HOTAIR

There is no chance in my opinion of this happneng....

Apple might alter the product.. but I dont think that would be considered a pull....

This notebook will easilyu last till the end of the year, though might undergo changes...

I wwould short this..

Any ideas?

I'm not sold on the idea that this is a sure short. collin0622, please define "stunning debut". I'm sure that you're probably better informed on this topic than I am, but every review I've read has been negative, or mixed at best.

And rahulr0609, the payout criteria reads "This proposition will payout if Apple CHANGES THE DESIGN of the Macbook Air OR pulls it from its lineup altogether on or before November 31, 2008." I agree that it's very unlikely that the Macbook Air will be pulled from the lineup, but as you yourself stated "Apple might alter the product...", and "[The MacBook] might undergo changes...". You might want to reread that prop.

Given the feedback that I've read, I'm sure that there are things that Apple would like to change about this product. The question(s) are: 1)How difficult are these changes to make? 2)Are the changes worth making? and 3)Is this a realistic timeframe for the changes to be made?

I don't have the answers to these questions, or even a well-informed opinion, but I'm sure someone out there does, and I'd love to hear their thoughts.

Will Apple pull the MacBook? Almost certainly not. Will Apple make some improvements and release a new version in the next 10 months? Maybe, just maybe.

I think that people will wait just a little bit longer for the next slim notebook. There seems to be a feeling that the correct technology and price is right around the corner. A very hesitant long...

I'm long on this, because I feel that changing the design is inclusive of changing any of the components. Since this is a new entry, it is very likely that they may change the RAM amount, or add a cheaper SSD drive. Looks like a no-brainer to me.

Bill....

Just reread the prop...

thanks for pointing out the changes part.... After reading that I could say it MIGHT be a long....

Again, I would like to say that the changes with the Air in my opinion will be more software based such as a new app or something.. the prop as you mentioned talked about DESIGN changes, not so much in software

Not really any change on the design, atleast not in the time required to satisft the IPO......

Any thoughts?

And thank you, rahulr0609, for reminding me that if Apple does indeed make changes they would be more likely to involve software, etc. Taking this into consideration, I'm switching my position from long to short, despite the stock's upward swing today.

The design to the air is very delicate it cannot be easily changed with out affecting some aspect due to the fact that it has been cramed into a tiny space. For example intel had to make a proccesor specialy desinged to be smaller. The only changes I see happening would be software.

OK guys they are advertiseing this thing on the SuperBowl, SELL SHORT!

This is a long buy. Talk about a friggin flop of a product. It caters to the "compact crowd" in California who want cell phones the size of credit cards and computers that won't ruin the lines of their designer computer bags.

GAAAAAAK!!!

This from the prop page:

"There's no optical drive and only one USB port, so the weight you save by carrying it may be offset by all the peripherals you have to pack. You can't replace the battery yourself, or upgrade to a bigger hard drive. And at $1,800, it's an expensive second machine."

This product would only appeal to a tiny, tiny market. People who use their computer for social networking, email, and downloading movies. Only one USB port? Whatta piece a crap. And you can't even replace your own battery!

I think Jobs pushed this through because he has a mistress who thought it would be cute. I bet it comes in pink for a few dollars more. YAK! This is a useless piece of crap and will die or be modified very quickly.

This thread has been moved to the old forum here:

http://ppx.popsci.com/forum-archives/showthread.php?t=1533

Please post any additional comments there.

Vulgraian.......

There are many products if not all of them that apple makes, one cannot change the battery....

Also as many have noticed apple doesnt always cell just because of functionality, but mostly due the style factor...

To people buying products in this category some peripherals and size is important, but so is style...

These people are paying nearly $2k and if it looks ugly they arent going to buy.....

Apart from the tiny peripheral that are WIRED as u may have noticed things are going WIRELESS including electricity...

Apple has bet on the next paradime shift into the wireless age.....

I still think this is a short.....

P.S: Bill thank you for playing the prop and not the people...

dabuttminster, who has given you the authority or even asked you to post all over the place that these threads have been "moved"? You didn't use the word "official" here but you have other places. All you're doing is creating more confusion.

