Prop for Wednesday, November 19

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AIDSCURE
German scientists claim AIDS cure

Will scientists announce that they’ve developed a gene-therapy AIDS cure by 2018?

When a 42-year-old man in Berlin developed leukemia, he underwent a bone marrow transplant to treat the disease. The man, who was also battling AIDS at the time, was given bone marrow cells from someone who’s genetically resistant to most strains of HIV. Now, two years later, it appears that the standard transplant cured the man’s AIDS – the virus hasn’t been detectable in his blood for more than 600 days. But the transplant isn’t viable for most patients – it kills 30 percent of them, and is only given to people with late-stage cancer. Instead, doctors hope to develop gene therapy that will render patients immune to the deadly virus. However, gene therapy faces many challenges, like the procedure’s high costs and complications. Will scientists overcome these problems by 2018 and develop a gene-therapy AIDS cure?

This proposition will pay off at POP$100 per share if a scientist announces, by January 1, 2018 by 3 p.m. EST., that they’ve developed a gene-therapy AIDS cure.

5 Comments

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frostyfam

11/18/08 at 11:28 am

Carrying the flag that props should not close on Jan 1st.
Does the announcement need to have independent verification?

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chefboiaarni

11/18/08 at 12:48 pm

Questions:

What if gene therapy for AIDS turns out to be a viable treatment, but not a cure? Obviously AIDS patients will see that as a success, but will we as prop gamblers?

What if a miracle drug comes out that cures AIDS, but is unrelated to gene therapy? Again, AIDS patients of the world will rejoice. But if a drug like that comes out, 3 years from now, and gene therapy treatment is abandoned due to costs and lack of need, are we going to ride a 6 year short? I'm not saying this is a bad thing, I just want to make sure this is what we are agreeing to.

I don't have a huge problem with this Jan. 1 prop, because it's 2018. As long as we don't stack up 5+ props on the same date, the occasional Jan. 1 is fine. But this is a 9 year prop, not a 10 year prop, right? Otherwise, the date should be 2019. Just checking.....

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aaronmrosen

from Lexington, KY

11/18/08 at 3:16 pm

I agree with Chef. If a cure came through that had nothing to do with Gene Therapy, would this be a short? It needs specifics.

Also, does a cure have to be 100% accurate? Say they were to test the cure on 1000 people and 999 were cured but the last one wasn't?

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traderboi

from Brooklyn, NY

11/18/08 at 3:42 pm

I think it reads better like this: This proposition will pay off at POP$100 per share if by January 1, 2018 by 3 p.m. EST., a scientist announces that they’ve developed a gene-therapy AIDS cure.

Also do scientists "announce" cures, or do they announce various stages of testing/implementation?

I think the point in which it's considered a cure should be clarified (lab tests, human tests, or publicly available)

Also I may not be speaking for everyone here, but I do think that if you don't wanna keep up the 3-prop-per-week rate while you are on vacation, we will understand.

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taylorhengen

from New York, New York

11/19/08 at 11:47 am

Wow-- great points. These did need clarification. The new payout criteria is below. Also-- Traderboi, thanks! I'll keep doing the props but I may be slow on email responses (but I have everyone's emails and will get to them, I promise).

Thanks for your careful review of this prop!

This proposition will pay off at POP$100 per share if a scientist announces, by January 4, 2018 by 3 p.m. EST, that they’ve developed a gene-therapy AIDS cure (proven effective on at least 50% of human test subjects).

Notes: This prop will only pay short if a gene-therapy AIDS cure is not announced by its closeout date. If another (non- gene therapy) cure is announced before the closeout date, the prop will not short because of it.