HYBRID -- Not likely

IMHO, HYBRID is unlikely to pay out long.

The payout criteria are:

"This proposition will pay off at POP$100 per share if more than 40 percent of vehicles sold in the U.S. in 2015 are non-fleet-operated hybrid vehicles (gasoline-powered internal-combustion engines assisted by an integrated or supplemental electric motor)."

Let's assume, for the moment, that this proposition actually means what it says.

Hybrids combining diesel engines, or natural gas engines, or ethanol engines, or biodiesel engines with an electric motor won't qualify.

Hybrids combining any type of engine with a pneumatic or hydraulic motor won't qualify. (These types of hybrids are already being marketed).

All-electric vehicles won't qualify. Consider how much better batteries are getting & consider the Tesla, and other all-electric cars now being marketed. Every all-electric car sold, is one less hybrid car being sold.

Hydrogen fuel-cell powered vehicles won't qualify.

Diesel powered cars account for half of the sales in Europe. These diesel cars already get as good, or better mileage as hybrids. (Especially on the open road, where hybrids don't do much better than ordinary gasoline engines.) Diesel cars will make inroads in the U.S. quickly -- as soon as the diesel fuel is cleaned up.

It's likely that various alternatives to the traditional gasoline-engine powered vehicles will account for more than 40% of the market by 2015 -- but, it's unlikely that gasoline-engine/electric motor hybrids will do so.

In addition -- if the proposition pays out according to how it's actually written -- the fleet-operated vehicles count in the denominator but not in the numerator. The more fleet-operated vehicles sold, the less likely that gasoline engine/electric hybrids will account for 40% of the total vehicles sold -- when they don't count if sold to fleets.