Despite the optimism of Moore's Law, scientists predict computer chips have just four more years of shrinkage
By Matt Ransford
Posted 03.31.2008 at 3:58 pm
About every two years, transistors shrink in size enough to place double the number on an integrated circuit than was possible during the previous two years. Its held true since the mid-1960s when the idea was first posited by Gordon E. Moore (today, its called Moores Law). If you were to plot the rate on a graph, youd see it come out as an exponential curve. Exponential curves start slowly and then ramp up quickly, theoretically approaching a limit but never reaching it. I say theoretically because in the very practical real world, a limit will always be reached due to environmental feedback. In silicon-based computing (what we use today), that limit may be only four years away.
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