Sorry I didn't post the last couple of props for review, guys-- I got spam-blocked by our own web site (I now totally relate to what some of you have experienced).
Review away!
xot.
IPO: PORKFLU
"Will the swine flu epidemic infect 100 Americans?"
As of April 26th, 2009, 20 cases of swine flu infection have been confirmed in the United States. The disease began in Mexico, and has quickly spread to the US. The virus, an H1N1 strain, has greatly troubled public health officials who worry that this might be the beginning of a new flu pandemic. Even though flu season is ending in the northern hemisphere, similarities between this flu strain and previous pandemic flu strains, as well as the fear that this virus might hybridize with the increasingly common drug-resistant flu strains found in the US, have health officials around the globe alarmed. The last major flu pandemic, which struck in 1977, was also an H1N1 virus, as was the 1918/1919 flu that, in 10 months, killed more people than all the wars of the 20th century and HIV combined.
This prop will pay out POP$100 if 100 Americans test positive for swine flu by before June 1st, 2009. This prop can be checked at http://www.cdc.gov/swineflu/investigation.htm.
Related Links:
http://www.cdc.gov/swineflu/?s_cid=swineFlu_outbreak_internal_001
http://www.who.int/csr/disease/swineflu/en/index.html
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/27/health/27questions.html
10 Comments
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from New York, New York
bump
It's already up to 40 cases overnight (according to CDC site). I think 100 may be reached before this prop is even public...
Well, I find it all a bit "too real." Some people can and probably will die, and I am not sure that it is really a good topic for any "game" that our activity here mostly is after all. I think that it can close "long" but I feel uneasy to "play" this way.
I like the prop because it is real and i do agree that the 100 level is low, we could be there really soon.
But at the same time i do not know a good number to use, 200? 500?
there that is my 2 cents
I would also change epidemic to pandemic because that is what every one is calling it now. unless you want to keep epidemic because we are only talking about the US
and we have to change the 100 number, we are up to 50 cases as of this morning so we could be at 100 by tomorrow
from alpha, il
OMG LOL-you got spam blocked, it totally sucks i was blocked for a month.
I like the the short time frame, as for the thought of should we bet on this: I'm of the opinion that we aren't bet on deaths, just cases and how fast it spreads. Which is real science. As for the number of cases (100); if it needs changing before posting because it has past/to close to 100. I think 200-300 sounds reasonable.
When life gives you to many Apple IPO's make Apple sauce, now where did I put that blender?
With 64 confirmed cases and already talk of hundreds of NYC schoolkids out sick, I have a feeling you'll never be able to set the "push" level appropriately to make this prop sporting. Without some outside expert offering a reasonable guess, which I imagine won't come for some time, in my humble opinion the release of this prop is immature.
Have to say I do share the uneasy feeling of betting on misfortune and death - on the same level of unseemliness as the Oprey death prop.
I also agree that the number is too small and/or the time frame is too long to make this prop a gamble. It seems like an easy long as currently stated.
As to the moral dilemma, I suggest that those with objections not bet on this prop. And I don't mean that in a sarcastic manner. You should tell Taylor and co. that this prop bothers you and then not touch it with a 10 foot pole. I personally do not object to it, but I understand why some people would.
from Smoky Lake, AB
Agree the 100 is way too small.It's a gimme. After all we are talking confirmed cases, not deaths as some are implying by the moral comments. Rather than change the number make it confirmations in New York city, even then they were(nearly) half way there this morning
I like the idea of the prop, it's a current issue(even scientific) that is worth while following a little more closely than I probably would other wise!
from New York, New York
We're changing the number from 100 to 500-- this thing has grown since Monday!
Thanks for the feedback :-)
Taylor