GASPRICE and HIGHERGAS

Today it's $3.275

Yeah looking at the current volatility of the price of crude, it loooks like theres isnt enough time for REGULAR gasoline to hit 3.50.......

I just dont think 22 cents on AVERAGE increase for regular gas is not plausible so soon, but with G.W Bush as President anything can happen.....

Looking like short...

Definitely feeling like a short to me.

If only the rest of the market agreed with us... I'm down a lot of money right now.

For your reading pleasure. http://money.cnn.com/2008/03/10/news/economy/gas_prices/index.htm?cnn=yes

I'm going short.

find valgarian

I just went down $8k plus in 15 hrs. We don't even need Vulgarian for this one, but I think a lot of people (or a few with many accounts) need to realize the G.W. would be hard pressed to foul up that badly.

IPO Will OPEC, in gratitude to us for getting rid of Pres. Shrub Jr. lower the price per barrel by at least 15 cents?

Peace through kinetic solutions

Hey everyone. I know you already think it's a short, and after reviewing some info, I think I'm gonna have to agree with you. Please take a look at a post I made at the general forum for my new site at:

http://allmac.ning.com/forum

Under "Environmental Concerns">"Gas Prices", there's a post with an Excel attachment. Check out the data and especially the chart.

Thanks!

ya, i lost almost 10k in that... before it started dropping, i was almost at 1k+ in it.... i had 800 shares but now its only 500... man....

I have the worst timing ever. I went short for 1000 when it first came out, and then watched in horror as I started losing money. I decided to get out when the price had reached $62.5, so that I could short when it peaked. Next day, I found out the price plummeted back to the starting price...and then even lower.

This is going back up, pretty quickly too. It still has 14.3 cents to go before it reaches 3.50. It has been steadily increasing every day by about a penny and a little more. I dont think it's going to go up by 14 cents in 5 days. Anyone else have some insight?

you pretty much summed it up, pso.

Like I said in another post - Doesn't bother me that it's going up. I'll get the same amount when it pays short.

In terms of the prop HIGHERGAS, why in the world did it drop so much yesterday and today? I'm looking at the National Unleaded Average and its going up! In fact, it's now at $3.61 which is listed as its highest ever price?

Am I missing something?

the price of crude is down a lot.
hey, for all the prop-related news check out www.ppxchat.com
It's prefered by 7 out of 10 top-ten PPX players (and myself)

so what you're saying is that even though the price at the pump is going up still, in the next few days/weeks we should see a decrease because price per barrel is decreasing. Hopefully this happens soon

Also, I don't think this prop will pay out long anyway, it has about 39 cents to go and from what I've seen only increasing a penny or so everyday. So 31 days to get 39 cents. There's certainly a chance but I think it'll run into the same problem GASPRICE had and the number of days will run out.

I'll hold out with this even as we loose. I found many Chicago fuel prices at $3.77

prices would ahve to go up $0.015 a day to hit this. short.

I've got it shorted, for a while now. I thought about covering and then reshorting since it's up to the point I've lost 6000, but I think I'll just hunker down and wait for it to pay out at POP$ 0.

Visit the Unofficial PPX Community

gas is up 5.3 cents in the last two days. only has to go up 32.9 cents in the next 22 days to hit 4 bucks.

What I find funny is that people are making a fortune on this stock driving it up and we all know full well gas will drop a dime after the Holiday weekend and see nowhere near 4.00 a gallon by June 1st. I have this at a short and have not sold a share because this stock will close short if history teaches us anything it is we will see a huge MARKET increase on crude right before the big weekend then we will see a drop. Supply and Demand. Only thing I regret is not jumping the scam wagon with the other chuckle heads.

You call us "chuckle heads"? You, my friend, have a lot to learn. Never call a PPX player a "chuckle head." The correct term is "wave rider," which translates into "he who follows stock flips like his life depends upon it," whereas "chuckle head" translates into "Kahomono," and there is only one person here by that handle.

listen, weed, don't count on another 30+ message thread welcoming you when you finally get back into the top 100.

