TESLA

I'm going long on this, I think they can do it. If they don't there will be plenty of angry rich people for sure. Also, it seems like if they're still having problems in august, definitely goes to short since their goal for next year is 100 a month so they wouldn't magically be able to make 500 in a few months.

I agree with long.

They aren't even makin' the cars themselves, Lotus is making them and Lotus has been makin' cars for 80 years or more.

ejcassel

Thank you for the exact numbers per month.....

Unless there is some weird production problem I dont think this will come out short....

Again the unexpected can always become reality...

Does lotus make the entire car? or just the body and frame? I was under the impression that Tesla has a large part of the drive system and electronics made elsewhere (Taiwan for one) and shipped to lotus to assemble. That takes timely delivery out of the hands of one company and increases the risk that part shortages for one reason or another could slow production. I still like to think this is going to happen but as they are going to have to crank out about 60 cars a month to make the 500 goal any glitch could prove fatal to the prop.

I'm a little more skeptical on this one, but as we have plenty of time to see what is going to happen long is probably the place to be for now.

Whats with the recent drop!!!

Can anyone help here!!!

Is this Manipulation again>??

It's probably because Tesla is being sued by a company that developed a transmission for them. Tesla, in turn, is suing another company for design infringement.

The article is right on the prop page.

As far as making the 500 goes, this might be iffier than it seems. Read this bit by Ze'ev Drori, President and CEO of Tesla Motors:

http://www.teslamotors.com/blog2/?p=57

You'll see this comment in the third paragraph:

"Our key focus with the Roadster will be on gradually ramping up our production in a deliberate and controlled manner reaching a rate of over 100 Roadsters per month early next year."

If they're starting out at 50 per month, then the 500 is a shoe-in... assuming no other problems arise.

But they're building these things now with a "make do" transmission. As Elon Musk wrote (as quoted on http://www.edmunds.com/insideline/do/News/articleId=124260 )

"The transmissions in these early cars will be reliable and safe, though they will not yet meet the original performance spec for acceleration. The upgrade that we will provide at a later date will be free of charge to our existing customers."

So Tesla will be springing for a new transmission for all the early cars built. It would probably be wise to keep the number of tranny-swaps to a minimum and use this time to make sure all the bugs are worked out of the production line.

It would not be surprising if they only make 10 cars a month for awhile, and then start ramping up when the new transmission is available.

And that makes the 500 mark kind of questionable.

It's probably because Tesla is being sued by a company that developed a transmission for them. Tesla, in turn, is suing another company for design infringement.

The article is right on the prop page.

As far as making the 500 goes, this might be iffier than it seems. Read this bit by Ze'ev Drori, President and CEO of Tesla Motors:

http://www.teslamotors.com/blog2/?p=57

You'll see this comment in the third paragraph:

"Our key focus with the Roadster will be on gradually ramping up our production in a deliberate and controlled manner reaching a rate of over 100 Roadsters per month early next year."

If they're starting out at 50 per month, then the 500 is a shoe-in... assuming no other problems arise.

But they're building these things now with a "make do" transmission. As Elon Musk wrote (as quoted on http://www.edmunds.com/insideline/do/News/articleId=124260 )

"The transmissions in these early cars will be reliable and safe, though they will not yet meet the original performance spec for acceleration. The upgrade that we will provide at a later date will be free of charge to our existing customers."

So Tesla will be springing for a new transmission for all the early cars built. It would probably be wise to keep the number of tranny-swaps to a minimum and use this time to make sure all the bugs are worked out of the production line.

It would not be surprising if they only make 10 cars a month for awhile, and then start ramping up when the new transmission is available.

And that makes the 500 mark kind of questionable.

Vulgarian, what are the odds like for this to go short?

-Chris

Peace through kinetic solutions

I'm waiting on more information. (And sorry for the double post above, don't know what happened there.)

Here's my thinking... if they're starting out with a less-than-perfect product right now, they're not going to want to dump a whole lot of money into replacing all those transmissions, and they're not going to want to generate all the ill-will that goes with the inconvenience.

So what would happen if they're only building 5 or 10 a month now, with the idea of really starting to ramp up in September or so?

They could very well make less than 500 this year, that's what.

So I'm keeping my eye out for any kind of statement on current production numbers, just to get a better idea.

Odds? I'd say about 50-50 right now. Business sense says it wouldn't be a good idea for a start-up company to saddle itself with hundreds of thousands of dollars of service costs by knowingly churning out a large number of product you're going to have to fix.

But pressure to get it the Roadster on the street may be so great that Tesla is willing to do that.

still, everybody seems to really really think it's gonna happen, prices are jumping up oddly enough overallsies

I just have to say thank you to all the people like vulgarian who help others (like me) choose there stocks.
Thanks!
Rock on 'Stones'

Have you seen the Rolling Stones lately? They even look old. Soon, they really will be the Rolling Stones, rolling up on stage in their wheelchairs...

On the other hand, it is cool they are still performing at their age.

Read this:

http://www.edmunds.com/insideline/do/News/articleId=126368

Doesn't this say that they're expecting to make about 40 cars by September? Which would mean 500 by years end is definitely not going to happen.

Thoughts?

Short, short, short!

Peace through kinetic solutions

Absolutely short. The Edmunds article has this line: "'This new powertrain configuration is planned to be inserted into the production schedule in September, at about the 40th car,' the company said. 'All cars produced prior to this switch-over will be upgraded free of charge.'"

Since Tesla has already said they're working toward "ramping up to 100 cars per month", there's no way they'll make 500 this year.

But if you're looking for something that makes it clearer, check out http://www.teslamotors.com/blog2/

"In the past 2 months, we have moved more slowly than our planned pace of 1 car per week. At the time of this writing, we are preparing to put cars number 6 and 7 on the line," is one notable quote. Another interesting bit is the production table in the middle of the page that indicates the 500th vehicle will not be produced until February/March, 2009...

Due to past performance they are likely to not make projections. Leopards don't change spots, but Electric cars are likely to be the future sooner than later, just not this company yet.

Check out the latest production forecast from Tesla motors on their website:

http://www.teslamotors.com/blog2/?p=62

"Already 9 production Roadsters have arrived in California, another 3 arrive this weekend, and they will keep arriving at the rate of 4 per week (except for the scheduled factory shut down in the last two weeks of August). In fact, currently there are 27 Roadsters in various stages of assembly. In large measure we deliberately limit the production until we install our own born and bred final transmission by mid-September, at which time production will start to ramp up leading toward a monthly rate of over 100 cars in December."

12 by this weekend, 4 per week after that until September (except for two weeks in august) which make another 20, then ramping up to 100 per month in December. That makes a total of 382 EVEN IT THEY STARTED MAKING 100 A MONTH IN MID SEPTEMBER!!! But they aren't, they're going to "ramp up" to 100 a month.

This looks very very short.