Ok, for anyone who want's to get up to date info on Mt. Redoubt here's the address of the Alaska Volcano Observatory: www.avo.alaska.edu/

i'm guessing a flank collapse and maybe just a giant puff of ash/gravel don't count? (well... flank collapse involves a bunch of magma right?)

Here an article from: The Anchorage Daily News
www.adn.com/3322/story/675887.html

See it for yourself, web cam: www.avo.alaska.edu/webcam/Redoubt_-_Hut.php

When life gives you to many Apple IPO's make Apple sauce, now where did I put that blender?

Latest report:
"ALASKA VOLCANO OBSERVATORY WEEKLY UPDATE
Friday, February 27, 2009 01:31 PM (Friday, February 27, 2009 22:31 UTC)

REDOUBT VOLCANO (CAVW #1103-03-)
60°29'7" N 152°44'38" W, Summit Elevation 10197 ft (3108 m)
Current Aviation Color Code: ORANGE
Current Volcano Alert Level: WATCH

Unrest at Redoubt Volcano continues. No eruption has occurred.

Relatively low-amplitude volcanic tremor and intermittent discrete earthquakes characterized seismic activity at Redoubt from February 21-24. During this time, clear weather allowed many web camera and satellite views that showed nothing out of the ordinary.

On Wednesday, February 25, a broad-spectrum seismic signal at 9:29 AM AKST was likely associated with a small mud flow originating from a melt hole in the Drift glacier at about 5600 feet above sea level. This dark deposit was seen in a web camera image from 10:03 AM AKST that morning, and observers on an overflight the next day reported that the deposit was several hundred meters in length. Later the same day, at 3:37 PM AKST, tremor amplitude increased sharply and remained elevated for approximately one hour. This tremor was strong enough to be recorded on all seismic stations on Redoubt Volcano as well as many stations surrounding Cook Inlet. At 10:40 PM AKST the same night, the number of discrete earthquakes increased and remained elevated for about four hours.

On Thursday, February 26, a flurry of earthquakes began at 5:30 PM AKST and lasted for roughly one hour. These events were accompanied by the emplacement of a mudflow that covered a large portion of the upper Drift glacier, as viewed in web camera images beginning at 6:04 PM AKST. An ASTER thermal infrared satellite image from last night shows this deposit stretching several kilometers down the Drift glacier.

The recent variations in seismic activity coupled with increased melt water discharge on the upper Drift glacier indicate that conditions have changed at shallow depths beneath the volcano. It is possible that magma has moved to shallower levels in the volcanic edifice, but recent changes may be due instead to changes in degassing pathways from a deeper magma body. AVO is currently analyzing this seismic activity and will issue further information as it becomes available. A gas-measurement flight is currently underway.

Because of the clear weather this past week, AVO was able to undertake several flights to Redoubt to measure gas (February 21, and today) and perform upgrades to the monitoring network (February 21, 22, and today). Results from the February 21 gas flight reveal that the emission rates of CO2 and SO2 have not changed since February 7 and both remain high. Upgrades to the network include addition of a broadband seismometer on the volcano's west flank, installation of a pressure sensor (to detect airwaves) north of the volcano, and improvements to the power supply at the AVO hut.

AVO continues to monitor Redoubt Volcano closely, and the observatory is staffed 24 hours a day.

Heavily ice-mantled Redoubt volcano is located on the western side of Cook Inlet, 170 km (106 mi) southwest of Anchorage and 82 km (51 mi) west of Kenai, within Lake Clark National Park. Redoubt is a stratovolcano which rises to 10,197 feet above sea level. Recent eruptions occurred in 1902, 1966-68, and 1989-90. The 1989-90 eruption produced mudflows, or lahars, that traveled down the Drift River and partially flooded the Drift River Oil Terminal facility. The ash plumes produced by the 1989-90 eruption affected international air traffic and resulted in minor or trace amounts of ash in the city of Anchorage and other nearby communities"

This suckers going to blow sometime soon I bet!!!

Here's hopping that they get some nice HD cameras to cover the eruption with airshots and everything not just a webcam. Make an event out of it and let Alaska be known for something other than moose hunting governors.

For the last 6days reports at Redoubt have look like this:
"2009-03-04 08:35:55
Redoubt volcano has not erupted. Seismicity remains low, and consists mainly of small discrete earthquakes."-AVO
With activity decreased and time frame over half over it's no surprise the stock is dropping. This could be a short, however as I've said before volcanoes do as they see fit.

When life gives you to many Apple IPO's make Apple sauce, now where did I put that blender?

"2009-03-10 05:28:07
Unrest at Redoubt Volcano continues. Seismicity is at low levels compared to the past month and is dominated by small discrete earthquakes."-YVO

When life gives you to many Apple IPO's make Apple sauce, now where did I put that blender?

The observatory just down graded the staus!!

