DRYWST

"This proposition will pay out at POP$100 per share if a drought-related state of emergency is declared in any state west of the Mississippi River as posted on the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) and/or Department of the Interior websites by December 31, 2009."

The key parts here are "state of emergency is declared", and that it has to be posted by FEMA or the DOI by the end of this year.

A "state of emergency" is a really extreme thing, only declared after hurricanes, tornadoes, earthquakes, and other SUDDEN disasters.

Check out the FEMA website at "http://www.fema.gov/about/stafact.shtm to get the beaureaucratic double-speak about disaster and emergency declarations. It's a pain to read, but here's the way it works;

First, a state has to declare a state of emergency. Then it has to determine that it does not have the resources to handle it alone. Then it has to put the request to the President. The president then declares an emergency or doesn't (last year in Georgia they had a SEVERE drought, and no state of emergency was declared).

Then the president refers the declaration to the agency that handles that kind of stuff. If the disaster is killing crops, then the declaration goes to the USDA or the Small Business Administration.... not FEMA, not the DOI.

FEMA only gets into the picture if there is catastrophic loss to private property or human life. The DOI only gets involved if the emergency involves national forests and parks or Native American lands.

Check out the FEMA list of emergencies at "http://www.fema.gov/news/disaster_totals_annual.fema
and you'll see FEMA hasn't been involved with a drought in the US at any time.

Now check out the DOI site at "http://www.doi.gov/. Do a search for "drought emergency", or "state of emergency", or whatever. There's plenty of emergencies mentioned, and plenty of drought stuff, but you will not find a reference to where the DOI has annonced a "state of emergency" for drought... ever.

There are only two or three ways this prop will pay off.

The best bet is a drought-induced forest fire that exceeds anything seen in recent history, which would call the DOI into it. But this is yet to happen (even though there were some unbelievable fires last year).

The second is a drought-induced water shortage in Native American lands. This happened a few years ago, where the DOI got involved with drilling new wells.

The final scenario is one involving widespread water panic in an area like Los Angeles or Phoenix, where FEMA is called on to truck in water.

This prop will not be closed under any other circumstances. Every drought emergency declared in the last 30 years has been handled by the USDA and the SBA (except for that one last year in Micronesia that FEMA handled).

This is a short, short, short.