Some children should be neither seen nor heard.

You just took a bug plopple all over my fun!

Dear Kahomono,

I could not resist: One can say the same about some adults like your self. A lot of your comments just does not belong on a civilized forum like this. I know that Milkweed110 (and a few others) from time to time might come with comments towards you, but you're usually the one that started it and then it just turns into a ugly pissing war and we all know that one should only pee in the toilet or in the urinal, but not on the PPX forum. So if Milkweed110 wants to brag about finally making it to the 100 [again :-) ] so let him, no one is forcing you to read his posts, so just skip it.

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Du ska få en dag i mårå som rein og ubrukt står,og med blanke ark og farjestifter tel
(You shall get another day tomorrow that clean and unused stands, and with blank paper and crayons too)
- Alf Prøysen

milkweed forces ME to read his posts...make him stop!

Centrigma: Nobody forces X to read Y's posts is a generalization that certainly holds true for all player_name values of X and Y.

Since this is the first and last (I hope) post I shall ever post that specifically mentions your name, I am wondering why you felt it necessary to have created the occasion for it.

On pso's post: it's true. In the chatroom, I force him to read all my posts and if he doesn't, I call him an "idiot" and a "moron."
@Centrigma: you say: "we all know that one should only pee in the toilet or in the urinal, but not on the PPX forum." well, I must remind you that I am only 14 years old, as Kahomono loves to point out, so pissing with great accuracy is not my strong point, seeing as I just got out of diapers.

Milkweed: LOL, this is one of the reasons why I often look forward to read you posts, you often inject some needed humor. Thank you!

Kahomono: What ever! You know exactly why you where confronted about you "child" comment, it was out of line. I do have to say that there have been occasions where you have had a posting that does make sense and is valid and I appreciate those, but quite often your postings are just not needed, out of line, and inappropriate. I will offer this advice, which you may or may not adhere to: If some one has upset you with a posting or you find something childish and want to fire back at some one, stop, think and just move on. If you do have to post a comment please keep it civilized and use some common sense, there is no need for vulgarities in this forum. We are all here to play a game and to have fun playing it.

PS! For some of our other forum posters, the vulgarity part kind of applies to you to, and you know who you are.
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Du ska få en dag i mårå som rein og ubrukt står,og med blanke ark og farjestifter tel
(You shall get another day tomorrow that clean and unused stands, and with blank paper and crayons too)
- Alf Prøysen

Now lets get back to higher gas prices. Up here in the northwest the prices are over $ 4 a gallon and climbing (getting close to $ 4.10 in most places I pass on the way to work) and it is getting harder and harder to find places under $ 4. The only once left up here are Arco, Safeway and Costco.

How is it in your neck of the woods?

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Du ska få en dag i mårå som rein og ubrukt står,og med blanke ark og farjestifter tel
(You shall get another day tomorrow that clean and unused stands, and with blank paper and crayons too)
- Alf Prøysen

oil has rebounded about a dollar today and I'm flipping back to long.
I think that it's around $4.05 around south-centeral wisconsin.

lol, this is tense. Just a few days left! Price dropped a little bit, but bloomberg says before that it got to 3.994??? I have no shares in it as I've been watching these prices... It's feeling like time to make it a long, but, I'm going to wait and keep checking constantly before buying or shorting any shares.
________
Composer of classical and film/game music; novelist writer of an original scifi universe
http://www.personal.psu.edu/rjf5061
http://www.acidplanet.com/artist.asp?AID=509512

I know what you mean. I am so nervous because this stock has been tipping by so much. I think it will reach $4.00 only because they are changing the gas to summer gas at this time and it will affect the supply and demand of the gas.

I'm pretty sure you get the same gas year round, there is no special "summer gas."

