Carrying the flag that props should not close on Jan 1st.
Does the announcement need to have independent verification?

Questions:

What if gene therapy for AIDS turns out to be a viable treatment, but not a cure? Obviously AIDS patients will see that as a success, but will we as prop gamblers?

What if a miracle drug comes out that cures AIDS, but is unrelated to gene therapy? Again, AIDS patients of the world will rejoice. But if a drug like that comes out, 3 years from now, and gene therapy treatment is abandoned due to costs and lack of need, are we going to ride a 6 year short? I'm not saying this is a bad thing, I just want to make sure this is what we are agreeing to.

I don't have a huge problem with this Jan. 1 prop, because it's 2018. As long as we don't stack up 5+ props on the same date, the occasional Jan. 1 is fine. But this is a 9 year prop, not a 10 year prop, right? Otherwise, the date should be 2019. Just checking.....

I agree with Chef. If a cure came through that had nothing to do with Gene Therapy, would this be a short? It needs specifics.

Also, does a cure have to be 100% accurate? Say they were to test the cure on 1000 people and 999 were cured but the last one wasn't?

I think it reads better like this: This proposition will pay off at POP$100 per share if by January 1, 2018 by 3 p.m. EST., a scientist announces that they’ve developed a gene-therapy AIDS cure.

Also do scientists "announce" cures, or do they announce various stages of testing/implementation?

I think the point in which it's considered a cure should be clarified (lab tests, human tests, or publicly available)

Also I may not be speaking for everyone here, but I do think that if you don't wanna keep up the 3-prop-per-week rate while you are on vacation, we will understand.

Wow-- great points. These did need clarification. The new payout criteria is below. Also-- Traderboi, thanks! I'll keep doing the props but I may be slow on email responses (but I have everyone's emails and will get to them, I promise).

Thanks for your careful review of this prop!

t

This proposition will pay off at POP$100 per share if a scientist announces, by January 4, 2018 by 3 p.m. EST, that they’ve developed a gene-therapy AIDS cure (proven effective on at least 50% of human test subjects).

Notes: This prop will only pay short if a gene-therapy AIDS cure is not announced by its closeout date. If another (non- gene therapy) cure is announced before the closeout date, the prop will not short because of it.