JATROPHA

This one looks like it has a good shot at happening.

Let's follow this one from the partnership. BP and D1 are in a joint venture to develop jatropha as a fuel source. We know what BP brings to the joint effort... money. What does D1 bring to it?

Everything else.

"Under the terms of the agreement, BP and D1 Oils intend to invest around $160 million over the next five years. D1 Oils will contribute into the joint venture their 172,000 hectares of existing plantations in India, Southern Africa and South East Asia and the joint venture will have exclusive access to the elite jatropha seedlings produced through D1 Oils’ plant science programme."

http://www.bp.com/genericarticle.do?categoryId=2012968&contentId=7034453

Okay, so what? D1 is bringing their plantations into the joint venture. Big deal.

But that means any exports D1 makes of jatropha oil is ALSO an export by BP.
So, to meet the prop's requirements, any export of jatropha by D1 will also, by definition of the join venture, be an export by BP.

This is important because "D1-BP Fuel Crops India, a joint venture between the UK-based D1 Oils Plc and British Petroleum, expects to extract first batches of bio-diesel this year from its jatropha plantations in the North-East."

http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/2008/02/07/stories/2008020750371100.htm

Since jatropha grows on wastelands, is drought resistant, and is being grown in the Northeast of India (where the monsoons don't flood the place), it's pretty likely they will have a crop for extracting the oil.

But the next stage is refining it into biodiesel. Where will that happen? Well if you read that article on thehindubusinessline.com you'll see this: "A refinery too, would come up there two years from now to process the extracted oil from the preliminary plants."

They'll have a refinery in two years. So where will they refine the oil from this year's crop?

At D1's biofuel refinery, most likely. And where is that? In England.

http://www.d1plc.com/news.php?article=46

India doesn't have a reliable biodiesel refinery structure.

http://www.ecoearth.info/shared/reader/welcome.aspx?linkid=85853

And if you read the D1 refinery article cited above, you'll see that D1 is very optimistic about tanking biofuels into their England refinery. That's where it's going to go.

So this is probably a long. The first shipment of Jatropha to hit D1's England refinery will satisfy this prop.