Actually every region has its own formulated gas which is one reason why prices are so high, they have to reconfigure everything to make the next batch of gas. If we could get to a standardized formula that might help elleviate some of the cost.

Well there is no doubt in my mind that we will see $ 4 gas, but will the national average go up by 4.8 cents before Sunday? That I am not so sure about, since it only went up 0.8 cents in the last day according to the AAA survey. There are still 37 states with gas under $ 4 and 35 of those are under the national average, so with today, Friday and Saturday left before it closes I doubt it enough states will move over the $ 4 mark to change the national average to hit $ 4.

I will say this before end of next week we will see the national average hit four dollars.

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Du ska få en dag i mårå som rein og ubrukt står,og med blanke ark og farjestifter tel
(You shall get another day tomorrow that clean and unused stands, and with blank paper and crayons too)
- Alf Prøysen

I agree, $4 is not likely before Sunday.

I would not be surprised to see a small downtick one day before then -- maybe only 0.2c -- but that will be the final nail in the coffin of this prop.

I would agree with Kahomono, scary that, except for the fact we have another weekend before the close. I expect a jump up Friday as a knee jerk reaction to the weekend. I do not know about where you live but that seems to be a common trend around here. It is not going to take much of a jump to push us over $4 after all. As I figure they will halt the prop if the price hits $4 I'm holding long till Saturday no matter what the market does. After that I'll decide which way I'm going to be on Monday.

I can see a bunch of waveriders getting burnt on this one so watch your backs!!

For early risers and Euros, the AAA page containing the daily report is timestamped a few minutes after 3:00 AM most days and actually shows up as new somewhere between 3:45 and 4:30 EDT (8:45 to 9:30 AM BST). That's seven days a week.

Who thinks admins will be up at 4:30 on Sunday morning checking? Or maybe there will be a timed script to halt it at 3:00AM that day no matter what. What I wonder is, if they get the feed of these prices through something like RSS and will halt it any morning the instant a price of $4.000 or more comes over.

Wow. Consider... if only the admins ever read these threads :)

Kubie, prepare for more unwelcome agreement

You're right about the safety of holding it long "when you're not looking." But consider the fact that only one event a day - a new AAA fuel price page - can possibly result in an early halt, and that happens at oh-dark-thirty.

Presuming you're in the USA, it means you can hold it short all day to profit when it's getting pounded (as it is right now), just flip it long before hitting your pillow then check it when you get up.

Of course, if you hold it long at bedtime on May 31 and the June 1 page still says $3.xxx you're screwed, too.

i don't think they'll have a timed script for 3AM, if they have a timed script, it'll be more like 12AM east coast time when the prop is supposed to halt.

Luckily I'm on the west coast so if it's not halted at 10PM my time (1AM east coast time) I know I can just stay up until midnight and check the update...but that's not really fair since this is a predictions market, huh?

On one hand yes, this is a predictions market.

But, it all depends on why you play. If you play for the thrill of passing spots on the leaderboard, I think you have to presume that others trying to pass YOU will drive there Mack trucks through any hole big enough to do so, and the way this facility is run leaves plenty.

So the bottom line is, if you play the way you want, you will get what you want out of it.

If this were a pure prediction market, after all, you'd only ever get to make one trade per stock, right? Long or short. Place your bet, and then stand back and see how it pays. There wouldn't even BE a 'cover' or 'sell' action that you could perform.

I'd actually be just as happy if propositions were not halted until all the information was known. In this case if pso7025 shorts HIGHERGAS as soon as the 6/1 results are posted on fuelgagereport, it will have the effect of driving the price down. I can then choose to cover my short when I get up or wait until others have also read the report and driven the price even lower. When no-one is trading a stock, it should then be de-listed. My opinion.

Gas will not hit $4.00 a gallon. i guarantee it. it is only 3.91 in cleveland, oh. and the average of the whole country has to go up 5 cents in two days. it has been going up on an average of .5 cents a day. it will defiently not hit 4.00. I am going to be so rich!!!!

dane: not sure what you're getting at with your post...this prop would only be halted if gas got over $4.00 before june 1st OR it will be halted june 1st or later.