"2009-03-10 15:01:34
Today, the color code at Redoubt has been lowered from Orange to Yellow. Please see the recent information release for more details. We will no longer post updates on Redoubt every two hours. A status report will be issued daily by 1PM AKDT and posted on our website."-YVO: www.avo.alaska.edu/activity/Redoubt.php
This looks very short now, with only 21days to go.

When life gives you to many Apple IPO's make Apple sauce, now where did I put that blender?

Just got upped back to orange again, and if you click the link below check out the pictures of the activity going on now. This really is going to blow any day now.

Pics:
www.avo.alaska.edu/volcanoes/volcact.php?volcname=Redoubt&page=images&eruptionid=610

Todays update:
"Seismic activity at Redoubt has increased since about 13:00 AKDT and is continuing. An AVO observation flight reported that a steam and ash plume rose as high as 15,000 ft above sea level and produced minor ash fall on the upper south flank of Redoubt. Last reports are that the plume is now mainly steam."

"Based on this change in activity AVO is increasing the level of concern and alert level to ORANGE/WATCH."

"It does not appear at this time that a significant eruption is likely in the short term, but conditions may evolve rapidly."

"AVO is monitoring the situation closely and the AVO operations center in Anchorage is now resuming 24 hour per day staffing."
From: www.avo.alaska.edu/activity/Redoubt.php

This has over 2 weeks left on the Payout for this Prop, I think this is going LONG for sure!!!!

Growler30,
Why post a new thread in the General Section and type the same thing in two places? If people are too lazy to check both places, then they deserve to lose out on the great research you have been doing.

IDK, just trying to be helpful I guess. I really hate the way this forum is set up, and I guess this was an attempt to compensate for the crappy setup and to help out the class of internet illiterate people, not saying everyone here is just the few that are, too. I shall not discriminate, my research is your research.:) I figure if I share what I found or know then maybe other people will pick up the trend and we would all learn a lot more and maybe even have more accurate data to base our decisions off of. IDK, like I said, just trying to help everyone out.

Check out this link I found to a couple of pictures I found Taken Jan 31st 2009 of some of the Fumarole's that have opened up on Redoubt.
www.en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Redoubtfumarole01312009.jpg

UPDATE: EARTHQUAKE 4.3 IN REDOUBT REGION
Redoubt Volcano Latest Observations
2009-03-16 17:39:15
A M4.3 regional earthquake was recorded at 05:13 PM AKDT located 23 miles west of Clam Gulch. www.earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsus/Quakes/ak00096043.php

\/-Another good link, just copy and paste and will work-\/
neic.usgs.gov/neis/recent/ak00096043_l.html

Tremor remains at relatively low levels at Redoubt.
2009-03-16 16:36:31
Elevated levels of seismic activity continue. Low level volcanic tremor and small discrete earthquakes have been occurring since this morning, but at a lower level than most of yesterday.

Clouds have obscured the volcano in satellite and web camera views today.

AVO is monitoring unrest at Redoubt closely and the operations center is staffed 24 hours per day. We will try to update this section of the web page every one to two hours or as new information becomes available.

Source: Alaska Volcano Observatory

Alot of cool and great images from March 15th, 2009 has been added to the Alaskan Volcano Observatory website. There are some great onces where you can see the cracks in the crater from the major blow out it had the other day, and you can also see the new vents and runoff of ash and crud in these new pics to, so check them out if you have time...

www.avo.alaska.edu/volcanoes/volcact.php?volcname=Redoubt&page=images&eruptionid=610

The 4.3mag quake was at the tectonic plate boundaries of the
Pacific and North American plates, in what is known as a subduction zone quake. Such quakes aren't linked to the volcano, any farther than the possibility of the quake triggering a landslid on the mountain.

When life gives you to many Apple IPO's make Apple sauce, now where did I put that blender?

I did not read that deep into the article, but it was with in 100KM of Redoubt if I read it right. I was not sure if it was related, but the did mention it on the Alaska Volcano Observatory website, still not saying it was relevant just interesting that it was so close. Seems the tremors are backing off some, but it did this for a few days before it blew all the ash 15000 ft into the air so it still is very likely this thing could blow soon.

The Alaska Volcano Observatory still has the orange color code up but they also state that an eruption in the near future is unlikely. It has been 11 years since the last eruption so I am betting it will hold out another 14 days. We all have to take the wait and see road.

Maybe so, but if it comes down to it I will flip my stock on the last day. I am sorry, but everybody holding this short is going to feel really dumb if it goes and they are holding short. I am watching this one closely, and if it does go I am going to email the person that can Halt it ASAP and you if you are short you will be sorry. What does it hurt to hold long until the last day, then I would say it is safe to flip it. That is the smart thing to do, and the only way to almost promise you a good payout instead of a loss on this prop. Do what you want, I have been holding this long since it 50 a share, I will make money either way...

Best advice, DO NOT SHORT THIS NOW, YOU MAY LOSE ALL YOUR MONEY!!!

"Also note what he teekar2620 left out, although this all what they said....
2009-03-17 18:40:39

Seismicity is at low levels and marked by small discrete earthquakes. Nothing unusual is seen in the web camera, although conditions are mostly cloudy.