You are quite right that I haven't been given any official authority. However, since PopSci staff are not addressing this problem of the new forums being ugly and less usable, I have taken it upon myself to voluntarily direct traffic back to the old forums, which still work.

I know of no reason why this should not be done. I respectfully ask that all of you help me with this transition by not posting new content in these forums. If you disagree, I'd like to know why you want to keep using these nasty forums when we can just as easily use the old ones.

Again, the official link to this thread is:

http://ppx.popsci.com/forum-archives/showthread.php?t=1533

Please support the transition to the old forums by making any further posts there.

Thanks.

rahulr0609, you don't make a single convincing argument.

If the MacAir doesn't sell well enough to justify the investment, Apple will pull or modify the the line. "Style" be damned.

And yes, people buy items for "style", which is what I meant when I wrote about people who don't want to ruin the lines on their custom computer bags. These are people who don't care if their computer has a sub-par hard drive, no optical drive, and only one USB. They don't really use their computer for much, so it doesn't matter if the thing's a piece of crap.

So what if it can do stuff "wirelessly"? Other than connecting to the net, the "wireless" function needs another, fully functional computer so MacAir can use it's disc drive

And no, it cannot get it's electricity wirelessly, and if you're referring to the wireless electric transmission systems in the last issue of PopSci, read up on them. None of them are really that good.

And it's "paradigm", not "paradime".

dabuttminster, first of all, sorry about the tone of my last post. I agree that the former forums were much more user-friendly and easier on the eyes. I guess I'm just frustrated that in the beginning this was a fun, interesting, and relatively simple way to pass some time. I'd check my portfolio, browse the forums, and maybe check out ppxbroker. Now I have to jump through hoops just to access my portfolio, and browsing through both forums for new posts has become pretty time-consuming activity. I guess that ideally, everyone would post in the new forums and ppx admins would re-configure the new forums to conform to what seems to be an general consensus on what needs to be changed. But, of course we all know how much interest the admins seem to show in what we want and need from this exchange. I don't know, whatever. The joy is being sucked out of this game.

As for migrating back to the old exchange... no, that's a bad idea. There are now 22,000 participants, and some newbies will want to check the forums from the regular link. They'll come here, not to the archive forum.

If all the old hands congregate at the archives, the newbies will not know to go there. Meanwhile, the old hands will bicker, argue, and make up, over and over, without any new perspectives.

We can bicker, argue, and make up in a new format, and include the new members too. I don't think using the archive forum is a good idea. Go with the flow... this forum can work, and we can hear some new voices.

Vulgarian....

You still do not get your point across ina convincing way ......

I do not think after spending couple hundred million to design and make this product, Apple is going to structurally change anything....

Especially anytihng major such as adding more ports and a drive ebcause lets face it, it just wont fit....

I would also like to reinterate my point about the software aspect of the Air and how tht would play a big role and modification to the Air....

This does not mean obviously that Apple would not change the design eventually, but in the short term that is specified in this prop I dont not think this is going to happen.....

About the STYLE factor, it plays a bigger role than you might think and people who buy ultraPORTABLES are people on the MOVE... These people are constantly at airports or major hotspots where they have easy connection to the internet......

About the disc drive, the target consumer of Apple would barely need the drive and even if they did, they could carry and auxilary 1 which is not so big.....

Apple has bet of the wireless PARADIGM and think more people over the next year or 2 anre going to start seeing more and more things that were wired go wireless or bluetooth....

Vulgarian....

You still do not get your point across ina convincing way ......

I do not think after spending couple hundred million to design and make this product, Apple is going to structurally change anything....

Especially anytihng major such as adding more ports and a drive ebcause lets face it, it just wont fit....

I would also like to reinterate my point about the software aspect of the Air and how tht would play a big role and modification to the Air....

This does not mean obviously that Apple would not change the design eventually, but in the short term that is specified in this prop I dont not think this is going to happen.....

About the STYLE factor, it plays a bigger role than you might think and people who buy ultraPORTABLES are people on the MOVE... These people are constantly at airports or major hotspots where they have easy connection to the internet......

About the disc drive, the target consumer of Apple would barely need the drive and even if they did, they could carry and auxilary 1 which is not so big.....

