ENDANGERED - Accept Global warming or look for oil in Alaska

I think it's a pretty sure short. Even if the decision isn't delayed by an appeal, they could go the way of the Canadians and list polar bears as being of "special concern", which unless I'm mistaken would not satisfy the payout criteria for this prop.

There's not much to work with here, except for the fact that a lot of oil drilling rights have been sold in the arctic circle (check out the articles on the prop's home page). These rights would have to be canceled and the licensing fees paid back... amounting to billions.

And then there's the Bush administration's horrible record on environmental issues.

Let me see... an administration that couldn't give two turds for the environment, but has consistently sought to expand oil drilling rights.,.. hmm, which way will this go...

In all probability, the DOI will not make polar bears endangered. They'll find a way to soft pedal it, deny it and put the issue up for another court battle.

If the DOI agrees polar bears are endangered, then this would indicate that Bush's anti-environment policies will be collapsing as we come near the end of his tenure. But he's still got a solid two years at the helm. That's not going to happen for awhile.

Short short short. This isn't an environment issue, it's a Bush administration issue, and we know how that goes.

There is no way the polar bears will be added to the endangered species list by mid may. We need to drill in Alaska to secure national independance and national security. But we won't. We haven't built a new refinery since the seventies yet we are helping to starve the world with this biofuel fiasco. Short.

The polar bears are not endangered. Their population has trebled in the last few decades & continues to grow. What other "endangered" species has an increasing population.

As for global warming -- what global warming? The new term is "climate change". Why? Because there hasn't been any global warming since 1998. The globe is now cooling -- which alarmists want us to believe is just a "hiatus", before we return to warming in a decade's time.

Remember a decade? That was supposed to be all the time we had left to act, before we doomed the planet. In fact, that's all the time we've had left for the past 15 years.

The models that tell us that the polar bear is threatened by global warming (sorry, climate change) did not predict the current cooling phase. Either the models are wrong -- or the planet is wrong. I suggest that the models will need to be revised -- starting with some of the basic assumptions.

I suggest revising the planet. Let's assign a few PPXers with too much time on their hands to that task.

Add all of that to the fact that major oil companies are paying constituents of numerous congressmen.

You all should watch the movie "The 11th Hour". It's very enlightening. And shows many ways that are currently available to cut the human footprint.

Matthew, your carbon footprint is so miniscule it is comparible to the insignificance of our planet within the vastness of our universe. I understand and agree with the concept of everybody combining efforts and lowering carbon output but without the cooperation of the newly industrialized countries it is basically pointless. If we COMPLETELY shut off America for 1 whole year we will eliminate almost 20% of emissions of the whole planet. Obviously we could never pull off such a dramatic feat but understanding actual measurements of the worlds actions somehow escapes people like Leonardo.

here's an interesting article on the polar bears. it seems to say that they may not need sea ice to survive and that their numbers may actually be increasing
http://www.aei.org/publications/filter.all,pubID.27971/pub_detail.asp

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Wow. That sounds like something I'll actually check out when I get home today.

Well, whaddaya know. They finally halt an issue promptly when it happens and I get stuck the wrong way on it.

Me too. Therefore, lets make a big stink when it pays out long.

I'm with you Kahomono. Who'd have thought they would have announced days before (if at all).

I was just surfing this morning hoping for early news of a development -- nothing. I caught the tail end of the announcement on NPR and jumped to switch over. No luck, out a big chunk of change. Stupid Polar Bears ;-)

Well, at least they did the right thing, quite possibly a first for this "administration."

That and a big glass of bourbon will console me tonight when I take almost -$60K in the butt.

yeah, I can't drink- I think that I'll just go home and pet my soft new rabbit- not the admin.

I am glad I was wrong, but man will it hurt when the stock is de-listed and they rip $$$ out of my hard earned earnings. :-(

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Du ska få en dag i mårå som rein og ubrukt står,og med blanke ark og farjestifter tel
(You shall get another day tomorrow that clean and unused stands, and with blank paper and crayons too)
- Alf Prøysen

I looked this morning on the prop page to see if there were any articles about it recently but nothing. Then I even went to the DOI's website, looked around, didn't see anything about this and figured I'd keep my short position. First time I held a stock the wrong way...ugh

A first for me too. At least I wasn't the only one. Misery does love company.

