An article in last week’s New York Times must have struck terror into the hearts of readers whose old tube televisions sport rabbit-ear antennas. The punchline: Many of them will be staring at a black screen after next year’s transition from analog to digital television broadcasts—even if they purchased a government-subsidized converter box. And broadcasters are to blame.

The real story, though, is more complicated and harder to predict. So what will happen to your television on February 18, 2009?