Over the past dozen columns of Grousings, I’ve occasionally, sometimes vehemently, nominated various bits of gadgetry to an ad hoc deathwatch list. In particular I singled out Polaroid photos, home photo printers; disposable batteries; and Sprint’s WiMAX venture Xohm (maybe even Sprint itself, if they aren’t careful). Some of those predictions are necessarily more long-term than others, and some probably wishful thinking. But I think the deathwatch is a worthwhile pursuit if only because it’s fun to be able to say “I told you so!” some day—or to tell others to eat crow (as all Apple fans are now doing after a decade of defending their passion). So this week I’d like to flesh out the list with a few moribund contenders, and then welcome your input for other nominees in the comments section.
Ideally you’ll submit sound reasoning for your predictions and some sort of timetable to make it interesting—however, there’s always a place for good old-fashioned schadenfreude and playa-hating at my table. I’ll cobble it all together and we’ll check back at year’s end to see where we stand.
To get the wrecking ball rolling, in no particular order, launch the gallery for this week’s nominees.
Five amazing, clean technologies that will set us free, in this month's energy-focused issue. Also: how to build a better bomb detector, the robotic toys that are raising your children, a human catapult, the world's smallest arcade, and much more.


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The only thing I question from the list is the tablet pc. I see great potential in this area for the future and it is already popularly used in the school and medical arenas. Also, if you look at the most recent Apple innovations you notice a heavy emphasis on touch interfaces, including the iPhone, iPod touch and new macbooks. Even Windows has some concept systems where you just set your camera/phone on top of the screen and the pictures automatically upload and then you can use your fingers to play around with the pictures. I do understand that right now the tablet pc isn't popular -- it is too expensive a toy (usually at least $2,000) for many to buy when you can buy an equally equipped laptop for less than half that, not to mention that fact that the technology isn't fully developed. If any company really is going to capitalize upon the possibilities, it will be Apple. In fact, if you look at the patent filed for the touch interface for the iPhone it pictures a tablet pc and not a smaller device like an iPhone or iPod. The point it, technology evolves. The mouse once had a rollerball, then a scroll wheel, then a laser... One day we very well might be saying that same thing about the laptop. It once was big and heavy, had a whole separate keyboard, etc. Really, to keep innovating, what are these companies going to offer? They throw in a few extra ghz, a larger hard drive, etc. but there comes a point where we just don't utilize all that stuff and want something more innovative and fun. Maybe the tablet pc does die off for a time, but I fully expect it to be resurrected at some point in the not so distant future.
My only problem with the list is the thought that dial-up internet is a thing of the past. I would say that in my state, due to the large rural population, the majority of people who connect to the internet do so through their modem. While broadband speed is available almost everywhere now, thanks in part to satellite and wireless internet companies, the cost of such internet is either too expensive or not available due to the distance between the provider and customer. Even though dial-up is extremely slow and frustrating, it is very inexpensive. For people who don't use the internet on a daily basis, the price is often the deciding factor. Unless companies expand the availability of DSL or other broadband service to rural customers or the price of satellite service drops, I foresee dial-up internet being around for many more years to come.
I had to laugh when I saw that your example picture was a Handspring PDA. As it happens, you picked the PDA that had the most versatile expansion capabilities of the time, and up to the present. You have a PDA with a phone and camera built in? A phone and camera were two of the most popular modules.
I still use the Handspring Pro with Sprint phone plugin daily. They do what I need to do (which doesn't include mobile web surfing) and can be had cheaply via ebay. In my line of work I'm rough on equipment, and don't want to spend $3-500 when I break something. I picked up a half dozen phone modules for $20 total, and the PDA's are going for about $50. Between Pocket Quicken and a roll-your-own database I really don't need to get on the bleeding edge. So long as I have to crawl under things and carry other heavy stuff around I want a PDA/phone that's either very tough or very cheap to replace. Right now the latter option is the only one available.