There were 32 turns for the day. It was quite a wild day. It seems unlikely that the activity was coincidental or random. It was especially notable for occurring on a Saturday.

-erick99
http://www.ppxchat.com/

On a saturday there would be a lot less people checking in so more opportunity for the unsavory characters to move up in the rankings. I've kind of given up trying to follow the trends and just hope that my positions on the stocks end of being the correct ones so at the end of it I get paid out.

There is a simple fix to this. Everytime an account gets to a million dollars, that account is zeroed out and must start again at $50 or $100,000. The reason I do this is it is an enjoyable way to keep up with what is going on in the world and giving my opinion on it in the form of betting. Those sorry individuals that some how get an ego boost by cheating might just leave us so the rest of us can enjoy the intended object of this fun site.

I have just decided to Quit waveriding because of this carnage on saturday , I have decided not to follow the stock movements anymore to prevent the manipulators from taking advantage of this. I ask all the other Wave riders just to quit waveriding for a few (5 to 14) days and maybe that will force the manipulators out of here.

I avoid my portfolio most of the time. I used to be able to keep up with the trends and know if I held fast to what I knew to be either a long or a short, I would end up gaining. The carnage of the manipulators has bumped me down 6 spots (not a big deal in the big picture, but it cost me more than 50K easily in the span of a few days). This tells me that there are people playing the system.

I like the game, but take a look at your charts for the stocks listed above and try to say there is no manipulation. I swear, some have so many spikes they look like a hand saw.

Blatant manipulation is apparent, and i am curious to why Admins have not noticed this earlier. Waveriding is understandable, but this seems too obvious. (It might happening today the lowest top mover is at 2.50) Some stocks move .75-.100 points in a matter of MINUTES. This means that either a group of individuals is viewing the stock at the exact convienient time, or manipulation. Thanks for stepping up to the plate and saying something m.

Today's top "Week-to-Date" trader had a total week to date increase of 42.37%. With a portfolio value of around 499,000 (which they had), that's a $149,000 increase in 3 days, it just doesn't seem very possible to me and I don't remember anyone being this high yesterday. It could be market manipulation/cheating, i don't know, but it could be a problem

Hi All
Sorry for the silence. We've taking a look into this. It's not readily apparent that there's manipulation at play--we've tweaked the movement threshold, and if the problem persists we'll have a better idea of what's going on.

this "phenomena" generally occurs right around 1AM est. And, tonite, right on schedule, three stocks flipped right at 1AM: GPHON, SMRTSHOT, and SPRWMX.

[01:00] <@Turner> GPHON 13.25 +1.00
[01:00] <@Turner> HOTAIR has turned UP
[01:00] <@Turner> HOTAIR 52.50 +0.50
[01:00] <@Turner> SMRTSHOT has turned UP
[01:00] <@Turner> SMRTSHOT 39.25 +0.50
[01:00] <@Turner> SPRWMX has turned UP
[01:00] <@Turner> SPRWMX 54.75 +0.25

A few minutes prior, GPHON had turned up and was already up a full dollar in less than five minutes.

And tomorrow night, around 1AM EST, this will happen again.

-erick99
http://www.ppxchat.com/

and a few minutes later . . .

[01:10] <@Turner> EEE10 has turned DOWN

-erick99
http://www.ppxchat.com/

Same crap, different night :)

[00:05] <@Turner> SMRTSHOT has turned DOWN
[00:05] <@Turner> SPRWMX has turned DOWN
[00:10] <@Turner> BCTEST has turned UP
[00:10] <@Turner> EEE10 has turned UP
[00:15] <@Turner> SEEDS has turned DOWN
[00:20] <@Turner> HOTAIR has turned DOWN
00:25] <@Turner> REDRAIN has turned UP
[00:31] <@Turner> DBSDEP has turned UP
[00:31] <@Turner> EADSPLN has turned UP

9 turns in 26 minutes so far . . .

