Well here's a prop with a good chance of paying out long that's taken an odd dive today. A little research showed why...
Microsoft bought the Kumo.com domain name and is apparently looking to rebrand their Live Search feature, so it seems like a reasonable assumption that the two might go together.
What seems to have creeped into the mix is a Venezuelan named Dascar Samira Facendo who applied for a trademark on the name "Kumo" shortly after speculation arose about Microsoft's acquisition of the kumo.com domain name. You can see the Patent Office record of the filing at "http://www.uspto.gov/main/trademarks.htm
Go to "search trademarks" and type "kumo" into the "search terms" field.
There's speculation that this person may have filed the application hoping for a Microsoft payout to get around the trademark application. If so, that's not going to be a big deal for MS... they can afford it if they want it.
Another possibility is that this person might have some connection with Microsoft, though I can't imagine why MS would register a trademark through a third party.
But some reports are saying this puts Microsoft in a "quandry", like the often web-republished article at "http://www.techflash.com/mobile/view_article/?id=35318814&pln=6
But why is this a "quandry"? This is only an APPLICATION for a trademark, not an actual trademark. No rights have been granted, and it's unlikely this individual will actually obtain a trademark.
Check out some easily read FAQ's about trademark applications at "http://www.tmexpress.com/TME_Q&A2.php#AppFAQ
You'll see this bit: "If you plan to use a new trade name in interstate commerce (between two States), or between the United States and another country, then an Intent-to-Use (ITU) application may be filed... You must begin actual use of the mark in commerce before the USPTO will register the mark; that is, after filing an application based on "intent to use," you must later file another form called the "Allegation of Use" to establish that use has begun.
By filing an ITU application, the applicant has 6 months after receiving the Notice of Allowance from the USPTO to use the mark in interstate commerce. If the applicant has not used the mark in commerce during the 6-month period, the applicant may file for an "Extension of Use", provided good faith efforts have been made to use the mark in commerce."
If you're still following, then here's the situation in short; 1.) the person who filed this trademark application has six months to set up a search engine (the application is for an internet search engine) that engages in international commerce within 6 months, or they will not be able to claim the trademark, 2.) an application does NOT guarantee a trademark if someone else successfully uses the trademark before the applicant, and 3.)Microsoft can buy this person off in a heartbeat with cold cash or the threat of litigation.
In other words, the applicant for this trademark means ****** (asterisks represent a term for "cold dog feces served in a styrofoam cup").
Unless there are further developments to confound this question, this prospect looks long.
Oh, by the way, the trademark application was registered August 8, 2009. MS can wait the six months if they want and still fire up the Kumo name in January, and be ready to go before the prop's April 2 deadline.
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On top of old smokey...
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So just to clarify: You're saying it's long... long... long...
Right?
I think I'd go with one "long". There's still plenty of uncertainty in this prop, but I'd rather be holding it long because the evidence seems to be pointing that way... and there's really no evidence against it.
WIRED has a report today that Microsoft is using the name KUMO.com already inside the company.
There are links to news stories inside the prop page, but here is one for you lazy types.
www.wired.com/techbiz/media/news/2009/03/reuters_us_microsoft
Back when I wrote the bit above I suspected that MS might have things a bit more fleshed out than (in retrospect) they actually were. We have a lot of news popping up about Kumo now, with screen shots and news releases that it is under development, but one nagging phrase appears in all the announcements; that the Kumo name and domains are all being used for "internal testing".
Which means Microsoft has not announced a beta testing. They did this with LiveSearch, announcing the beta on March 7, 2006.
www.microsoft.com/presspass/press/2006/mar06/03-07WLSBUnveiledPR.mspx
They did not formally change MSN search to Live Search until September 11, 2006, announced with the uninspiring but familiar "MSN Search is now Live Search" slogan.
That's six months between announcing the beta and the formal change.
It's March, and there's no beta.
"This proposition will pay off at POP$100 per share if Microsoft’s Live Search is renamed “Kumo” by April 2, 2009 at 3 p.m. EST."
I'd say this prop is seriously short, short, short.