Seismic activity at Redoubt has been low over the past 24 hours but remains above background levels.

Partially clear views by satellite showed nothing unusual in the last 24 hours. Clear views by web camera this morning show nothing unusual.

It does not appear at this time that a significant eruption is likely in the short term, BUT CONDITIONS MAY EVOLVE RAPIDLY. AVO is monitoring the situation closely and the AVO operations center in Anchorage is STAFFED 24 HOURS A DAY."

The key statement to support what I am saying is in all CAPS...

This may not go in the next five hours, but we still have 2 weeks left on the Prop. I know volcanoes, and when they go you will not get anymore warning than you already are, and I assure you this will be able to halt the second the erupts, all you have to do is know who to ask. IDK why people are not seeing the logic in this, you can short it and still be safe for the next 2 weeks, but if you go short and it blows while you are not online or paying attention you just lost. I will admit that flipping this to short on the last day is the right move if it has not blown yet, but not yet, that is the wrong move IMO...

Just trying to help, do whatever you want. Either way I will come out ahead, will you???

2009-03-18 10:33:49
The Alaska Volcano Observatory has lowered the Aviation Color Code to YELLOW and the Alert Level to Advisory for Mount Redoubt.

AVO will continue to monitor Redoubt closely, but will no longer be formally staffed 24 hours per day.

This will be the last hourly (or bi-hourly) update until further notice.

"What does it hurt to hold long until the last day, then I would say it is safe to flip it"

But if you buy 1000 long at $50 and it drops to $10 on the last day when you flip, you have lost $40,000 and only gained $10,000 when you flipped. That's a net loss of $30,000 so yes, it DOES hurt to hold the stock long until the last day.

My bet is this will be big news if it does blow so I will hear about it and have plenty of time to flip before PPX is able to halt it. They have a long history of not being too quick to halt after news breaks.

on second thought, my math may be off a bit if the stock closed long at 100, but the idea still holds - if you ride the stock even if it is going the wrong way you will make a lot more money, and you will have time to flip if the news changes.

UPDATE: "ORANGE/WATCH 2009-03-21 22:09:44 - VAN/VONA
AVO is raising the aviation color code to Orange and the alert level to Watch. Seismic activity has continued to increase and conditions may evolve rapidly culminating in an eruption within days to weeks.
"-AVO
"2009-03-21 13:23:38 - Status Report
Shallow earthquake activity under the volcano that began yesterday continues. Activity is primarily seen on the stations nearest the summit, though some events are also recorded at farther-out stations. A steam plume rising as high as approximately a thousand feet above the volcano is visible on the web cameras, but no explosive or ash activity such as occurred last Sunday has been identified. AVO is watching the activity closely but remaining at Yellow/Advisory at this time.
It is still possible for unrest at the volcano to change rapidly, and seismic activity or other signs of unrest could escalate over time periods as short as 24 hours or less. Minor explosive activity such as was seen March 15 could occur with little or no warning.
A field crew at the volcano today installed one non-telemetered seismometer and will try for a second later this afternoon."-AVO

An important item is: "Activity is primarily seen on the stations nearest the summit, though some events are also recorded at farther-out stations"-AVO. The seismic activity recorded being picked up on the upper stations near the summit but not lower ones is the result of rock being fractured high up with in the volcano. The forces most like responsible for this fracturing of rock are.
1. Steam for water that has flowed into the volcano's hydrological system, with is what caused the March 15, 2009 explosion.
2. Magma intrusion/volcanic gas pressure, in which magma and gases under pressure fractures rock as moves though the volcanic system following the path of lest resistance.
It's highly likely that both of these are behind the seismic activity being seen at the summit.

When life gives you to many Apple IPO's make Apple sauce, now where did I put that blender?

Seismic data can be viewed here: www.avo.alaska.edu/rsam/rsam.php?volcname=Redoubt

When life gives you to many Apple IPO's make Apple sauce, now where did I put that blender?

"2009-03-22 16:00:40
The view of Redoubt from the hut webcam is now obscured by clouds. Seismicity continues at an elevated level with discrete earthquakes being recorded at a rate of about 50 to 60 per hour."-AVO

When life gives you to many Apple IPO's make Apple sauce, now where did I put that blender?

"2009-03-22 21:32:08
Over the last two hours, seismicity at Redoubt has increased significantly.
No eruption has yet occurred, however at these heightened levels of seismicity, there could be a quick escalation to eruptive activity."-AVO

Looks like it may be going critical, seismic web record is off the chart.
www2.avo.alaska.edu/webicorders/Redoubt/RSO_EHZ_AV.php
www2.avo.alaska.edu/webicorders/Redoubt/RDN_EHZ_AV.php

When life gives you to many Apple IPO's make Apple sauce, now where did I put that blender?

There she blows.

Growler - Where are you man?! Volcano is still active and Redoubt erupted. Get ahold of your contact and get this thing halted. You have the connection to get this done to keep players from flipping (up 6.75 already). You are falling asleep at the switch.