Notice that SPRWMX and SMRTSHOT are both flipped every night and always together. Stocks that flip at other times during the day might move .25 or .50 but these stocks will move as much as $1.50 in a matter of minutes. This is concentrated activity and it really smacks of bots.

-erick99
http://www.ppxchat.com/

[00:35] <@Turner> VRGNTST has turned UP

-erick99
http://www.ppxchat.com/

I will try to do a better analysis of this tomorrow and publish it on ppxchat. Or, maybe it gets fixed and that won't be necessary. I hope the folks at PopSci can figure it out. It really isn't hurting the folks who participate in #ppx because we are expecting now so can react quickly. But, if you live on the east coast and you were asleep, you could have lost as much as $12,750 this evening.

-erick99
http://www.ppxchat.com/
http://www.yourfavoritegadgets.com/

I love the lack of any meaningful comments on this by admins. This is just nuts.

I think there are several factors at play with the midnight to 2am est turns.

I suspect when the daily change column for all stocks is set to zero at midnight on the east coast, it becomes easier to change the direction a stock is moving in. Perhaps the system doesn't consider trades made before midnight - or perhaps there is just less trading in the time frame considered before midnight. This is probably the biggest factor.

If this is the case, players will figure this out and take advantage of it.

Next, the reset to zero makes it easier to identify what stocks have moved today.

Many of us know to expect these changes so we're looking for them and ready to pounce. With 22k registered players, it could be enough people can find a change quickly enough to look like bots.

I have two suggestions for ways that might fix this, but I'll start off by saying I suspect even small tweaks to the system will have a significant effect. The problem will be finding a balance that keeps the game moving and fun without getting silly.

Changes in stock prices should be mostly affected by the direction of the last x trades. Perhaps this number needs to be adjusted based on the number of active participants, and people holding the stock.

Another fix might be to make it so stocks can't change more than a quarter within a time frame of between two and five minutes.

Another alternative is perhaps the stock price should just float based on the percentage of people holding it each way with a governor to limit how quickly the price can change. This might not have been practical when there were fewer players, but it probably would be now.

The easy way to fix manipulation is to simply limit each person to a max of two trades on any stock in one day. You could change postion or cover/short to free up cash just not wave ride at all. I, and others brought this up just about from day one of PPX. Yes it would cut down on market volatility, that should be a good thing! Remember this is a predictive exchange, not a game to see who gets richest fastest.

On a side note, get ride of the %gain contest and put one in based on most accurate prediction. Trying to win the contest gives people a reason to find ways to beat the market. Taking away the reason could go a long way towards getting rid of the problem.

the contest is irrelevant anyway because the more money you make the less likely you are to win

Half a bee, philosophically, must ipso-facto, half not be.

Perhaps Admin. isn't commenting in this forum at all because they are the ones manipulating the stocks. By manipulating them, they control the outcomes, or at least influence them. Whether this is a good or bad thing, it's hard to say. In reality though, there isn't much that you can do.

I might be part of this problem. I saw the pattern two weeks ago... and I've been playing it ever since.

But let's get down to brass tacks. msholdenct has made over 120K THIS WEEK on the weird stock changes.

You can extrapolate all you want.. but I accuse msholdenct of (at best) automated trading, and (at worst) engineering stock swings.

No way someone makes that much off these stock swings without "help".

And downvirus is in on the play.

Might as well accuse chrisitux and erick99 as well since they have made just as msholdenct much or a bit more. Come to mention it, vulgarian, you haven't done too shabby yourself. What kind of bot do you use?

I don't use automated trading.

I'm normally awake from about 7:20am until around 1:30am. When I've seen activity on ppx late at night I'll stay up a bit later.

I have a computer at my comfy chair in my living room, and at my desk at the office. I keep a couple browser windows open and dedicated to ppx pages.

I'm good at multi tasking. I can check in on ppx about as often as I take a sip of my iced tea or gatorade.

Going a point further, if you look at my recent posts, I've suggested the kinds of factors I think might be at play, and ideas that might help calm things down so we end up with lively play that isn't silly.