Looking at your scenario if gas does not reach $4 by 6/1, you would be better to just hold on to your short because you will get the difference between the current price and $0 without having to pay a commission. If you covered your short, you would lose out on a whole bunch of money (if you didn't re-short it, but then you'd lose the $500 on commissions)

Well it only went up 1 cent since yesterday, and I don't think it will bo up 3.8 cents in one day, so I am still staying short on this one. But since I was so burned on the ENDANGERED stock I decided to cash out and re-short the stock that way I've got the gains so far. Yes I know I "lost" $ 500 on the cover and short move, but I feel it's worth it to make sure I got money out of it in case is surprises all of us and jumps up up 4 cents by end of tomorrow.

I do believe that they will have a script to set the stock to HAL automatically at midnight (EST or PST not sure) on Sunday similar to how they halted the SAFELAND stock last Sunday at 6:30 PM PST (I pretty sure that they did not have a person in the office just to halt the stock).

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Du ska få en dag i mårå som rein og ubrukt står,og med blanke ark og farjestifter tel
(You shall get another day tomorrow that clean and unused stands, and with blank paper and crayons too)
- Alf Prøysen

Reshorting is no defense. If the stock pays long and you're holding it short you will still lose the same amount. Plus commissions. The only defense if you're worried about a long payout is to close out your short position and watch.

I thought the same thing but I did the math
Let's assume you have 1 share for simplicity
If the price is at $60 and you short it you have $60 locked up.
If it pays short, you get your $60 back plus another $60 for a total gain of $120.
If it pays long, you lose your $60 and another $40 for a total loss of $100
If you cover and reshort at $30, you get your $60 back plus $30 in gains that you recieved. Now you have $30 locked up.
If it pays short you get your $30 back plus another $30 for total of $60 plus the $60 from reshorting for total of $120 (same as above)
If it pays long, you lose your $30 and another $70 for a total loss of $100 minus the $60 you got back from reshorted means you lost only $40
Unless I am missing something big here, it is a smart move.

"If it pays long, you lose your $60 and another $40 for a total loss of $100"
I think that that statement is wrong. Here's why:
You have $60 invested in the first place. for every buck it goes up, you lose a buck. Therefore, you should lose $40 if it goes to $100. You get $20 back.
What say the other players?

Milkweed is right, if you short at 60 and it pays long, you recover 20 from the shambles.

Ignoring commissions now:

If you short at 60 and it pays long, your loss is not 100 but only 40. Shorting is "selling short." You sell shares you don't have. That's why the scenario where you short at 60 and it pays short grosses you 120, you get out the 60 you got from selling a share you didn't have, and the 60 you locked up to insure against the loss had it gone long.

If you short at 30 and it pays long, there goes the 30 you locked up, the 30 you got from selling the stock and 40 more. Your cash will go down 40 and if it's too low could go negative.

If you shorted at 60 you locked up 60 to insure it. If it goes down to 30 and you reshort, you liberate 60 in cash. 30 of it you put up originally, plus 30 profit on the 60 short sale. But you still have 30 locked in the stock and 30 in unrealised profit potential when it goes to 0. If it now goes to 100, 40 of the 60 cash you liberated on the reshort is taken. You're left with the same 20 from Milk's scenario.

Now. UN-ignoring commissions adds $0.25 to every share for every transaction of any kind. So with the same price movements, more transactions = less profits.

The ONLY reason to reshort is to raise cash for other investments. You increase your risk should the stock pay long, so be pretty certain it won't.

First, I can't believe that Milkweed and Kahomono agreed with each other.
Second, I have now learned something about shorting (Milkweed's comment) that I didn't know before (therefore I did miss something big).
Thank you both.

On Milkweed and me agreeing: Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts.

