With Appple's announcement today of the new iPod Touch—just as we and many others suspected, an "iPhone without the phone"—the conditions of the NEWIPOD prop on PPX have officially been met. The stock was halted shortly after the announcement at POP$81.00, meaning the market had the probability of the announcement coming before the end of this month at 81%—not too shabby. NEWIPOD will begin to pay out at POP$100 per share immediately.
It's interesting, the picture of Apple painted by NEWIPOD and another proposition that closed recently, SUBPC—which proposed a new Apple sub-portable computer before Labor Day (which obviously didn't happen). Clearly, Apple has shifted a huge amount of their engineering resources to their consumer electronics division, focusing on what has become their specialty in the 21st century: slick, beautifully designed consumer gadgets that are a joy to use no matter what kind of computer you have on your desk at home. So while die-hard Apple users may be clamoring for a compact, UMPC-like Mac, their numbers pale in comparison to the number of folks currently carrying an iPod (and drooling over today's upgraded versions).
When one thinks of a typical Apple user these days, it's not the basement-dwelling, beard-wearing, PC-hating zealot that we all have come to know, love and appreciate. No, the typical Apple product user today is, well, pretty much anyone. Much to Apple's delight, purchasing and using their products no longer feels like being a member of your high school's A/V club—now, it's like being one of the cool (and well-off) kids. Ah, how things change. —John Mahoney