Nope, don't buy it. I noticed the nighttime swings and I played them... and though they made virtual money, they did not make anywhere near as much as msholdenct has this week. Props have been reversing at odd times throughout the day, too.

There are plenty of other traders who follow the market just as closely as msholdenct. There are plenty of traders who have portfolios large enough to play a slew of moving stocks.

But there is only ONE trader who made over 100K this week.

Erick99, Chrisitux, and I probably came closest, but we earned around 70-80K each according to the "top gainers" report from PPX. msholdenct made 120K.

I urge PopSci to take a close look at msholdenct's trading patterns. I suspect that there are other accounts trading in concert with him, and his trades were probably made in advance of a prop's reversal.

Nobody in the chatroom is cheating. It is not what we are about. We are, however, pretty good at playing the game and it is more than playing the swings at night. Sorry you feel the way you do but you are completely wrong and saying it loudly doesn't make it right. You are slandering a fine player without absolutely no proof.

-erick99
http://www.ppxchat.com/

Could limit prices also have something to do with it? Once a stock starts going down, the traders trade goes through, and starts a chain reaction. this also means there are multiple players with multiple accounts. Wheres rabbit been lately? (Oh and Erick99, its vulgarian is acutally using libel[slander through a fixed medium] instead of slander, no disrespect intended. I Think too many people are poitning fingers without actual evidence)

I don't buy your arguments, vulgarian. First of all, you have offered up no proof. Who are the "plenty of other traders" that watch PPX as closely as msholdenct? Name names, and cite how you got that information.

Also, in my last post, I asked you what kind of bot you used. You didn't answer, not even to say that you don't use one. Your silence on this issue seems damning.

Perhaps, since you have a guilty mind, you assume other players ahead of you in the rankings have done the same thing. We do know, for example, that you are guilty of manipulation.

After all, on your post dated 02/10/08 in this thread you admitted to playing the "midnight swings" that erick99 has observed. According to the PPX trading rules located here (http://ppx.popsci.com/help/index.php) "PPX defines market manipulation as engaging in any activity which may artificially affect the market price of a security". That's what you are doing when you play the "midnight swings".

Oh, m_novotny, please realize high-school debate strategies don't work in the real world.

But before I get into this reply, I want to apologize for so hastily pointing a finger. msholdenct may indeed monitor PPX to an unhealthy extent, and may have produced these gains without collusion or automation.

I personally don't think so, but it's possible.

Now, for m_novotny....

I don't use a bot. If I did, I'm sure I'd be doing much better.

Reluctantly I admit that I do play the waves. I prefer to ride the ones I can predict rather than reacting to those in process. So I watch trading patterns and research the props. I put my research up in the forums to help other traders who do not want to do research. The end is self-serving, but my research has proven to be correct more often than not.

It's called enlightened self-interest. The more true information I put out there, the more likely people will be to see things my way. And the more I research, the better my picks will be. That way I can be in on the payoffs a lot sooner, picking the winners and losers WEEKS before other traders.

By saying I "played" the late night swings, I meant that I saw the pattern and switched my investments in advance so that I could profit from them. This is like wave riding, except I was catching the wave before it showed up on the board. Is it any worse than what you do?

"PPX defines market manipulation as engaging in any activity which may artificially affect the market price of a security", you quoted. Bravo.

Isn't that what wave-riding does? Pile onto a rising or falling stock, thus exaggerating the price swing. Regardless of whether you have a belief in the prop?

No, I don't "have a guilty mind" or "assume other players ahead of (me) in the rankings have done the same thing." Frankly, I assume the players ahead of me are only there temporarily. I believe in knowledge, information, and fair play. I do not believe in manipulation.

On a final note to mshodenct... the claim that you "multitask" well is not convincing. Read up a little bit on current research... "multitasking" is becoming a term for "doing several things badly at once". To trade so well as to beat other top traders by 50%, without assistance or automation... is pretty much a sign of single-mindedness.

