
Retreating glaciers. Melting permafrost. Off-kilter bird migrations. Few of these reports are news to anyone following the global warming beat. Yet the first effort to gather thousands of scientific findings into a cohesive narrative of cause and effect has been published in the journal Nature. The study echoes (loudly) the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s conclusion last year that human-induced climate warming is “likely” triggering the changes seen in natural systems since 1970.
The massive endeavor, which was led by Cynthia Rosenzweig of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York, analyzed data sets on 829 physical systems and 28,800 biological systems around the world—ranging from frog mating (happening earlier than usual) to krill biomass (declining) to the snowmelt surge in streams (earlier)—spanning at least 20 years. Ninety percent of these changes, say the authors, are progressing in a way that makes sense with a warming climate.
Even with an overwhelming amount of data, connecting cause and effect can be an intellectual workout. Rosenzweig and her team used two-step logic—they term it “joint attribution”—to arrive at their conclusions. To paraphrase:
Step 1: Show that natural climate variability wouldn't produce these changes. (Done by this study.)
Step 2: Show that the globe's warming can be blamed on human influence. (Done by IPCC report. This holds true, scientists say, even with natural climate variability)
Ergo: The changes are due to human influence.
One-step logic—or “direct attribution”—requires comparing computer models simulating the response of natural systems to climate change with actual observations. If they match, a direct link is made. Several such studies have been done, and they make the same case as this mega-analysis.
According to the scientists penning Nature's accompanying "News and Views," more direct studies will help corroborate joint-attribution studies. They'll also help predict future effects with more precise probabilities so we can make plans to adapt to the changes—and adjust to the bad global warming news that will continue to come down the pike.
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Comments
It's very clear from the article that global warming is our fault, but what we do we can undo. But the obstacle to overcome is that we human don't all agree on what should be done. So we still can't change the weather and it's still mostly up to mother nature to control our climate.
1 out of 2 people found this comment helpfulmy guess is they started this research 3 years ago. What they missed is that for the last 8 years we have had no net warming and added to that we are going into perhaps a 15 year cooling period. Since they have invested warming capital in their research they have to report "its our fault". By the way, Al Gore thinks the Myanmar cyclone is the result of globall warming. Continuing the warming drumbeat is making him richer trading carbon credits. This will go down as the biggest scam of all time.
5 out of 9 people found this comment helpfulApparently jb missed how it's been said a million times in a million different media outlets how 8 of the 10 warmest years on record have been in the last 10 years. That doesn't say "no net warming" or "cooling period" to me.
4 out of 5 people found this comment helpfulWhat record is that you speak of? 8 of the 10 hottest years in Earth's history? That is doubtful.
While I'm glad this research is being done, I question the methodology. It looks like only the climatologists are the only group of scientists that can forgo the scientific method. How could you show natural variation couldn't produce the results? Did they take a slice of the earth removed from human influence? Ridiculous...
3 out of 6 people found this comment helpfulI like Pop Sci but I am saddened to see it follow a politcal fad. The fact of the matter is that there is really no hard science, one way or the other, that there is global warming, man made, natural or otherwise.
Simple logic shows that the earth does have natural cycles: the Ice Ages occurred naturally. The earth was warmer during the time of the dinosaurs. Humans didn't change it in both cases, but the earth changed nevertheless.
Mammoths have even been found frozen in ice with grass in their mouths! This indicates that the Ice Age occured very, very quickly when it happened.
Based on these facts alone it is arrogant to conclude that any climate change is due to humans, and it is also bad science.
5 out of 9 people found this comment helpfulThe PopSci post used the words “likely” in quotes. So, I’m assuming they are only reporting what is in the article, and not making an opinion.
Climate models using recent data are proving the prediction methods of the older models were not accurate. So, science has a long way to go to prove the "Global Warming Armageddon" hypothesis.
Right now, people are using “Global Warming” as a marketing mechanism for business, ideological reasons and for political correctness for short term gains which heightens the emotional response. What is essential and important is that humans continue to become more efficient through science and technology via free market systems. My guess is that more people will buy an electric hybrid to save money from $10 a gallon gasoline, than to protect the planet from “Global Warming” because human nature is ultimately self serving and short sighted.