Apple has bet of the wireless PARADIGM and think more people over the next year or 2 anre going to start seeing more and more things that were wired go wireless or bluetooth....

Hi Vulgarian,

I believe that with a few volunteers, we can make sure that new users find the old forums.

The most important thing is that every prop being discussed, new or old, must have a link in the new forum to the relevant thread on the old forum.

Secondly, any important information about a prop in the new forum must be copied/pasted to the old forum.

Yes, that takes some work! I've been doing it by myself, but if several people participate, it wouldn't be bad at all.

Certainly if we just abandon the new forum, no one will ever find us on the old forum. That is not what I am proposing. I want to keep the new forum up-to-date with links so that any new user searching for information will quickly find a link to the relevant information on the old forum.

These are the advantages I see to this transition:

1) New users can easily find the wealth of research (much of it done by you, I might add) on the old forums.

2) We can continue to use the prettier interface, and the better features of the old forum

3) We can put pressure on PopSci staff to come up with a better long-term solution.

The current situation, with different people using different forums is disgraceful. I believe that with a little community effort, we can vastly improve the situation.

Obviously, only PopSci staff can enforce a change, but my impression is that the majority of users are migrating to the old forums anyway. I just think it would be better for everyone if we are all on the same page.

I respectfully ask that you reconsider! Thanks.

In keeping with my mission, the equivalent thread for HOTAIR on the old forum is here:

http://ppx.popsci.com/forum-archives/showthread.php?t=1533

Please make any additional posts regarding this proposition there!

I don't think Apple was thinking this laptop would be a mass market item. I think this computer would be great for someone who wants a laptop as a secondary computer to do some work while sitting on the couch or on an airplane because it's small and light. Then later they get home and store their files on the Apple time warp (the name of the 500GB/1TB storage server eludes me). I'm sure the Apple fanboys who have $1800 or $3100 for the better version will gladly pay to get it.

Thanks for the insightful comment pso7025. It has been copied to the HOTAIR thread on the old forum:

http://ppx.popsci.com/forum-archives/showthread.php?t=1533

Please support the transition to the old (nicer) forum by making any additional posts regarding this proposition there!

Thanks.

Can we just assume you're going to copy over all the posts from here to the old forum? You don't need to tell us...

I think this one is going to be a short, Apple has invested alot in this product and has a history of ocasionally releasing machines with limited functionality that people really like (the bondi blue Imac for example didn't have a floppy drive remember) I think this is gonna be hot with people who just want a portable internet terminal to do stuff that the Iphone is too small for.

And never underestimate the cool factor with apple products, remember the g4 cube, the newton and the original IPOD

Half a bee, philosophically, must ipso-facto, half not be.

JJACKHINX, you have half a point.

Sure this is "going to be hot with people who want a portable internet terminal to do stuff the Iphone is too small for". But how much of the market is going to drop 2K for an oversized cell phone... that can't make phone calls (unless you count VOIP... hope you're not using your USB for anything else! Gotta plug in the headset!).

Read the review at http://www.appleinsider.com/articles/08/02/04/macbook_air_hdd_model_an_in_depth_review.html

This is a very, very pro-Apple website, and they struggled to find good things to say about the Air. It's chock full of qualifiers like "Besides it's shortcomings", "In spite of the Air's lack of", "This shortfall is made up for by," etc.

And in spite of it's titatnium-like appearance, the damned thing dimples and flexes, because the shell is plastic.

Yuck. It's got the panache of an oversized makeup case and the useability of a 2004 PC... without the USB's, disc drive, or hard drive space.

Oh too quickly it will be seen... anyone using an Air is using a computer with below-par computing ability. Below-par durability. Below-par useability.

And it will be the sign of someone who a.) doesn't use their laptop for "serious" work, b.) is too much of a wheenie to carry a "heavy" laptop with them, and c.) is someone who thinks style is a bigger concern than functionality.

Carrying an Air will be a bigger "style" faux pas than Speedos on a 300 pound man. It will be the hallmark of the lazy, the stupid, and the style-over-results crowd.

Vulgarian.....

Get your facts straight... because one cannot compare a Air to other kinds of notebook such as 17" multimedia PC's ...