Thanks for allowing for the possibility I don't cheat.

I don't.

My take is there is an advantage to wave riders if things change direction or show movement at the start of the day because it'll be easier for other people to find the stock is moving and hop on the wave.

So people are adjusting their play to take advantage of the way the system works.

You don't need to be a rocket scientist to figure this out.

Some people who might not understand this are simply predicting the predictions exchange based on recent trends.

By trying to hop on the wave before it starts, you may have shifted the trades before midnight, and this might have helped calm things down in the midnight-2am timeframe. Or it could just be people were away for the weekend. We might get an indication of this tonight.

My strategy includes reviewing my portfolio at least once a day to identify stocks that are stalled after moving the wrong way, and reversing my position. Sometimes this turns them. Often it'll take 12-48 hours for them to turn. Sometimes I get stung and they keep moving the wrong way or they stay dormant for a week or two.

I also avoid waves that are going the wrong way if I don't expect them to continue moving at least another $1.25 after I find them. That's really what it costs to reverse a position - half a buck for commissions up front, a quarter to discover the next reversal, and half a buck to switch back.

I'm glad you've realized that high school debate strategies don't work in the real world, vulgarian. So when are you going to stop using them?

For someone that doesn't believe in manipulation, you sure have a way with words...

Erick99 whether you intend it to or not, or whether people are using it as such, your turner bot in ppx chat, is one of the best tools for manipulation.

Isn't it a little... odd... that downvirus hasn't made any posts on the forums? He hasn't made ANY on the new forums, and he wasn't a member of the old forums. downvirus, if you are reading this, what's your strategy? You are doing GREAT!

Milkweed the number of people who don't post is far greater than the number of us who do, so I don't think thats strange.

Its the 80/20 thing we discussed in the old forums

I know, but nothing? Not one post. That's odd.

Yeah i think your right, you've gotta be curious to see what the forums have to offer.

I just calculated his earnings this month for the contest: 29 percent gain of 418k would be close to 123k in 11 days. Thats about 11000 per day. That is an excellent gain.

Earlier this month downvirus had around a 49% increase in the contest standings but the next day had around 24% increase so I think he was already caught cheating earlier this month and had 25% deducted. But he is still winning the contest, seem a little unfair?

Ryank if he was caught cheating he wouldn't have lost 25% of his percentage increase but 25% of his net worth, So if he started with 300K and gained 50% and would have a net 0f 450K. If he was found guilty of cheating he would have lost $112500 dropping him to $337500. his increase would then only be around 12.5, so he didn't get busted for cheating, plus he wouldn't keep doing what he got busted for since he would know he could get caught. I think its more likely that the leader board was in error and was corrected.

Mr. Hartley, the turner bot in the chatroom uses the xml feed supplied by PopSci / PPX. It is updated not in real time, but every five minutes.

I can guarantee that the bot is not the only thing using that feed, or even the most sophisticated. All it does is track the price of propositions.

It's not exactly rocket science to write a script for something like that. Just about anyone could write something that would scrape the xml feed and automate their trades.

Mr M_novotny:

Anyone could write a scraper and automate their trades which is why it is against the rules. But with turner bot they don't have to it's all right there to notify people of changes . Also lets be clear I never accused anyone of cheating I just said that the turner bot is a great tool if one was looking to cheat. Knowing which way prices are going and being alerted to that gives those traders using a scraper or the turner bot an advantage, and also allows the to ride waves more efficiently to the point that they are no longer wave riding but actually pushing the wave. And wave riders want to push the waves because they have to at least ensure that the recoup enough to make the jump worthwhile.

What you say is about being alerted to turns is true. That's the reason Popsci set up the xml feed.

The turner bot, is in essence no different than ppxbroker. It's true that this information isn't in a collection of nicely formatted graphs, but it is legal just the same, and it's why Popsci has an xml feed for it.

