Here's another prop that's taken a sudden jump for almost no reason. It started climbing around October 10 and continues in the absence of any news indicating it's likely to pay out.
Before getting into why this is probably a short, a quick word on the prop itself. The payout line reads "This proposition will pay off at POP$100 per share if a company releases a 48-hour battery by September 2009."
Sure, the article makes it clear that it refers to a laptop battery (it'd be too screwy to interpret it any other way), but the question is a 48 hour battery powering what kind of computer? The 24-hour life touted in the articles about HP's Elitebook is an oversized unit powering a stripped-down laptop with no disc drive and an LCD screen. Hooked up to a Thinkpad that's used to watch DVD's, and this battery will come nowhere near 24 hours on a charge.
So the prop is badly written because it does not specify a computer and what it will be used for.
But putting that aside, let's look at the like cause for the sudden rise in this prop's value. It started it's climb around the same time as an announcement that a start-up company is planning to produce a battery with a 40% longer charge life than today's. Check it out at http://news.cnet.com/8301-1001_3-10062336-92.html?part=rss&subj=news&tag=2547-1_3-0-20
Now let's do the math. A hopped up laptop battery running a low-power laptop can now reach 24 hours. With the new battery extending that life by 40%, then the run time would be a whole 34 HOURS!
That's 14 hours too short.
The article says the battery will make it's debut in 2009 with a major laptop manufacturer. But this is an iffy timetable. ZPower, the startup making the battery, will need to be able to produce enough of the batteries reliably by then... and these batteries have only recently hit the trade shows. That's usually the first step in a long road to market.
Further, since it's a new product with new production requirements and new technology, it's likely there will be bugs to work out and challenges to overcome.
Sure, there could be developments down the line that make this prop possible, but there's nothing in the news or real life to hint it's going to happen... and there's a lot to suggest it won't.
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One final note...
From ZPower's website at http://www.zpowerbattery.com/about/faq.htm
"Right now, the focus is on scaling manufacturing processes to meet high anticipated demand. The ZPower manufacturing process is unique in many respects relative to that of alternative battery technologies. The current work is focused on achieving and maintaining world class quality."
So even though this looks very promising, it is 1.) not a sure thing from the production point of view, and 2.)will not hit the 48 hour mark set by HP's Elitebook.
Further, since the Elitebook uses a custom, large-size battery that sells at a premium to standard batteries, and ZPower plans to sell it's batteries at a premium, it's unlikely they'll make their debut with a battery that carries a price tag two or three times a standard battery... the kind of thing you'd need to do to reach even the 34 hour mark.
This is a short, short, short.
This is classic overreaching by the Popsci prop writers. Again. The description is a nice blurb about how batteries are showing signs of improvement, and then WHAM! They hit over the head with a question that has a monster jump in batter technology and a relatively short time frame.
When writing props like this, the Popsci team needs to decide what direction they are looking to go. Do they want to know when we think a 48 hour laptop battery will come out? If so, a one year time frame seems way too short. Maybe a two or three year time frame would have been better. Or do they want to know what we think will happen in the next year with battery technology? If that's the case, maybe asking will a company come out with a battery that lasts longer than HP battery would be in order.
The Popsci staff gets to see some really cool stuff all the time, and I think that hurts their prop writing abilities. I expect that the players will be able to give them more balanced props going forward.
from Shelton, CT
I wondered if I was responsible for this one, as in the chat room I joked it should pay long as I have a 100ah battery for my telescope that can power my Acer Aspire one for more than 48 hours.
Sure enough, about an hour later, it turned.
Visit www.ppxchat.com A great place to meet PPXers and learn strategy.
That's pretty funny about the telescope battery. I'd bet a fully charged battery pack from a Prius would get you waaaay over 48 hours of PC time.
And when you get down to it, the payoff line doesn't even mention a PC. So if you ignore the whole prop page about it being a PC battery, I could declare my watch battery a winner, because it keeps them hands a-movin for months on end...
Tossed this into Review this prop but this is the right place for it.
With the possiblity of fuel cells for laptops would/should a 48 hour fuel cell meet the conditions of BAT for a 48 hour battery?
I'd say yes in a practical sense, no in a spirit of the prop sense as battery implies a device that stores electricity. However both a fuel cell and a battery would do the same job. Cast your vote, voice your opinion. Inquiring minds, wants to know! I can see this as something that could go either way and would like to see it cleared up now.
K
It wouldn't make sense to include fuel cells in this prop. Fuel cells don't have to store a charge... they can be refueled and will continue running as long as you do so. So ANY fuel cell would technically be a 48 hour power source, as long as it is designed so that you can put more fuel into it. (and there wouldn't be much point in developing one if you couldn't).
And fuel cells are distinctly different from batteries in other ways. Where a dead battery can be recharged electrically, a fuel cell cannot. And the chemical reactions involved in the two devices are different as well.
There's a pretty detailed rundown on how they differ at "http://www.tinhoahoc.com/Battery/cr020730k.pdf
No, this prop clearly states "battery" and leaves no room for other power sources. If you want to include fuel cells, you might as well include solar panels and generators... and by logical extension, wall current.
If you're interested in a prop about fuel cell powered laptops, check out the FCELL prop.
So clearly this prop should pay out long, like the PASSCRX stock. This stock is exactly the same as PASSCRX, except about batteries instead of gas mileage.
Someone please close it long.
So we should continue re-creating the kind of controversy and bad feelings that were stirred up by that prop's closing?
That wouldn't make sense, would it?
Also, this is very different from PASSCRX in that the payout line (once again) specifically states a BATTERY. It does NOT include other power sources like fuel cells, generators, etc. If you read my previous post, a battery is a very different thing from a fuel cell and other power sources. Read the link I posted, it spells it out clearly (if a little technically).
Well, with Vulgarian agreeing with me I feel safe in thinking a battery is a battery and a fuel cell is something else :)
Hmmmm is my pocket handwarmer a fuelcell? I gotta look this up!
Again, more baseless spikes in value with no apparent reason. If HP just released a 24hr battery and no one else claimed to be able to match it what makes anyone think in another 10 months they would have done the research and development to double that lifetime and have it in production and for sale by september? that just isn't possible unless the battery was basically almost ready to go in which case there would be rumors out there about it..of course of which there are none! get a clue people!
I think it's interesting that a couple of the Recent News Stories on the prop page reference GM and green vehicles (especially after that Prius comment above). Just an interesting point.