Federal forecasters issue a prediction for the upcoming storm season, but caution that they could be wrong
Posted 05.23.2008 at 9:41 am
4 Comments
The 2008 Hurricane Season
NOAA
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration announced yesterday that 2008 could be a busy hurricane season. Between twelve and 16 storms may be big enough to earn names, and six to nine should be intense enough to be qualified as hurricanes. And of those, two to five could be major.
But don't shutter the windows and stay indoors just yet. NOAA also acknowledged that this information isn't exactly reliable. Long-term predictions about the weather aren't easy to get right. And several of the scientists involved say it's not a bad idea to just ignore the predictions. Conducting them is interesting from a science perspective, they say, but people shouldn't use the results as a guide.
Check this Orlando Sentinel piece for some good perspective on the issue, and whether NOAA should continue issuing these forecasts at all.
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Since hurricanes tend to wreak havoc on very similar areas in the southeast, I think prediction should always come second to simply building readiness and protection into those areas. Storm-specific building codes, water-resistant materials, stronger dams, and of course continuous early prediction should be very much the norm in those areas by now.
For example, don't use wooden shutters, use vinyl: exteriorsolutions.com/c-35-vinyl-shutters.aspx
Don't rebuild buildings that are destroyed by area weather in the same manner.
Research what causes materials and components to buckle under wind and water pressure and fix the design flaws in the first place.
Pave the streets with ablative (and biodegradable, ideally) coatings that are cheap and easy to replace.
Don’t build too close to a shoreline!
Etc....
The unique thing about the human mind is that it can anticipate problems from the past and work towards preventing them in the future.
Since hurricanes tend to wreak havoc on very similar areas in the southeast, I think prediction should always come second to simply building readiness and protection into those areas. Storm-specific building codes, water-resistant materials, stronger dams, and of course continuous early prediction should be very much the norm in those areas by now.
For example, don't use wooden shutters, use vinyl: www.exteriorsolutions.com/c-35-vinyl-shutters.aspx
Don't rebuild buildings that are destroyed by area weather in the same manner.
Research what causes materials and components to buckle under wind and water pressure and fix the design flaws in the first place.
Pave the streets with ablative (and biodegradable, ideally) coatings that are cheap and easy to replace.
Don’t build too close to a shoreline!
Etc....
The unique thing about the human mind is that it can anticipate problems from the past and work towards preventing them in the future.