If, however, you think it's unfair that it's not as widely available as ppxbroker... well, erick99 has repeatedly invited everyone to come to the chat room. He's left instructions both in the old forums and on the chatroom website www.ppxchat.com. So, this tool is open for use by everyone, but they have to go to it, because it will not go to them.

Actually m-novotny I said the same thing about ppx broker. Getting prompted to turns makes it significantly easier to force a wave, and it reduces the number of accounts or trades that anyone person would need to make a reversal or stock jump worthwhile. If I figure out that it takes X-number of accounts or trades to move a stock .25 and I know that the wave riders seeing the change will jump on it and move the stock another .5 or more for me, being first in I reap the whole move, then as people (who are not active wave riders but who are ticked that they just lost money) start to adjust their position the stock the stock goes up a bit more then settles down. But now that the stock has settled it is time for me to start another movement that the wave riders jump on pushing the wave higher. Now we have some smart wave riders who see a pattern so they start thinking one of two things I know which stocks are going to reverse so I'm going to do it before the change starts (which of course just helps the person manipulating because now they have to do even fewer trades or use fewer accounts to trigger a move). Or the smart wave rider jumps in quicker knowing from the pattern that these changes and moves are going to be profitable as long as you jump in soon enough, which of course just strengthens the movement and ensures that it will increase or decrease enough to warrant the move. Wave riders knowingly or unknowingly are a fundamental part of the manipulation that you all complain about, and the tuner bot, and ppx broker are the tools of the wave riders, and would be a tool for anyone wanting to manipulate the market. And it all gets very cloudy because although the manipulator makes money, so do the wave riders and if I make sure that my primary account doesn't always reap 100% of the move it looks like I just wave ride really well.

David, PPXbroker had a feature that "suggested" what stocks to buy. PPXchat has no such thing. While it is true that PPXchat could be an excelent tool for cheating, I think that it is just an excelent tool. It is only a cheater's tool if you choose to do bad things with it.

Milkweed I agree it's how you use the tool. But since many of those yelling the loudest about manipulation are also some of the biggest users of the turner bot, they should be aware of the Hypocrisy, especially among those who wave ride. Manipulating is made significantly easier thanks to the wave riders, and wave riding is significantly easier thanks to the turner bot and PPX broker before it. And no matter how innocent you want to pretend to be or how frequently you say I'm just riding the wave, chances are your pushing the wave, whether you started or not. You can't have it both ways.

Milkweed110 says:
"It is only a cheater's tool if you choose to do bad things with it."

Rubicon Tom says:
If you can do bad things with it, .then it is a cheater's tool.

You choosing not to do bad things with it does not make it any less of a cheater's tool.

Well said rubicon.

Using that logic, everybody uses cheater's tools all the time.

I don't use Turner bot, nor did I use ppx broker to find when stock changes were occurring, the only thing I ever used ppx broker for and which I miss it greatly for was the ability to see when the end dates for everything was in one easy sort.

If all the wave riders stopped wave riding then the manipulators would be greatly hampered, and would require a whole lot more time and energy to effect any meaningful changes.+

Using your logic, baseball bats are murder weapons, because they could be used to commit murder.

Turner reports news, and can be asked for historical information.

People who are creating automated trades are probably getting their information from the same place Turner does - the XML feed PPX provides.

There are less than 20 regulars in #ppx. It's a social atmosphere where people talk about whatever is going on in their life, and naturally we spend some time discussing strategy, and our thoughts on stocks.

Anyone is welcome to participate. You can find information at www.ppxchat.com

And if you find some one beat to death by what appears to be a long blunt object, and you find a baseball bat next to the body, you don't start looking for a gun, you look at the bat.

msholdenct you obviously missed the whole point. Even if you are using the turner bot without the intent to cheat, but use it to wave ride then you are helping any one who manipulates the market, in their manipulation by strengthening the wave a manipulator intentionally put in play. The main thing wave riders are really upset about is that by starting the wave, someone out there is making more money than they are, wave riders just aren't brave enough to take the jump first, they wait for others to start movement jump on and then hope that there is enough wave riders to cover commissions and make a profit. And yet they want to smugly accuse anyone who caught the wave earlier than they did of cheating.

