PS3UNITS

I agree with you i was surprise by the early pop end time also. It says right in the description that it took the ps2 eight years to sell 140 mil, the ps3 was release when? winter 2006? so by January 2010 you are looking at only 4 years to beat the number.

Plus does it have to beat the 140 mil that is the total when the prop was release or the total ps2s sold by 2010 because its still selling well. i don't see the ps3 selling 140 mil in 4 years and i doubt it will sell enough to over come the increasing lead ps2 has in total sales.

Seems like whoever wrote the thing saw the 150M prediction, thought it would make a good prop and then just assigned an arbitrary date that wasn't short term and wasn't long term (ie the 4+ years it will take to get to 150M).

-NapkinG-

Well, it seems reasonable that the ps3 can reach the ps2 mark around the time that the ps2 actually set the mark. Although the wii may have more players, its mostly new players to the gaming market. As for the console wars, most people, these days, buy either both the ps3/box and/or either with the wii (cause so cheap). I bet, with my PoPs, that when the ps3 drops to about 300-200$ a pop, you start to see a new b2 plane, flying off like crazy bombing the box into submission.

But hey, those are just my $0.02; what's yours?

-If it isn't broken, fix it until it is.

Yeah, the PS3 has followed a very similar sales path as the PS2 did over its first 1.5 years [1]. I have no doubt that SONY can pitch enough to gain the same sales. Although I wonder if a price cut is in their scope. They are already loosing ~$200+ a unit as it costs more than they are selling it for. So they'll need to find some way to significantly cut the production cost of the systems or be willing to take an even bigger hit to the bottom line. I cannot see a $200 PS3 unit.

There is no way that the (X)box is going to roll over and play dead if there's a PS3 price cut. You could either expect their own price cut (or feature boost as we've already seen) to keep pace with the PS3.

[1] http://vgchartz.com/hwlaunch.php?cons1=PS2&reg1=All&cons2=PS3&reg2=All&cons3=PS&reg3=All&weeks=100
Man, do I love vgchartz.com. (while I don't take the exact numbers there as fact, the general trends on their charts are nice).

-NapkinG-

This is confusing. When I initially read it, I went long and assumed that they meant that the PS3 will outsell the PS2 on a *monthly* basis by the end of 2009, which is almost guaranteed.

However, as I read it now, the question is whether the PS3 will overtake the PS2 in total lifetime sales by the end of 2009. Also, the 140M mark is mentioned, but the PS2 is still selling quite well. As per the NPD group, last month the ps2 sold 140k units while the PS3 sold 185k.

Either I am missing the boat, or those that are going long on this stock are missing the boat or think that the PS3 can jump from ~200k in sales a month to ~10M a month.

Thoughts?

A fool and their money are soon parted. Just going to make more when it starts its fall when players start wising up.

from my understanding of the charts on vgchartz, i would say that this prop should be going down . PS3 might have a chance at beating the xbox, but the wii has pulled away and will continue at a steady rate. Unless Sony has something up their sleeves, the rate of ps3 units sell will be less than both the xbox and the wii. Remember that the prop only pays if the ps3 beats the xbox and the wii.

I think you got the props confused, buddy. You described PS3WINS but this is the PS3UNITS thread.

WAHOOO! ALL YOU SONY FANS START CLAPPING YOUR HANDS! NEWS OUT TODAY THAT PS3 SALES HAVE DOUBLED OVER LAST YEAR!

Except... well... for this prop to pay off, sales will have to increase FIFTY-FOLD, RIGHT NOW or it's toast.

There's some lingering doubt about if the prop refers to gross lifetime sales of the PS3 outstripping PS2, or monthly sales. For a very clear understanding of which it refers to, I suggest you read the prop. Every word of it is about gross lifetime sales of PS2, and gross lifetime predicted sales for the PS3. The "Related Links" that are a permanent part of the prop are about total lifetime sales. There is no question about what this prop is addressing. Monthly sales have nothing to do with it (except for the fact that they all add up to make the gross lifetime sales...)

So Sony fans celebrated today's sales figures by running the stock up 1.75. But the figures show that the PS3 sold only 190,000 units last month.

190,000 will not get a long payout on this prop. Even if sales instantly increased to 1,000,000 per month, that would still give less than 30 million PS3's sold by the end of next year. If sales increase RIGHT NOW to 10,000,000 per month, it would still be close. Assuming there are about 20 million sold so far (that's being generous, since only 13 million had been sold by March of this year), and they sold 10,000,000 per month for the next 13 months, that would JUST make 150,000,000.

This is an obvious, screaming short! Short! SHORT!

Also Taylor has said it would be total sales in another thread

There you go. Taylor said it had to be total sales, and Sony would need to sell 10,000,000 PS3's a month to make this prop pay long. Sheesh!

Hmmm I made the same conclusion, and shorted 1000 shares. Anyone wanna explain why I have lost $4000 on this prop??? If it wasn't for the fact I am 100% sure it will fail, I would sell out now to cut my losses.

You lost $4000 because the price went up $4 per share. Why is the price going up? Wave-riders trying to make a buck before this prop becomes truly relevant. Just look at the price bounce back and forth at the start of November.

The fact that this prop is trading above $50 per share is a sad sad statement for this market.

-NapkinG-