This is purely a factual matter.

Well, the avg price "jumped" up an entire 1.9 cents to $ 3.971. So it still look like a short.

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Du ska få en dag i mårå som rein og ubrukt står,og med blanke ark og farjestifter tel
(You shall get another day tomorrow that clean and unused stands, and with blank paper and crayons too)
- Alf Prøysen

that was 0.9c 1.9c would have been halfway to $4 from Friday's number. That might have made a long payout look very possible.

Now it's 2.9c to go and seems unlikely to happen.

BUT

In the run-up to Memorial Day Weekend we did have three days that went 2.4c, 4.4c, 3.6c.

well no matter, todays AAA national average fuelgauge is at $3.975,

However I appear to have given PPX to much credit, since it's still in a ACT status. :-(

==========================================
Du ska få en dag i mårå som rein og ubrukt står,og med blanke ark og farjestifter tel
(You shall get another day tomorrow that clean and unused stands, and with blank paper and crayons too)
- Alf Prøysen

Well they better put it on hold soon, cause it's June 1 and though so close, we're not at $4. I've shorted; it's finished. It's been a tense roller coaster. June 1, the price is $3.975!
____
Composer of classical and film/game music; novelist, writer of an original scifi universe
http://www.personal.psu.edu/rjf5061
http://www.acidplanet.com/artist.asp?AID=509512

It finally halted (along with the other 3 that closed this weekend). Payout should be quick for this one.

i guess their script was a day off

@Kahomono (I'm talking to you just this once): Those facts were clearly mine. Go manufacture your own. Goodness knows that there's enough to go around.
For example, your post could have read:
"On Milkweed and me agreeing: Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, and the population of Germany, excluding its colony on mars, is 4,053." I made that fact up just for you.

@Kahomono (I'm talking to you just this once): Those facts were clearly mine. Go manufacture your own. Goodness knows that there's enough to go around.
For example, your post could have read:
"On Milkweed and me agreeing: Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, and the population of Germany, excluding its colony on mars, is 4,053." I made that fact up just for you.

pso: only a day? that's better than we've seen...

Milk, you can't 'own' facts, merely be the first to present the facts, especially in this case where it is a matter of logic and reasoning. There are always others who can come along and better explain the facts you presented first but it doesn't mean they 'stole' your facts but are merely better at communicating. Agreement implies opinion; discussing the same facts is not opinion and is not agreement.

THIS IS ALL THAT KAHOMONO WAS TRYING TO SAY. Can you please stop attacking each other for no reason?

Moving on:
In the spirit of the 'bragging' post, it might be fun to see who had the biggest guts to short at the highest price. I held onto it for a while around $60-$65 but as soon as it started bouncing around, I lost faith and covered at the lowest price I thought reasonable. Got back in and finally shorted around $50 for a final profit of $50,000 (- commission).

I never thought this one would be long so I tried to wave ride this one for a while then decided to wait until it got to the highest price it could before dropping. I shorted on Tuesday at $68.50 and held on for the ride.

Kovenant- I didn't think i needed to do the [/sarcasm] thing because of my reference to Germany's population, which was clearly ficticious.
Kahomono- "Only a day?" your mother wears army boots! (we couldn't agree twice in the same thread)

I'm posting here because for whatever reason I'm not allowed to post a new forum topic.

CA gas prices were at 4.49 at 3AM the morning this prop was introduced 24 hours later the price is 4.53. In the last month alone, CA gas prices have climbed about 50 cents; about a dollar in the previous three months. It's not at all difficult to see the possibility of this prop paying out long…and relatively soon. The prop page links to the AAA page for the national gas price average. Here's a link to the CA average on the AAA site:

http://www.fuelgaugereport.com/CAavg.asp

Good link and good insight. I have a feeling that gas prices will not hit 5 bucks by then but my feelings are bad at predicting gas prices. It could easily happen by July. I went short for now for no good reason at all.