I think having less than 20 people paying attention in a room that's available to anyone who bothers to show up is not the problem.

With over 22k players, 20 should not be able to change the direction, let alone cause it to move over a buck in five minutes.

Personally, I think lots of players have figured out when it's easier to turn stocks, or when they're most likely to turn, and they're showing up to participate.

As I see it, the problem is finding a way for the game to have lively play to keep people interested without it being so twitchy.

I don't know where the thresholds are, but my impression is it's not based on the percentage of people holding a stock one way or the other, but recent sales activity. This may have made sense when PPX was just starting, but presumably now it's large enough to float the price based just on ownership.

I expect this would slow things down because most stocks are probably included in thousands of portfolios. But perhaps it would slow things down too much.

I expect PPX staff is careful about telling us what factors are in play because the information could be used to manipulate the system.

No, the PPX admins don't tell us anything at all. Just look at the situation with STS122, or even the market-manipulation thing. The admins just don't talk to us anymore.

msholdenct; and yet people are assuming that one rouge person could be manipulating the system

It could be a gang of little PPX-addicted rouge geeks who have decided to turn the system upside down. It's unlikely, though.

HI All
I'm pasting the relevant manipulation information from a different thread, apologies to those reading it twice.

First, my apologies for not responding sooner. You're right that there has been a dearth of responses; the relaunch of both PPX and PopSci and the subsequent cleanup, and debugging has taken up a considerable chunk of time and has impacted our level of response. Rest assured, we read the forums constantly and do address problems you bring up, but we haven't been communicating much of that to you, and that's half the issue.

We've looked into the manipulation issue and my previous post on it stands; it is very unlikely that manipulation is at play, despite the decidedly suspicious movement. I actually don't want to say too much about the mechanics of our trade information system, but we should be making a script adjustment in the next week or two that will make this a moot issue.

Yo, don't be blamin' Turner, yo. My boy Turn' is my homie, hater!

I think that if the monthly price for the best trader is removed, then goes the motivation for the turners. I think that's what the turners are after.

Prize? No, that idea's dumb. I'm not even gonna say why. Try and figure it out for yourself, and if you can't, I'm sure Novotny will help you, and he will be even more blunt than I have been.

Solarbike: While it's possible people who are competing in the contest are initiating turns, the reality is most competitive players are only in a position to compete for the monthly prize once.

Someone with $400,000ppx can dedicate virtually their entire portfolio to stocks that will move just about every day.

Someone with more than $1,000,000ppx will end up holding stocks that might not move at all in a week.

As a result, the smaller portfolio will show a larger percentage of growth, and have an easier time qualifying for the prize.

For people above $1,000,000ppx, It's really about bragging rights.

Taking away the leaderboard would probably result in many people losing interest in the game.

Replacing the existing leaderboard with one that only measured successful predictions would slow things down considerably, because people would only move on the leaderboard when stocks closed. You'd also need more challenging props to allow people willing to do research to advance faster than the masses.

Reducing the rate at which a stock price can change - no more than x increments in 5 minutes or using the percentage of people holding a stock one way or the other to restrict speed of movement seem like logical ways to maintain a lively pace without the system seeming like a video game.

As it stands, people who are competitive will jump on a stock that changes directions as fast as they possibly can because they expect it to move by a dollar or more in a matter of a couple of minutes.

In the last month or so, twice, we've seen people who noticed lots of stocks were turning between midnight (est) and 2am try to get ahead of the people turning stocks by making trades they expected to happen a little earlier. (a strategy of predicting other players actions) In both times, the result was the turns happened earlier.

Turns that happen just after midnight tend to result in deeper movements because it's easier for people who aren't quite so fanatical about watching their portfolios to notice the change.

One way of compensating for that might be to have the movers board reset a little earlier - perhaps 10pmEST so we can have the wild flurry of activity when more people are awake.

Thank you.