land and survival was natural for them, oddly enough they tend to be a happy bunch, too.

Blessed are the ignorant, for they do not want too much.

The very poor daily seems to just focus on family, love, caring, friendship. Beautiful!

either Skynet or the Antichrist will come from this. an all knowing "being" that resembles our idea of "god".

_________________
The people of the world only divide into two kinds, One sort with brains who hold no religion, The other with religion and no brain.

- Abu-al-Ala al-Marri

If we eliminated all need for work, human's natural creativity would be unhindered, and we would develop at a rate previously unimaginable. This would not necessarily be a good thing. Read Sphere, by Michael Crichton if you don't know what I mean.
-Spouting a fountain of nonsense since 1995-

If we can encrypt the codes hidden with in our self, We will be able to predict future events.Leetaru has done marvelous work. He fed past information to super computer, Processed the data had predicted the future events. Here i want to stress in an analogy of this to our life. I believe we are a vessel with collection of infinite information gathered from infinite previous lives.Our actions (karma)is the origin of information. If you do good karma you have good information. If you do bad karma you have bad information. These information are not disappeared just in air. These information are stored and processed within us. To interact with these new information we get new vessel (new birth).If bad information predominate you, then your present life also goes bad.If you had good information predominate bad one then you'll have good life.good environment will surround you.Therefore I believe your own karma can change space time around you.

Imagine an extreme rich person owns this type of technology and is not a good person. I wonder how one person may manipulate the masses by the fake, false information it feeds society?

@phoenix1012,

"People who work are free to pursue whatever they wish."

That is an absurd claim.

Go to a metal stamping plant, find a worker who's putting in 12 hours a day at $10/hour and tell them that same sentence and see how many teeth you come back with.

People don't need jobs--people need space to live, food to eat, water to drink, clothes to wear.

To get all of those things (and things they want), people do "jobs" to convert natural resources into things they want. People tend crops to convert sunlight and water and CO2 and minerals into foods and fabrics.

If we had no scarcity of food, we'd have no need for "farming jobs".

I think you're missing my point, because you state:

"If machines did everything, no one would be left to do anything. Society would be self-defeating. You can't earn money if you can't find work."

Go back and re-read my original comment. If I OWN a company I can do ZERO WORK and earn an income through the dividends paid to me so that I can afford to buy things that my company doesn't make.

The whole "everyone needs a job!" claim is B.S. brainwashing by the filthy rich meant to keep the peasants in their place.

Workers (who are in danger of being replaced by machines) need to organize and buy out their companies to become stock-holding workers. This way, when the time comes to replace their jobs with robots, they will do ZERO WORK and get PAID THE SAME (or more).

If all the serfs were able to do this, it would be possible to have a future where I own stock in the GM factory that makes your car, while you own stock in the Nike factory that makes my shoes and neither one of us did any work to create those items (while still exchanging the goods made by robots through money).

Do you get it now?

As soon as you drop the peasant mentality of "I need to be a wage-slave to a rich person and oppose technology that competes with my ability to earn a living" and start thinking LIKE a rich person, "I need to own the means of production and cheapen the work of producing as much as I can" then you will understand that technology/automation/free time for humanity/few-to-none-jobs-for-humans is actually a great thing.

---

"Do not offer sympathy to the mentally ill.
Tell them firmly:
I am not paid to listen to this drivel.
You are a terminal boob." - William S. Burroughs

How did this article of making artificial articles go to being everyone in the future will not be working?

What is most likely and more usual with history is we all continue working and just do not get paid for it. It just seems to be the repetitious status quo, with the rich just getting richer.

Will the future be simuliar to the old Star Trek series and energy is so abundant and all things can be made freely, people only reason to work will be to better themselves and contribute to society?

There is lots of different fantasy ideas for the future.
Wait and see, I guess.

An awesome article I read about Sir Richard Branson, commenting on a very similar subject. I love this guy!

Sir Richard Branson
Founder and Chairman, Virgin Group

"Dr. Yes"
"I get quite angry about companies in America, including some of our own, who give people such short vacations. I think you can say it's an absolute disgrace and especially for people that have families. I really do think -- and especially when you've got such high unemployment -- the jobs could be shared around amongst everybody in America. Those people that want to job-share would have longer time off with their family without being made to feel guilty by the company. You should be allowed to do so. It's a much better balance of life.

"I know how difficult it is to change that attitude, because I get the chief executives of our companies from America down to Necker to talk to them occasionally and tell them that if people want to take leave for six months, they should be able to do so. If they want to share jobs with somebody else, they should be able to do so. It's just so difficult to get people to change their attitudes. But, it's time that parents need to find time with their children and occasions like that are very important for recharging the batteries, getting healthy and coming back to work even harder."

Foundation, anyone?
-Spouting a fountain of nonsense since 1995-

Whenever a world crises has passed, someone always cites a quotation from Nostradamus and then proudly states that he predicted it.

Where's the benefit in predicting the past? Which is all the sytem has been able to do thus far.

From my understanding, the system merely tracks the mood and location of online posts. How will it be able to predict anything more than public sentiment is going to get better or worse? That is not an event. Events are caused by sparks.

The iron curtain didn't collapse because the mood was shifting. The Arab Spring started because a man set himself on fire not due to some linear progression of attitudes. The recession didn't start with everyone being glum. The riots in the UK - Maybe.

The IT and Real estate bubbles were caused by public sentiment being dead wrong. Now we want to use it as an indicator of future events?

Since computers control the stock market now, they control us. And look where they have put us.