Maybe you should try comparing it to other Ultraportables because thats what its meant for...... and in that case its performance is on par, if not better than most ultraportables in the market. ... I will admit the lack of ports is a huge draw back, but you cannot just keep strectching that 1 point for ever....

Also what do you consider to "serious" work because as far as i am concerned, a business man is not going to be playing a heavy computing power using game..... They usually need it to run presentation, watch movies or do some fun stuff and trsut me the mac software lets you do a lot of fun stuff.....

About the style and the "too weak to carry a heavy notebook", i think frequesnt traveelers dont want to be carring a 7 pound or 17" notebook around with them when they are travelling every other weekk.....

I think, if people look at the market at which apple is aiming, they will se why they dsignedthe air the way they did...

Your problem is that you are comparing the Air to a different calss of notebooks such as desktop replacement....

If ou payed attention in math class, "you cant add unlike terms"....

Rephrasing this in terms of the prop.

I don't think apple is going to mod this or drop this product anytime soon. whether it sells or not is irrelevant.

to anyone listening at apple.

I want an Iphone with three g capability, a USB port, a laser projected keyboard and a clamshell style touchscreen that opens to double the size of the current iphone. I also want it to act as a video IPOD and cameraphone.

i want it for less than a grand

I want it to have 12 hrs of battery life (replaceable)

I want it to have wifi and I want it to weigh under 18 ounces

the IPHONE is almost the magical convergent device.

Everyone seems to be saying we should short this prop on two points.. 1.) that it's a light, easy "stylish" computer, and 2.) that Apple put a lot of work and money into it and won't back down.

You're all ignoring the fact that all Apple has to do is MODIFY this product by Nov 31 and the proposition pays out $100.

Read the reviews. Lots of positive stuff about the looks... but the reception has been tepid at best. The performance has been rated "okay" for the most part. And with no optical drive you cannot install software from a disc.

I won't go into the USB issue again... only one. Phhht.

There is indeed a target market for this product, but it is a very, very small market.

And on an interesting note, Apple has pulled a bunch of "work around" information from it's help site.

http://www.macnn.com/articles/08/02/04/apple.pulls.air.docs/

These are all issues that would affect the business traveler. I can't help thinking they're worries the mention of these problems might hurt sales.

This product is a dog and I'm sure it will have a short life. But in the meantime... expect some sort of modification to address at least one of it's many shortcomings.

Vulgarian.......

You may have a partial point here at best.......

MY question to you is, WHAT AND HOW will apple change anything without changing the external appearence...

Everything is already shrinked to the max and I dobt there will be any space for any design changes.....

As i said at he beginning of this thread, I think that Apple will go with more SOFTWARE based changes for atleast 1 year. I dont think software based changes counts as a modification according to this prop....

This is not to say that they will not eventually redisign the product, I just dont think they will do in the IPO's alloted time frame....

Also, they might release some new accesories because I think changing design or adding hardware in this package thats already bursting at its seems seems impossible....

This is not to undermine Apples ingenuity, for they always have a way to surprise. I just think for the time being the changes are going to be more software based......

rahulr0609...

The fact that so much is jammed into so small a space in the Air might make modifications difficult... if they insist on sticking with a profile that will fit in a manila envelope.

(The manila envelope thing seems to have been Apple's goal from the start. The tapered edges, the thin profile, the very-rounded corners... I think they started with the shape and then said "put a computer in it".)

But this brings up another question. One of the issues on

http://www.macnn.com/articles/08/02/04/apple.pulls.air.docs/

was overheating. "In the event of overheating, the MacBook Air is designed to reduce the clock speed of the processors, which can be remedied by using the Air on a cooling pad to dissipate the heat."

So when it gets warm, it slows down. And since the Air has so little space for airflow, I would suspect this to be a common problem. The reviewers haven't noted it... yet... but the Air hasn't been out very long, either.

Overheating will seriously reduce a computer's life. An overheating issue would surely cause serious expenses in warranty claims.

Apple might have priced the Air so high simply BECAUSE they expected warranty issues. Just think... it has almost the same hardware as a Macbook... without an optical drive, USB's, etc. And Macbooks are known to get hot!