This was posted at 2:35 PM just 25 minutes before the offical announcement at 3PM http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=D90LJ3G80&show_article=1
I had only 15 minutes to change my position on it, before the popsci halted it at 3PM.

I sincerelly want to say thanks to MarkH for finding that and post it on the chatroom , I had it Long just minutes before it was halted.

This was posted at 2:35 PM just 25 minutes before the offical announcement at 3PM http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=D90LJ3G80&show_article=1
I had only 15 minutes to change my position on it, before the popsci halted it at 3PM.

I sincerelly want to say thanks to MarkH for finding that and post it on the chatroom , I had it Long just minutes before it was halted.

Wow, this floored me... couldn't believe the Bush administration would endanger the oil leasing rights in the Arctic circle for the sake of the polar bear.

So I did a little post-mortem research (research I should have done in the first place, unfortunately) and read part of the actual Endangered Species Act to see what was up. You can too (doubt you'll want to, it's really boring) at

http://www.fws.gov/endangered/esa/content.html

Here's the bit that would have made the outcome a lot clearer:

"The Secretary may exclude any area from critical habitat if he determines that the benefits of such exclusion outweigh the benefits of specifying such area as part of the critical habitat, unless he determines, based on the best scientific and commercial data available, that the failure to designate such area as critical habitat will result in the extinction of the species concerned. "

http://www.fws.gov/endangered/esa/sec4.html

In other words, areas of can be excluded from a species' protected area if it won't drive the species to extinction, and if the other benefits outweigh the danger posed to the species.

By labeling the polar bear as "threatened" rather than "endangered" (the status implied by the prop's name... gotta pay more attention to this stuff) the Bush administration can continue it's current policies and only face nagging lawsuits and bad press. Which they've been doing all along, in virtually every arena.

And this explains Interior Secretary Dirk Kempthorne's comments that this listing will not threaten oil exploration or the building of power plants in the polar bear's habitat. If polar bears are living elsewhere and not facing imminent extinction, then the areas with oil and other interests can be excluded from the polar bear's "critical habitat."

As for those who changed their positions in the gap between the press announcement and the halt on EXTINCT... shame on you. This is a predictions exchange, and that's cheating.

vulgarian, i think calling it cheating is a bit much...it may go against the intention of the game but there aren't rules stating that once an announcement is made, all trading needs to halt. The thing to remember is that it's a game. I was holding it the wrong way and didn't see the announcement until after it was halted so I lost, stuff happens.

It is morally wrong to flip a stock after the fact. I think that that is- or should be- an unwritten rule.

It just paid out long. oh well.

I'm new to this discussion board but it seems here that you people are more interested in villifying the Bush administration than you are in supporting your own cause. Why can't you just be satisfied that the bears got on the list?

Personally, I'm tired of paying more to fill up my car than I earn. I had to quit my job because I was actually losing money working. I am all for a clean environment and my husband and I are both in the sciences and we know that there are a million possible reasons for the climate changes that have been occurring over the years most of which are probably natural. I'm sure some of it was caused by us, but not to the extent that we are going to destroy the planet.

However, we are going to destroy our country's economy unless we become independent of the middle east's oil. Plus there's an added bonus to our development of our own resources. It's called stick it to the Arabs. If we pull away from them, who do you think other countries would rather buy oil from if we started producing oil? Them or us? The Arabs would go broke and start fighting amongst themselves. The terrorists would lose all power.

I'm not a very politically minded person normally, but this situation has me very upset since I lost my job. I have been working at my hobby and putting it into a business to try to make money at it. I will eventually. I believe we can accomplish everything -- maintain a clean environment and utilize our resources. We have the technology and we have the engineers. We have so many engineers out of work because jobs have gone to other countries. America is in trouble, folks. Let's take her back and put her to work. We are the hardest working people and the smartest people on the planet. I really believe that. And this is probably the wrong forum for me to be writing this in, but so be it. You got me here. I'm a dreamer.