4 out of 4 people found this comment helpful"Apparently jb missed how it's been said a million times in a million different media outlets how 8 of the 10 warmest years on record have been in the last 10 years. That doesn't say "no net warming" or "cooling period" to me."
"What record is that you speak of? 8 of the 10 hottest years in Earth's history? That is doubtful.
While I'm glad this research is being done, I question the methodology. It looks like only the climatologists are the only group of scientists that can forgo the scientific method. How could you show natural variation couldn't produce the results? Did they take a slice of the earth removed from human influence? Ridiculous.."
wmv715 on record means that in the time that humans have first handedly captured accurate measurements. Not the beginning of time or human exhistance, but in the last 150 years. "8 of the 10 warmest years on record" meaning in the last 150 years... that means that the last 10 years have been conciderably warmer than any decade for 150 years... I would have to agree that a cool down seems unlikely. If not nonexhistant... 90% is a pretty powerful number when coming from scientific studies that are related to global climate. Rather than scientists with no background saying yes or no as an opinion... And may I point out that this no net warming period that you talk of... Global warming may still be occuring because the sun has developed a new and larger sunspot (cooler areas of the sun) so the earth will be taking in less infrared energy thus masking the affects of global warming... yes some cinic will say well then what are we worrying about? the sun is cooler we made the earth warmer its all good!!!. trust me, rellying on somebody or, something else in this case, isn't good for business, and your wellfare... if you want to solve your own problem do it yourself.
0 out of 1 people found this comment helpfulPlease refrain from commenting on grammar... it gets really annoying...
Step 1: Show that natural climate variability wouldn't produce these changes. (Done by this study.)
Um, NO NOT REALLY
Step 2: Show that the globe's warming can be blamed on human influence. (Done by IPCC report. This holds true, scientists say, even with natural climate variability)
Um, NO NOT REALLY
Ergo: The changes are due to human influence.
Um, Maybe, Maybe NOT I'm sure Human Influence has some effect, BUT the amount is still Debatable
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1 out of 1 people found this comment helpfulI think its hard to say weather or not this study does prove anything.
0 out of 0 people found this comment helpfulNotimpressed do you have any scientific data that would show otherwise? I think if we really wanted an answer we would have to have some large scale research trying to prove the opposite, which I doubt many people are interested in doing. Either way the study does show that there is global warming. It is hard to deny it when studies of 28,800 biological systems point to the fact that the overall global climate is warming up. I'm sure that some of this warmth was caused by natural effect but how can we deny our impact on the environment. Studies show that in the past 150 years (since the start of industrialization and thus large consumption of fossil fuels) there has a been a 25% increase in atmospheric green house gases. This in itself shows that us humans have contributed in someway to the warming of our planet.
fromageston... (sorry I can't read your whole name)
Writes:
Notimpressed do you have any scientific data that would show otherwise? I think if we really wanted an answer we would have to have some large scale research trying to prove the opposite, which I doubt many people are interested in doing.
in response, Which side of the argument would you like Scientific Data to "Prove" There's plenty "Studies" to Prove either side, just a lot more money behind the Globull Warming side. You too can google that...
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fromageston...
It is hard to deny it when studies of 28,800 biological systems point to the fact that the overall global climate is warming up. I'm sure that some of this warmth was caused by natural effect but how can we deny our impact on the environment. Studies show that in the past 150 years (since the start of industrialization and thus large consumption of fossil fuels) there has a been a 25% increase in atmospheric green house gases. This in itself shows that us humans have contributed in someway to the warming of our planet.
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Wow 28,800 that's a big number.. Have you actually read any of these studies or how they were conducted
or just someones opinions on the results ..............
I thought so...
"Studies" also show that several times in just the last 1500 years and hundreds of times in history that CO2 levels have been several times higher than they are today. and a funny thing, I have yet to find any story about someone digging up a fossilized SUV Must have been prehistoric cow farts ...oh wait, that's methane, not CO2 sorry
Actually you missed my entire point......
It would be completely illogical to think humans have had no effect.......but it's also illogical (and arrogant) to think humans are THE cause of the current climate trend......
In True Science, the debate seldom concluded
What scares me more that Globull Warming is the Damage that the "enlightened" are going to reap upon the rest of society in the Name of being Green............
Actually, I'm just mad because I haven't figured out a way to make big $$ off this whole AGW thing like my hero Al...
1 out of 1 people found this comment helpful