So for a slower CPU (to keep the heat down, but also a cheaper unit), no optical drive (reducing size and heat, but also cheaper), lower voltage (reducing heat, but also cheaper) and a thin profile... you pay $700 more! This is to cover the warranty risk Apple faces on this product.

Now I understand why they wanted to make a computer that would fit in a manila envelope. This product is expected to have a high failure rate and a high warranty cost for Apple. Sending it back in a manila envelope would surely save on the shipping of returns.

One review I read (sorry I can't find the link) said it was the perfect LAPtop because after using it for hours, it didn't heat up like a normal laptop would so you could comfortably have it on your lap.

pso725,,, with that one comment I think you have led me to the truth...

Nope, Apple cannot make any hardware modifications to the Air. They're using a a new processor/chipset that they rushed into the market just to... create the first computer that would fit into a manila envelope.

The sheer dumbness of the manila-envelope goal astounds me.

Here's the deal... Apple pushed for an early release on a processor (the thing that makes the most heat, and consumes most of the power) that wasn't due out until the middle of this year. The processor and chipset are smaller, consume less power, and create less heat than those used in standard Mac notebooks.

http://www.appleinsider.com/articles/08/01/17/macbook_airs_processor_riddle_solved.html

But smaller circuitry requires cooler operating temperatures. Higher temperatures increase electrical resistance and can damage fragile (meaning, "even tinier") components.

So Apple CAN'T put anything else in this tiny box. There's no room for air circulation. If you look at a teardown of an Air at this link you'll see what I mean:

http://www.ifixit.com/Guide/First-Look/Mac/MacBook-Air

Sure, there's some "space" to jam in another USB, but can it handle the thermal load? It would be miniscule, but Apple may be playing the tolerances close to the limit.

Unless the new processor/chipset poses problems (we'll hear about them if they happen) there won't be a design change.

The Air is still a piece of crap. I expect it to have limited market appeal because of all the features it lacks. But it doesn't look like Apple can do anything to make it a more consumer-friendly product.

I was long on this for a while, but now I'm short. I don't think Apple can change the Air because of the technical questions. And I don't think they'll discontinue it by the prop deadline (Nov 31, 2008) because the so-so reaction from reviewers doesn't scream for it's immediate demise.

These issues scream for it's ultimate demise... but probably not for a year.

Almost forgot... software changes....

Popsci has traditionally refected payoff claims that were not "in the spirit of the proposition".

That doesn't mean someone might approve a payoff on the basis of a software change... weird things have happened...

But it's probably a good bet that unless the Air gets offered with a Linux OS or something like that, a software change will not count...

Why would it flop? I mean sure it has no optical drive, a ridiculously small amount of RAM, Memory, and disk space. But that shit can fit in a manila envelope! Can you believe that?! A friggin' envelope!!! Can your laptop do that? I bet not!

//sarcasm.

Show me the envelope.

personally I have read reports of the Air being consistantly sold out. Based on their super bowl ads apple odviosly has confidence in the prduct. For its target market the size, weight and style factors outweigh the lack of functionality. probably software changes wont count. Hardware changes would be difficult and costly. for these reasons i dont think apple will pull/modiffy the product

Jon Stewart had 5 of these on his show recently, all of his correspondents had one in front of them during their election center bit

guys,

I think this is a short. the engineering isn't gonna allow for any hardware changes because of the heat management issue, and they seem to be selling ok to the ijunkies of the world. I also think this is a preview of bigger (smaller?) things to come from apple. hold it short is my thought

The spirit of the prop is that the compromises that Apple made to fit the enclosure are too much to be accepted by consumers. This has obviously not been the case.

However, by November availability of new memory modules, processors, or storage devices may justify a bump to the product line. Is an MBA with a new processor, more RAM, bigger (capacity not physical) hard drive a design change? I would not call it a design change, A design change would involve a change to the enclosure and/or adding/removing features available (but not merely improving the specs of existing features).

...This has obviously not been the case.
The case, get it? the case! Hah ha ha! (inside, I'm laughing so hard that I almost wet myself) (not really) (it wasn't that funny)

hopefully you didn't plopple yourself